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That is just awesome, I go into bitcoin in 2011 or 2012 (in top few hundred users on bitcoin-otc back when price was $4 a pop) and had loads of ideas for servic

That is just awesome, I go into bitcoin in 2011 or 2012 (in top few hundred users on bitcoin-otc back when price was $4 a pop) and had loads of ideas for services (+ accepted bitcoin for years for webhosting) but listened to all negative comments about crypto and spend most of them over years (have a descent stash left) and hence now not a billionaire just a millionaire, but yeh moral of story is not to listen to overly critical nerds who are overly negative about every subject (often just to be edgy/cynical) and just do it!

midasuni 5y ago
For every example like this, how many are there of people failing?
- Isn0gud 5y ago
  Yeah, if you know the future, just play the lottery, its much quicker!
- seriousquestion 5y ago
  Unknown. But we do know that you miss 100% of the shots you don't take.
  - midasuni 5y ago
    You miss 100% of the shots you can’t take because of the high risk play.
sumedh 5y ago
Even if HN would was more pro BTC back in the day you and most others would have sold a majority of BTC when the price started crashing from the 20K USD peak
- hmmokidk 5y ago
  I struggle with this. How do you know when to sell for good? I suppose it is when you predict opinion is going to work against this and public opinion seems a very slow moving thing. Unless some sort of crazy event occurs.
  - sumedh 5y ago
    One signal you can use for selling is if your investment starts giving you sleepless nights. If the value is going down and you constantly think about it then its better to sell instead of letting it affect you mentally.
    - Sammi 5y ago
      You did not afford to buy if you are fretting every short term price move.
      - sumedh 5y ago
        That is not true, you could have bought when the price was low but now when the price is high you are not sure if you want to sell or keep holding.
  - eric_cc 5y ago
    > How do you know when to sell for good? You don't ever sell for good. The goal is to increase BTC not USD. USD is a trap.
  - jameslk 5y ago
    The responses here are surprising. Your trading activity should be based on a strategy with a clear point when you should exit, e.g. you should have a prediction of how high an asset will go and sell when it reaches that point, or some timeline/portfolio risk mix that determines when you sell. And adjust that strategy based on new information (e.g. if you have a credible reason for why that strategy is no longer applicable you should adjust). Everything else is subject to bias and emotion, which is only useful at the casinos. That is, you should NOT sell something because you're becoming emotional drained by it as someone else suggested. That implies you're not fit for managing and investing your own wealth. Don't jump off a rollercoaster while you're still riding it. If you don't know what your strategy would be for bitcoin or some other asset, you should figure that out before trading.
apples_oranges 5y ago
Yes, there's also something about techies that get older that makes them more negative? Thinking of comments on some other websites that have been around longer, such as slashdot.
- benjohnson 5y ago
  Speaking for myself, it’s because I’ve seen a lot of things that not only were leading but the best in the business fail to remain relevant: We not now even using CompuServe on Commodores aver AT&T lines. Modula-2 and Prolog are just footnotes, and Lotus 123 is gone.
- manigandham 5y ago
  Not negative, just more realistic as experience builds up and patterns emerge. It doesn't mean that people can judge everything perfectly, but it is backed up by the fact that the vast majority of new crazy projects don't end up actually doing anything.
  - thathndude 5y ago
    And this project didn’t meet Armstrong’s own projections in 2012. We’re still using that 30-year-old (now 40yo) CC infrastructure primarily.
  - monoideism 5y ago
    Yes, but Bitcoin didn't fit a "pattern". I saw it was going to likely change the world back then, if governments didn't ban together to suppress it (which could have easily happened). And I was > 30 when I got into Bitcoin back in early 2011. I started a crypto business that fizzled out, and then had to sell most of my Bitcoins for medical bills 5 years later (sold the rest for med bills last year - just another way that medical care destroys people's future in this country, also had to liquidate a good part of my retirement). But yeah, it didn't pan out as a payment processor, which is what I was hoping for. But mathematically, it was easy to predict that if things caught on, Bitcoin would go over $10,000. It killed me to sell mine 5 years ago.
FlyingSnake 5y ago
> moral of story is not to listen to overly critical nerds I would say pay attention to overly critical nerds, and see of the opposite could be used to your own benefit.
thathndude 5y ago
Enjoy your millionaire status! Could of, should of, would of!
whydoineedone 5y ago
that's why I try to trust my opinion and ignore everyone else. if I'm wrong then it sucks and I feel dumb but nothing is worse than the feeling of going against your gut and ending up taking an L. if I've never used a service or don't understand it, then my opinion is NO OPINION. I grew up in America, and I feel like we get this idea of sharing our opinions and our takes on stuff drilled into us from school but most of them are not worthwhile. very important to realize this
d_burfoot 5y ago
Cranky nerds are like a dumb baseline ML algorithm that always predicts "false", and is right 95% of the time.

midasuni 5y ago

For every example like this, how many are there of people failing?

