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Your point is orthogonal to the stagnation issue. Yes, Japan is still a wonderful place to live, the best in the world I’d personally say. But it is most certai

Your point is orthogonal to the stagnation issue. Yes, Japan is still a wonderful place to live, the best in the world I’d personally say. But it is most certainly stagnating. There’s enough momentum, cultural advantage, and existing wealth to continue to carry it forward for quite a while, but the energy and ambition is gone. That’s what GP was describing and that’s what the Yamauchi family is targeting. I also love the gesture, but it obviously won’t do much on the grand scale. Not even the massive 2011 disaster was enough to light the fire again.

throwaway2037 6y ago
Thank you for your honest reply. Here is a thought experiment about growth: What if Google never grew again, but maintained the same revenues and profits going forward? To be clear: Their stock price would crash because portfolio theory teaches us that stock price is an indication of future earnings growth. This is what Japan looks like in my mind: Very rich and developed by global standards, but mostly economically stagnant. "Not even the massive 2011 disaster was enough to light the fire again." Zero trolling: Are you aware of the special tax for reconstruction in Japan? (I pay it.) It runs for 40 or 50 years and will collect billions (USD) to rebuild and reinvigorate the affected regions. I went on a road trip through Iwate prefecture 2.5 years ago. They are rebuilding. Yes, most places feel like eerie "potemkin villages", but I am confident they can rebuild.
- aikinai 6y ago
  I completely agree with your first point; that's a good analogy. Japan is very successful and stable, but shows no signs of future growth potential. I wasn't talking about rebuilding after the disaster; I know they're doing that (and I also pay the tax). I was talking about lighting the fire of ambition and innovation in Japan again. At the time I had hope that the scale of the disaster and impact on the nation's psyche might be enough to awaken the spirit again like the Meiji Restoration or the Economic Miracle. However, all that happened is they committed to rebuilding and turned off a lot of the lights.
- kaesar14 6y ago
  Well in your thought experiment, Google choosing to shift priorities away from growth towards stability could ultimately lead to being dethroned as other companies seek to undercut them through competition.
- tlear 6y ago
  Rebuilding is not a problem. It is the birth rate that is a problem. Tokyo is vacuuming everyone from countryside. You get some refugees in their 30s moving back but it is a trickle. This fund is a typical Japanese corporate bullshit. You can see who manages it an know everything you need to. They could just pay 10mil yen stipend per child after second and it would be far more effective. Japan needs young people, period. Not more taxes, infrastructure etc I lived in Japan for a while, loved it. But the crash when it comes in 10-20years as countryside disintegrates is going to be horrific.
  - throwaway2037 6y ago
    Sorry for my late reply. This comment is brilliant: <<They could just pay 10mil yen stipend per child after second and it would be far more effective. Japan needs young people, period. Not more taxes, infrastructure etc>> I agree: A massive child bonus might really shift the mindset of couples to have another child. At the very least, it would be a humane, worthy social experiment, akin to universal basic income. I wonder what (South) Korea and Italy are going to do. Their demographics are looking more and more like Japan everyday.

throwaway2037 6y ago

Thank you for your honest reply. Here is a thought experiment about growth: What if Google never grew again, but maintained the same revenues and profits going forward? To be clear: Their stock price would crash because portfolio theory teaches us that stock price is an indication of future earnings growth. This is what Japan looks like in my mind: Very rich and developed by global standards, but mostly economically stagnant. "Not even the massive 2011 disaster was enough to light the fire again." Zero trolling: Are you aware of the special tax for reconstruction in Japan? (I pay it.) It runs for 40 or 50 years and will collect billions (USD) to rebuild and reinvigorate the affected regions. I went on a road trip through Iwate prefecture 2.5 years ago. They are rebuilding. Yes, most places feel like eerie "potemkin villages", but I am confident they can rebuild.

aikinai 6y ago
I completely agree with your first point; that's a good analogy. Japan is very successful and stable, but shows no signs of future growth potential. I wasn't talking about rebuilding after the disaster; I know they're doing that (and I also pay the tax). I was talking about lighting the fire of ambition and innovation in Japan again. At the time I had hope that the scale of the disaster and impact on the nation's psyche might be enough to awaken the spirit again like the Meiji Restoration or the Economic Miracle. However, all that happened is they committed to rebuilding and turned off a lot of the lights.
kaesar14 6y ago
Well in your thought experiment, Google choosing to shift priorities away from growth towards stability could ultimately lead to being dethroned as other companies seek to undercut them through competition.
tlear 6y ago
Rebuilding is not a problem. It is the birth rate that is a problem. Tokyo is vacuuming everyone from countryside. You get some refugees in their 30s moving back but it is a trickle. This fund is a typical Japanese corporate bullshit. You can see who manages it an know everything you need to. They could just pay 10mil yen stipend per child after second and it would be far more effective. Japan needs young people, period. Not more taxes, infrastructure etc I lived in Japan for a while, loved it. But the crash when it comes in 10-20years as countryside disintegrates is going to be horrific.
- throwaway2037 6y ago
  Sorry for my late reply. This comment is brilliant: <<They could just pay 10mil yen stipend per child after second and it would be far more effective. Japan needs young people, period. Not more taxes, infrastructure etc>> I agree: A massive child bonus might really shift the mindset of couples to have another child. At the very least, it would be a humane, worthy social experiment, akin to universal basic income. I wonder what (South) Korea and Italy are going to do. Their demographics are looking more and more like Japan everyday.