7 ms·

I know lots of really smart software people who avoided crypto because it didnt and still doesnt “make sense”. But we all didnt invest on the merit of the techn

I know lots of really smart software people who avoided crypto because it didnt and still doesnt “make sense”. But we all didnt invest on the merit of the technology. We forgot the whole “how will people behave” part and lost out on millions.

Ekaros 5y ago
I feel myself as value investor. That is why cryptos or Tesla and many other tech companies never made sense to me... I might be right one day, but currently it seems that market is what market is.
- cwkoss 5y ago
  Everything seems so overinflated right now. As a value investor, what looks good currently?
  - ignoramous 5y ago
    $NET if you're looking for slightly undervalued tech stocks. The recently announced products to take on zscaler, crowdstrike et al looks commendable whilst they are also at the same time going after the cloud incumbents with Workers. I'd reckon, they've got the engineering chops and the infrastructure to bat both those out of the park.
- rawtxapp 5y ago
  To me, value investing is when you already have a good idea of what something is worth, but it's trading below that value. That's great strategy if you know and understand a certain sector. It's very difficult to value futuristic things, it might succeed beyond our wildest dreams or completely flop.
tootie 5y ago
It still makes no sense to me. It makes sense in the sense that if people believe in it it becomes real. But I don't get why people believe in it. And frankly I'm still pretty skeptical that it's being floated by more than money laundering.
- rawtxapp 5y ago
  One thing is, crypto is at the intersection of many disciplines at once, tech/finance/economy/psychology/game theory, etc. I'd if you try to start with a clean slate and no biases against it from the get go, spend some time researching and understanding it alonside what money is and it's history, etc. You'll probably start to see some usefulness to it.
  - tootie 5y ago
    I understand a lot of that stuff. I think the last 10 years have very thoroughly vindicated fiat currencies and central banking. The fact that we powered through the last financial crisis without inflation and the biggest pain was inflicted by austerity policies in Europe made it all pretty unequivocal. Crypto is powering close to zero of the mainstream economy. Nobody got a bitcoin bailout. The "money" isn't flowing. I've seen multiple big Wall Street banks say they're going to start using blockchains for whatever and fail to get any traction. It's great for avoiding taxes or buying drugs but I haven't seen any other practical application. The game theory aspect is probably very relevant. There's a lot of FOMO driving speculators into the frenzy.
    - rawtxapp 5y ago
      > The fact that we powered through the last financial crisis without inflation... If you trust those metrics, yes everything is perfect. Prices at grocery might not have inflated, but assets certainly have, real estate is crazy expensive, stock market P/E ratios have also exploded. For the working class whose income has relatively stayed stable, it means life is a lot harder. The money is very much flowing in the crypto world, just look at DeFi, it has more or less the equivalent services available elsewhere, but everyone has access, you don't need trust, it has large volumes and billions of dollars in capital in these protocols. It's great if you want a predictable global monetary system not controlled by any single entity. If you don't see any value in that (as in you really trust your gov and the politicians/bankers), I don't think there's anything I could tell you to convince you otherwise.
- dogman144 5y ago
randomopining 5y ago
That was me. But tbh I do now see the value of Bitcoin specifically, in a zero-sum deflationary sense. But the environmental cost doesn't really make it worth it. Defi could make sense... but I think people underestimate the value of a physical bank with real people running the show. But a lot of rent extraction too... so idk.

Ekaros 5y ago

I feel myself as value investor. That is why cryptos or Tesla and many other tech companies never made sense to me... I might be right one day, but currently it seems that market is what market is.

cwkoss 5y ago
Everything seems so overinflated right now. As a value investor, what looks good currently?
- ignoramous 5y ago
  $NET if you're looking for slightly undervalued tech stocks. The recently announced products to take on zscaler, crowdstrike et al looks commendable whilst they are also at the same time going after the cloud incumbents with Workers. I'd reckon, they've got the engineering chops and the infrastructure to bat both those out of the park.
rawtxapp 5y ago
To me, value investing is when you already have a good idea of what something is worth, but it's trading below that value. That's great strategy if you know and understand a certain sector. It's very difficult to value futuristic things, it might succeed beyond our wildest dreams or completely flop.

tootie 5y ago

It still makes no sense to me. It makes sense in the sense that if people believe in it it becomes real. But I don't get why people believe in it. And frankly I'm still pretty skeptical that it's being floated by more than money laundering.

rawtxapp 5y ago
One thing is, crypto is at the intersection of many disciplines at once, tech/finance/economy/psychology/game theory, etc. I'd if you try to start with a clean slate and no biases against it from the get go, spend some time researching and understanding it alonside what money is and it's history, etc. You'll probably start to see some usefulness to it.
- tootie 5y ago
  I understand a lot of that stuff. I think the last 10 years have very thoroughly vindicated fiat currencies and central banking. The fact that we powered through the last financial crisis without inflation and the biggest pain was inflicted by austerity policies in Europe made it all pretty unequivocal. Crypto is powering close to zero of the mainstream economy. Nobody got a bitcoin bailout. The "money" isn't flowing. I've seen multiple big Wall Street banks say they're going to start using blockchains for whatever and fail to get any traction. It's great for avoiding taxes or buying drugs but I haven't seen any other practical application. The game theory aspect is probably very relevant. There's a lot of FOMO driving speculators into the frenzy.
  - rawtxapp 5y ago
    > The fact that we powered through the last financial crisis without inflation... If you trust those metrics, yes everything is perfect. Prices at grocery might not have inflated, but assets certainly have, real estate is crazy expensive, stock market P/E ratios have also exploded. For the working class whose income has relatively stayed stable, it means life is a lot harder. The money is very much flowing in the crypto world, just look at DeFi, it has more or less the equivalent services available elsewhere, but everyone has access, you don't need trust, it has large volumes and billions of dollars in capital in these protocols. It's great if you want a predictable global monetary system not controlled by any single entity. If you don't see any value in that (as in you really trust your gov and the politicians/bankers), I don't think there's anything I could tell you to convince you otherwise.
dogman144 5y ago

randomopining 5y ago

That was me. But tbh I do now see the value of Bitcoin specifically, in a zero-sum deflationary sense. But the environmental cost doesn't really make it worth it. Defi could make sense... but I think people underestimate the value of a physical bank with real people running the show. But a lot of rent extraction too... so idk.