4 ms·

3rd highest GDP in the world, wonder how much is just that for their pop size they are already super high. Germany looks almost no different, yet I rarely hear

3rd highest GDP in the world, wonder how much is just that for their pop size they are already super high. Germany looks almost no different, yet I rarely hear about German stagnation (could just be me though). As an outsider they seem to have a lot higher quality of life than the US in many ways.

_0ffh 6y ago
Compared to the other nations in the EU Germany is near the top in taxes, near the bottom in median wealth/savings, near the top in productivity, near the bottom in home ownership, near the top in total life-years work until retirement and near the bottom in retirement pension as percentage of the working income. Germany was a wealthy country once, now it's a disgrace for the median citizen. It's bureaucracy is overbearing and inefficient. It's political class at once haughty, arrogant, incompetent, and corrupt. Anyone but big business, the rich and the government paid parasitical classes (politicians, bureaucrats and the state media propagandists) gets fucked all day, every day. Germany is a country in decline. The leadership of the ruling party of the last 16 years is indifferent if not actively hostile towards the common people while the major opposition parties are, if anything, even worse. They have the cool rationality, economic competency and sober long-sightedness of an ethanol-pickeled naked mole rat in a blast furnace. I wish I could believe otherwise, but as things currently stand I fear that Germany is done. It'll just take a few more decades until everyone notices.
- throwaway2037 6y ago
  Wow, this reply is so strong. It sounds like you a person who knows Germany very well. What country do you think is doing any of these things better than Germany? Austria, Switzerland, Belgium, Netherlands, Uruguay, Israel, South Korean, Taiwan, Japan? Please share your thoughts.
mlyle 6y ago
> 3rd highest GDP in the world Yes, and slowly sliding down the list. The demographic one is the real killer. Debt is high compared to their GDP, and their GDP is not growing, and there is a big structural headwind with the population shrinking and getting older. > Germany looks almost no different, yet I rarely hear about German stagnation Germany has smaller versions of the same demographic and growth problems. However, Germany's real GDP has increased by about 30% in the last 20 years, versus Japan managing about 18%. About 50% for the United States. Over the past 30 years: 53%, 32%, 102%.
- nwienert 6y ago
  Must be pretty slow as they haven’t changed positions yet. My stats show Japan looking the same as Germany last 10 years, and near many other European countries.
  - mlyle 6y ago
    Japan's real PPP GDP 4.634T in 2009, 5.261T in 2019 = 13.5% growth in 10 years. Germany 3.696T in 2009, 4.471T in 2019 = 20.9%. Japan grew at 2/3rds the rate of Germany in the last 10 years, against the backdrop of a significantly worse 10 years before that. The shape of the graph looks similar, but the difference between 1.019^n and 1.012^n over a long time is massive. Not to mention that Germany is not particularly healthy. It's rather spectacular if you look at the per capita PPP GDP series, actually-- https://i.imgur.com/eD8cECd.png https://i.imgur.com/eD8cECd.png Yes, it'll be about 23 years at the present pace for Germany to surpass Japan in absolute terms, but Japan has a much larger population and Germany has better prospects for long term growth. Germany's debt is ~60% of GDP, and Japan's is 240%, too, which is pretty terrifying when GDP is not growing much and may begin to contract in absolute terms from demographic changes.
    - nwienert 6y ago
      All well and good, still, the perception and reality I don't think match. I've had this conversation many times where people just instinctually cite 'oh Japan is in decline, doing really poorly, etc', and then I tell them they are 3rd highest GDP in the world, had a huge growth wave in the mid-2010s and I get pikachu-face shocked reactions. Even here, I think you're falling for the meme. Here's a better graph: https://imgur.com/a/2QI5E41 https://imgur.com/a/2QI5E41 It's funny, your graph cuts off right before it, and is a perfect example of extrapolating too soon. It's that one big recession dip, and since then are doing better, and before that doing better. More spurts, higher angles recently.
      - mlyle 6y ago
        My graph cuts off at the same time (2019). I think there is some misunderstanding here about reading a graph for growth rate. Anything that starts off higher is likely to have "higher angles" even if it shows a lower growth rate. Which looking at the numbers, we see-- we already did the arithmetic a couple posts ago. Part of why the per capita series looks so bad: it starts at about the same value so the effect of a higher baseline is not so misleading. The debt to GDP problem, combined with anemic GDP growth and population structural factors that make high growth unlikely for a century, combine to be a big concern that you haven't addressed. Instead you handwave at graphs in a way that doesn't boost anyone's understanding.
throwaway2037 6y ago
Sorry, but I feel GDP is meaningless when discussing quality of life for average people. Example: China is now regularly touted as having the world second largest GDP, recently surpassing Japan. But GDP per capita is more than a decade away from catching up (and that is optomistic). Also, even GDP per capita isn't a very good measurement if wealth distribution is very skews or social mobility is very low.

