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Not GP, here is my thesis. Right now, on coinbase, rate of bitcoin purchases paid in dollars > rate of dollars purchased in bitcoin. Anyone who wants to exit b
by dilippkumar 5y ago
Not GP, here is my thesis.
Right now, on coinbase, rate of bitcoin purchases paid in dollars > rate of dollars purchased in bitcoin. Anyone who wants to exit bitcoin today is getting dollars from people buying into bitcoin.
When this changes (for whatever reason), coinbase and other exchanges have a limited capacity to buy back bitcoins for dollars, assuming they would even want to do that in the middle of a run on crypto exchanges.
If bitcoin was a viable currency, then people buying bitcoin today would never want to trade it back for dollars. But that’s not happening- everyone still buys groceries, coffee, gas, tools and computer software with dollars. A run on coinbase is a problem when bitcoin is an “investment” and not an actively used currency.
Finally, Monero has shown that there is still plenty of room for innovation beyond what bitcoin currently implements. If crypto currencies are the future, already Monero looks like a more viable option than btc (note that all the illegal stuff that used to happen with btc is now happening with xmr on the dark web). It’s very possible that even Monero isn’t the final incarnation of the ultimate crypto currency and something even better will replace it one day.
A new crypto doesn’t threaten people who want to transact with that currency. Everyone on the darkweb markets switched from btc to xmr and business continues as usual, and it will continue even when the next evolution arrives. But those who see it as a store of value are at the mercy of everyone else buying that currency more than how much everyone else is selling- a classic ponzi scheme.
- OscarCunningham 5y ago"rate of bitcoin purchases paid in dollars > rate of dollars purchased in bitcoin" Why don't these two numbers have to be equal?
- dilippkumar 5y ago“Rate” here meant the first derivative of the number of transactions. Not the “btc <—> usd exchange rate” An equivalent way to say the same thing is: “number of bitcoins being purchased with USD per hour > number of USDs being purchased with bitcoin per hour”.
- OscarCunningham 5y agoThere's one buyer and one seller in every transaction.
- dilippkumar 5y agoRight. One of them is coinbase.