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"An intensive care doctor has warned that only five to 10% of intensive care beds are still available in parts of Germany." In most countries, running at 90% I

"An intensive care doctor has warned that only five to 10% of intensive care beds are still available in parts of Germany." In most countries, running at 90% ICU capacity is the normal state of affairs, Germany being an exception. Of course you can always warn that the health care system is just about to collapse. In 2015: https://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/sep/19/nhs-collapse-former-health-minister-norman-lamb https://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/sep/19/nhs-collapse... In 2016: https://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/sep/10/hospitals-on-brink-of-collapse-say-health-chiefs https://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/sep/10/hospitals-on... In 2017: https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/feb/20/nhs-at-breaking-point-according-to-british-medical-association https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/feb/20/nhs-at-break... In 2018: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/apr/06/nhs-failure-health-service https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/apr/06/nhs-fa... In 2019: https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/dec/02/nhs-winter-crisis-extra-beds-created-by-52-per-cent-of-uk-hospitals https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/dec/02/nhs-winter-c... In 2020: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/21/doctors-warn-coronavirus-could-overwhelm-nhs-intensive-care https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/21/doctors-warn-c... In 2021: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/09/nhs-counts-the-cost-of-christmas-in-lives-and-warns-worst-is-yet-to-come https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/09/nhs-counts-the... Spoiler: The NHS did not collapse. Working right at the brink of collapse is normal. > It didn't help in the sense that hospitals are overcapacity and new cases, hospitalisation and death rates were still exploding until the recent pseudo-lockdown. According to your own source, hospitals are not over capacity. If you had a few super spreader events, that could obviously change rather quickly. Whether a "pseudo-lockdown" meaningfully slows spread is not so obvious.