_0ffh 6y ago

Compared to the other nations in the EU Germany is near the top in taxes, near the bottom in median wealth/savings, near the top in productivity, near the bottom in home ownership, near the top in total life-years work until retirement and near the bottom in retirement pension as percentage of the working income. Germany was a wealthy country once, now it's a disgrace for the median citizen. It's bureaucracy is overbearing and inefficient. It's political class at once haughty, arrogant, incompetent, and corrupt. Anyone but big business, the rich and the government paid parasitical classes (politicians, bureaucrats and the state media propagandists) gets fucked all day, every day. Germany is a country in decline. The leadership of the ruling party of the last 16 years is indifferent if not actively hostile towards the common people while the major opposition parties are, if anything, even worse. They have the cool rationality, economic competency and sober long-sightedness of an ethanol-pickeled naked mole rat in a blast furnace. I wish I could believe otherwise, but as things currently stand I fear that Germany is done. It'll just take a few more decades until everyone notices.

throwaway2037 6y ago
Wow, this reply is so strong. It sounds like you a person who knows Germany very well. What country do you think is doing any of these things better than Germany? Austria, Switzerland, Belgium, Netherlands, Uruguay, Israel, South Korean, Taiwan, Japan? Please share your thoughts.

mlyle 6y ago

> 3rd highest GDP in the world Yes, and slowly sliding down the list. The demographic one is the real killer. Debt is high compared to their GDP, and their GDP is not growing, and there is a big structural headwind with the population shrinking and getting older. > Germany looks almost no different, yet I rarely hear about German stagnation Germany has smaller versions of the same demographic and growth problems. However, Germany's real GDP has increased by about 30% in the last 20 years, versus Japan managing about 18%. About 50% for the United States. Over the past 30 years: 53%, 32%, 102%.

nwienert 6y ago
Must be pretty slow as they haven’t changed positions yet. My stats show Japan looking the same as Germany last 10 years, and near many other European countries.
- mlyle 6y ago
  Japan's real PPP GDP 4.634T in 2009, 5.261T in 2019 = 13.5% growth in 10 years. Germany 3.696T in 2009, 4.471T in 2019 = 20.9%. Japan grew at 2/3rds the rate of Germany in the last 10 years, against the backdrop of a significantly worse 10 years before that. The shape of the graph looks similar, but the difference between 1.019^n and 1.012^n over a long time is massive. Not to mention that Germany is not particularly healthy. It's rather spectacular if you look at the per capita PPP GDP series, actually-- https://i.imgur.com/eD8cECd.png https://i.imgur.com/eD8cECd.png Yes, it'll be about 23 years at the present pace for Germany to surpass Japan in absolute terms, but Japan has a much larger population and Germany has better prospects for long term growth. Germany's debt is ~60% of GDP, and Japan's is 240%, too, which is pretty terrifying when GDP is not growing much and may begin to contract in absolute terms from demographic changes.
  - nwienert 6y ago
    All well and good, still, the perception and reality I don't think match. I've had this conversation many times where people just instinctually cite 'oh Japan is in decline, doing really poorly, etc', and then I tell them they are 3rd highest GDP in the world, had a huge growth wave in the mid-2010s and I get pikachu-face shocked reactions. Even here, I think you're falling for the meme. Here's a better graph: https://imgur.com/a/2QI5E41 https://imgur.com/a/2QI5E41 It's funny, your graph cuts off right before it, and is a perfect example of extrapolating too soon. It's that one big recession dip, and since then are doing better, and before that doing better. More spurts, higher angles recently.
    - mlyle 6y ago
      My graph cuts off at the same time (2019). I think there is some misunderstanding here about reading a graph for growth rate. Anything that starts off higher is likely to have "higher angles" even if it shows a lower growth rate. Which looking at the numbers, we see-- we already did the arithmetic a couple posts ago. Part of why the per capita series looks so bad: it starts at about the same value so the effect of a higher baseline is not so misleading. The debt to GDP problem, combined with anemic GDP growth and population structural factors that make high growth unlikely for a century, combine to be a big concern that you haven't addressed. Instead you handwave at graphs in a way that doesn't boost anyone's understanding.

throwaway2037 6y ago

Sorry, but I feel GDP is meaningless when discussing quality of life for average people. Example: China is now regularly touted as having the world second largest GDP, recently surpassing Japan. But GDP per capita is more than a decade away from catching up (and that is optomistic). Also, even GDP per capita isn't a very good measurement if wealth distribution is very skews or social mobility is very low.