Isn0gud 5y ago
Yeah, if you know the future, just play the lottery, its much quicker!
seriousquestion 5y ago
Unknown. But we do know that you miss 100% of the shots you don't take.
- midasuni 5y ago
  You miss 100% of the shots you can’t take because of the high risk play.

sumedh 5y ago

Even if HN would was more pro BTC back in the day you and most others would have sold a majority of BTC when the price started crashing from the 20K USD peak

hmmokidk 5y ago
I struggle with this. How do you know when to sell for good? I suppose it is when you predict opinion is going to work against this and public opinion seems a very slow moving thing. Unless some sort of crazy event occurs.
- sumedh 5y ago
  One signal you can use for selling is if your investment starts giving you sleepless nights. If the value is going down and you constantly think about it then its better to sell instead of letting it affect you mentally.
  - Sammi 5y ago
    You did not afford to buy if you are fretting every short term price move.
    - sumedh 5y ago
      That is not true, you could have bought when the price was low but now when the price is high you are not sure if you want to sell or keep holding.
- eric_cc 5y ago
  > How do you know when to sell for good? You don't ever sell for good. The goal is to increase BTC not USD. USD is a trap.
- jameslk 5y ago
  The responses here are surprising. Your trading activity should be based on a strategy with a clear point when you should exit, e.g. you should have a prediction of how high an asset will go and sell when it reaches that point, or some timeline/portfolio risk mix that determines when you sell. And adjust that strategy based on new information (e.g. if you have a credible reason for why that strategy is no longer applicable you should adjust). Everything else is subject to bias and emotion, which is only useful at the casinos. That is, you should NOT sell something because you're becoming emotional drained by it as someone else suggested. That implies you're not fit for managing and investing your own wealth. Don't jump off a rollercoaster while you're still riding it. If you don't know what your strategy would be for bitcoin or some other asset, you should figure that out before trading.

apples_oranges 5y ago

Yes, there's also something about techies that get older that makes them more negative? Thinking of comments on some other websites that have been around longer, such as slashdot.

benjohnson 5y ago
Speaking for myself, it’s because I’ve seen a lot of things that not only were leading but the best in the business fail to remain relevant: We not now even using CompuServe on Commodores aver AT&T lines. Modula-2 and Prolog are just footnotes, and Lotus 123 is gone.
manigandham 5y ago
Not negative, just more realistic as experience builds up and patterns emerge. It doesn't mean that people can judge everything perfectly, but it is backed up by the fact that the vast majority of new crazy projects don't end up actually doing anything.
- thathndude 5y ago
  And this project didn’t meet Armstrong’s own projections in 2012. We’re still using that 30-year-old (now 40yo) CC infrastructure primarily.
- monoideism 5y ago
  Yes, but Bitcoin didn't fit a "pattern". I saw it was going to likely change the world back then, if governments didn't ban together to suppress it (which could have easily happened). And I was > 30 when I got into Bitcoin back in early 2011. I started a crypto business that fizzled out, and then had to sell most of my Bitcoins for medical bills 5 years later (sold the rest for med bills last year - just another way that medical care destroys people's future in this country, also had to liquidate a good part of my retirement). But yeah, it didn't pan out as a payment processor, which is what I was hoping for. But mathematically, it was easy to predict that if things caught on, Bitcoin would go over $10,000. It killed me to sell mine 5 years ago.

FlyingSnake 5y ago

> moral of story is not to listen to overly critical nerds I would say pay attention to overly critical nerds, and see of the opposite could be used to your own benefit.

thathndude 5y ago

Enjoy your millionaire status! Could of, should of, would of!

whydoineedone 5y ago

that's why I try to trust my opinion and ignore everyone else. if I'm wrong then it sucks and I feel dumb but nothing is worse than the feeling of going against your gut and ending up taking an L. if I've never used a service or don't understand it, then my opinion is NO OPINION. I grew up in America, and I feel like we get this idea of sharing our opinions and our takes on stuff drilled into us from school but most of them are not worthwhile. very important to realize this

d_burfoot 5y ago

Cranky nerds are like a dumb baseline ML algorithm that always predicts "false", and is right 95% of the time.