robbiep 6y ago
It’s absolutely true that ICU capacity generally runs at 90% utilisation - ICU beds are bloody expensive (staffing etc). In NSW, Australia, where I live and work (and have worked in ICU) there is a statewide ICU service so if you need a bed and you’re on the other end of the state you can end up getting transferred 1500 km to be in one. Having said that about utilisation, what pandemic beds requirements meant in the rest of the world and would have meant here is that no elective surgeries could be performed; leukaemia/cancer patient stem cell/marrow transplants couldn’t go ahead and trauma victims risked not being able to be cared for. This was absolutely the case in the UK during the height of things (friends are ortho/trauma surgeons over there and ended up working as assistants in nursing for 3-4 weeks in January). So, with increase in ICU bed availability through adding new beds and with stopping any potential procedures that would electively require an ICU bed for recovery countries were able to basically meet demands (although many of my emergency colleagues in the UK reported having to determine who was going to be for ICU or not - ie top level care was not offered to some people during the height due to lack of resources) - there is now a massive backlog of patients requiring their baseline care to be fulfilled. For example, another of my colleague’s mothers is a (retired) dermatologist in London. She was pulled back into work because there are now people presenting eith melanomas that were missed because no one was going for their regular care early in the year. And now they’ve spread and now people are dying because of this; not to mention the backup. There’s no silver lining here.
- nickthemagicman 6y ago
  You moved the goal post to encompass elective surgeries and other things. The argument was: Did the hospitals overflow from Covid? And they did not overflow anywhere in the world.
  - EdwardCoffin 6y ago
    From the CBC: The latest on the coronavirus outbreak for April 20 [1] > New Toronto field hospital prepares to accept patients as ICUs overflow > Greater Toronto Area hospitals are so overwhelmed due to record COVID-19 admissions that some patients are being transferred to health-care centres outside the region. [1] https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/coronavirus-newsletter-april-9-1.5995057 https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/coronavirus-newsletter-april-...
    - nickthemagicman 6y ago
      Covid zealots say #believeTheSciene but the use the news media as scientific sources. Post an actual link to ICU numbers if you truly '#believeTheScience' Here I did it for you. https://www.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=078a3d697aa245778b6a62a20320a344 https://www.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=078a3... Do your own data analysis and see ICU admissions are only up 15% or so. Also, according to other media outlets, ICUs in Toronto haven't filled up, they're 'NEAR capacity'.....which has been the story for over a year everywhere. The media drums things up to make money and should not be used as evidence for your argument. The media also said San Diego ICUs and Houston ICUs were overflowing but it didn't happen. For example, this sensation article never happened: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/our-hospitals-are-overflowing-san-diego-icu-nurse-describes-covid-19-hospitalizations/2463510/%3famp https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/... Do you have anything supporting your argument of hospital overflow with substance? Or do you get all of your 'science' from the news media?
      - EdwardCoffin 6y ago
        I'm not posting to try to convince you, as you're clearly beyond reason. I just find some aspects of your comments here interesting, and worth laying out for any third party who might read them. First you attacked a comment (above), claiming they'd moved goalposts in their arguments, and then you claimed hospitals had not overflowed. Subsequently, you responded to a comment providing a citation saying they did, by demanding a different source - which is moving the goalposts, the very thing you criticized in someone else. Here, look at this, another article showing Indian hospitals have overflowed, this time from Reuters: > Indian hospitals turn away patients in COVID-19 ‘tsunami’ [1] This is relevant because you yourself consider Reuters a citable source, at least when you like what it is saying [2]. That comment you cited Reuters in reminded me of another of your comments [3] (I actually did mark your words, as requested): > Mark my words America is heading towards herd immunity as long as we stay this course, and this will be all over by the end of the year. (you, eight months ago) How's that herd immunity coming along? Was it all over by the end of the year? [1] https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indias-daily-coronavirus-cases-climb-new-world-record-hospitals-buckle-2021-04-24/ https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indias-daily-coronavirus... [2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26732877 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26732877 [3] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24277509 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24277509
DanBC 6y ago
You're ignoring the reality, which is that people died preventable death and suffered preventable harm because hospitals were overwhelemed. There are thousands of English HCPs talking about this. Here's one: https://twitter.com/seahorse4000/status/1386263023900319745?s=20 https://twitter.com/seahorse4000/status/1386263023900319745?... (That comment about staff is for their particular NHS trust, not the NHS as a whole) We rationed oxygen We shut the hospital I was managing icu pts on amu We stopped elective surgery We had over 400 staff off with covid I had 9 pts die on a single shift
- nickthemagicman 6y ago
  Using twitter and the mainstream media are the new scientific sources.
  - DanBC 6y ago
    interesting that you don't level the same at parent poster.
    - nickthemagicman 6y ago
      Parent poster was using links to mock the news media and evidence how unreliable and hypocritical they are. You are using an anecdotal Tweet as an actual epidemiological citation. It's very interesting to me how low the bar is for the Covid zealots scientific sources!

robbiep 6y ago

It’s absolutely true that ICU capacity generally runs at 90% utilisation - ICU beds are bloody expensive (staffing etc). In NSW, Australia, where I live and work (and have worked in ICU) there is a statewide ICU service so if you need a bed and you’re on the other end of the state you can end up getting transferred 1500 km to be in one. Having said that about utilisation, what pandemic beds requirements meant in the rest of the world and would have meant here is that no elective surgeries could be performed; leukaemia/cancer patient stem cell/marrow transplants couldn’t go ahead and trauma victims risked not being able to be cared for. This was absolutely the case in the UK during the height of things (friends are ortho/trauma surgeons over there and ended up working as assistants in nursing for 3-4 weeks in January). So, with increase in ICU bed availability through adding new beds and with stopping any potential procedures that would electively require an ICU bed for recovery countries were able to basically meet demands (although many of my emergency colleagues in the UK reported having to determine who was going to be for ICU or not - ie top level care was not offered to some people during the height due to lack of resources) - there is now a massive backlog of patients requiring their baseline care to be fulfilled. For example, another of my colleague’s mothers is a (retired) dermatologist in London. She was pulled back into work because there are now people presenting eith melanomas that were missed because no one was going for their regular care early in the year. And now they’ve spread and now people are dying because of this; not to mention the backup. There’s no silver lining here.

nickthemagicman 6y ago
You moved the goal post to encompass elective surgeries and other things. The argument was: Did the hospitals overflow from Covid? And they did not overflow anywhere in the world.
- EdwardCoffin 6y ago
  From the CBC: The latest on the coronavirus outbreak for April 20 [1] > New Toronto field hospital prepares to accept patients as ICUs overflow > Greater Toronto Area hospitals are so overwhelmed due to record COVID-19 admissions that some patients are being transferred to health-care centres outside the region. [1] https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/coronavirus-newsletter-april-9-1.5995057 https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/coronavirus-newsletter-april-...
  - nickthemagicman 6y ago
    Covid zealots say #believeTheSciene but the use the news media as scientific sources. Post an actual link to ICU numbers if you truly '#believeTheScience' Here I did it for you. https://www.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=078a3d697aa245778b6a62a20320a344 https://www.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=078a3... Do your own data analysis and see ICU admissions are only up 15% or so. Also, according to other media outlets, ICUs in Toronto haven't filled up, they're 'NEAR capacity'.....which has been the story for over a year everywhere. The media drums things up to make money and should not be used as evidence for your argument. The media also said San Diego ICUs and Houston ICUs were overflowing but it didn't happen. For example, this sensation article never happened: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/our-hospitals-are-overflowing-san-diego-icu-nurse-describes-covid-19-hospitalizations/2463510/%3famp https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/... Do you have anything supporting your argument of hospital overflow with substance? Or do you get all of your 'science' from the news media?
    - EdwardCoffin 6y ago
      I'm not posting to try to convince you, as you're clearly beyond reason. I just find some aspects of your comments here interesting, and worth laying out for any third party who might read them. First you attacked a comment (above), claiming they'd moved goalposts in their arguments, and then you claimed hospitals had not overflowed. Subsequently, you responded to a comment providing a citation saying they did, by demanding a different source - which is moving the goalposts, the very thing you criticized in someone else. Here, look at this, another article showing Indian hospitals have overflowed, this time from Reuters: > Indian hospitals turn away patients in COVID-19 ‘tsunami’ [1] This is relevant because you yourself consider Reuters a citable source, at least when you like what it is saying [2]. That comment you cited Reuters in reminded me of another of your comments [3] (I actually did mark your words, as requested): > Mark my words America is heading towards herd immunity as long as we stay this course, and this will be all over by the end of the year. (you, eight months ago) How's that herd immunity coming along? Was it all over by the end of the year? [1] https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indias-daily-coronavirus-cases-climb-new-world-record-hospitals-buckle-2021-04-24/ https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indias-daily-coronavirus... [2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26732877 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26732877 [3] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24277509 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24277509

DanBC 6y ago

You're ignoring the reality, which is that people died preventable death and suffered preventable harm because hospitals were overwhelemed. There are thousands of English HCPs talking about this. Here's one: https://twitter.com/seahorse4000/status/1386263023900319745?s=20 https://twitter.com/seahorse4000/status/1386263023900319745?... (That comment about staff is for their particular NHS trust, not the NHS as a whole) We rationed oxygen We shut the hospital I was managing icu pts on amu We stopped elective surgery We had over 400 staff off with covid I had 9 pts die on a single shift

nickthemagicman 6y ago
Using twitter and the mainstream media are the new scientific sources.
- DanBC 6y ago
  interesting that you don't level the same at parent poster.
  - nickthemagicman 6y ago
    Parent poster was using links to mock the news media and evidence how unreliable and hypocritical they are. You are using an anecdotal Tweet as an actual epidemiological citation. It's very interesting to me how low the bar is for the Covid zealots scientific sources!