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The secret to not having hospitals overwhelmed is to have enough capacity in the first place, but also to avoid superspreader events. Sweden did ban some gather

The secret to not having hospitals overwhelmed is to have enough capacity in the first place, but also to avoid superspreader events. Sweden did ban some gatherings and they did close down schools briefly. Most other lockdown measures are questionable at best, including mandatory mask usage. They are clearly symbolic tools for the political class to signal that something is being done, but the data to support them is not very strong considering that there is not much of a control group.

sofixa 6y ago
> The secret to not having hospitals overwhelmed is to have enough capacity in the first place Enough for what? Hospital capacity was wildly sufficient for regular times, but the pandemic turned that around. Even Germany, which has multiple times the capacity per capita than France, is struggling in that regard. What is "enough"? > but also to avoid superspreader events Lol. Events with more than 2000 people outside ( at the best of times, usually it has been flat out forbidden), and 6-100 inside have been forbidden in France since last year. That obviously didn't help. > Most other lockdown measures are questionable at best, including mandatory mask usage. They are clearly symbolic tools for the political class to signal that something is being done, but the data to support them is not very strong considering that there is not much of a control group. There is, check the US and Brazil.
- incrudible 6y ago
  > Enough for what? Hospital capacity was wildly sufficient for regular times, but the pandemic turned that around. Indeed, "enough" for normal times is not the same as "enough" for pandemic times. > Even Germany, which has multiple times the capacity per capita than France, is struggling in that regard. What is "enough"? Of course it's a "struggle" to suddenly work at capacity, but Germany wasn't in the situation of having to turn down patients. To the contrary, Germany was able to pick up patients from neighboring countries. That's "enough". > Events with more than 2000 people outside ( at the best of times, usually it has been flat out forbidden), and 6-100 inside have been forbidden in France since last year. That obviously didn't help. How do you know that it didn't help? We know from epidemiological studies that superspreader events were responsible for causing a surge of cases in a short amount of time. > There is, check the US and Brazil. There really isn't, we have countries with strong lockdowns doing poorly and countries with weak lockdowns doing relatively well, and everything in between. Lockdown measures are also difficult to compare, as are populations, as is testing and reporting. For example, Brazil with minimal lockdowns is doing just as poorly as Peru, with heavy lockdowns. Florida is doing better than many other US states with heavier restrictions. Japan is supposedly doing well with few restrictions, but also performs little testing. There are lots of variables and unknowns here and one can always cherrypick data to argue for or against lockdowns in various forms.
  - sofixa 6y ago
    That was during the first lockdown. More recently, they're closer to capacity: https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-digest-germany-icu-capacity-at-critical-level/a-55912261 https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-digest-germany-icu-capacit... > How do you know that it didn't help? We know from epidemiological studies that superspreader events were responsible for causing a surge of cases in a short amount of time. It didn't help in the sense that hospitals are overcapacity and new cases, hospitalisation and death rates were still exploding until the recent pseudo-lockdown.
    - incrudible 6y ago
      "An intensive care doctor has warned that only five to 10% of intensive care beds are still available in parts of Germany." In most countries, running at 90% ICU capacity is the normal state of affairs, Germany being an exception. Of course you can always warn that the health care system is just about to collapse. In 2015: https://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/sep/19/nhs-collapse-former-health-minister-norman-lamb https://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/sep/19/nhs-collapse... In 2016: https://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/sep/10/hospitals-on-brink-of-collapse-say-health-chiefs https://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/sep/10/hospitals-on... In 2017: https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/feb/20/nhs-at-breaking-point-according-to-british-medical-association https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/feb/20/nhs-at-break... In 2018: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/apr/06/nhs-failure-health-service https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/apr/06/nhs-fa... In 2019: https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/dec/02/nhs-winter-crisis-extra-beds-created-by-52-per-cent-of-uk-hospitals https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/dec/02/nhs-winter-c... In 2020: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/21/doctors-warn-coronavirus-could-overwhelm-nhs-intensive-care https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/21/doctors-warn-c... In 2021: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/09/nhs-counts-the-cost-of-christmas-in-lives-and-warns-worst-is-yet-to-come https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/09/nhs-counts-the... Spoiler: The NHS did not collapse. Working right at the brink of collapse is normal. > It didn't help in the sense that hospitals are overcapacity and new cases, hospitalisation and death rates were still exploding until the recent pseudo-lockdown. According to your own source, hospitals are not over capacity. If you had a few super spreader events, that could obviously change rather quickly. Whether a "pseudo-lockdown" meaningfully slows spread is not so obvious.

sofixa 6y ago

> The secret to not having hospitals overwhelmed is to have enough capacity in the first place Enough for what? Hospital capacity was wildly sufficient for regular times, but the pandemic turned that around. Even Germany, which has multiple times the capacity per capita than France, is struggling in that regard. What is "enough"? > but also to avoid superspreader events Lol. Events with more than 2000 people outside ( at the best of times, usually it has been flat out forbidden), and 6-100 inside have been forbidden in France since last year. That obviously didn't help. > Most other lockdown measures are questionable at best, including mandatory mask usage. They are clearly symbolic tools for the political class to signal that something is being done, but the data to support them is not very strong considering that there is not much of a control group. There is, check the US and Brazil.

incrudible 6y ago
> Enough for what? Hospital capacity was wildly sufficient for regular times, but the pandemic turned that around. Indeed, "enough" for normal times is not the same as "enough" for pandemic times. > Even Germany, which has multiple times the capacity per capita than France, is struggling in that regard. What is "enough"? Of course it's a "struggle" to suddenly work at capacity, but Germany wasn't in the situation of having to turn down patients. To the contrary, Germany was able to pick up patients from neighboring countries. That's "enough". > Events with more than 2000 people outside ( at the best of times, usually it has been flat out forbidden), and 6-100 inside have been forbidden in France since last year. That obviously didn't help. How do you know that it didn't help? We know from epidemiological studies that superspreader events were responsible for causing a surge of cases in a short amount of time. > There is, check the US and Brazil. There really isn't, we have countries with strong lockdowns doing poorly and countries with weak lockdowns doing relatively well, and everything in between. Lockdown measures are also difficult to compare, as are populations, as is testing and reporting. For example, Brazil with minimal lockdowns is doing just as poorly as Peru, with heavy lockdowns. Florida is doing better than many other US states with heavier restrictions. Japan is supposedly doing well with few restrictions, but also performs little testing. There are lots of variables and unknowns here and one can always cherrypick data to argue for or against lockdowns in various forms.
- sofixa 6y ago
  That was during the first lockdown. More recently, they're closer to capacity: https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-digest-germany-icu-capacity-at-critical-level/a-55912261 https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-digest-germany-icu-capacit... > How do you know that it didn't help? We know from epidemiological studies that superspreader events were responsible for causing a surge of cases in a short amount of time. It didn't help in the sense that hospitals are overcapacity and new cases, hospitalisation and death rates were still exploding until the recent pseudo-lockdown.
  - incrudible 6y ago
    "An intensive care doctor has warned that only five to 10% of intensive care beds are still available in parts of Germany." In most countries, running at 90% ICU capacity is the normal state of affairs, Germany being an exception. Of course you can always warn that the health care system is just about to collapse. In 2015: https://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/sep/19/nhs-collapse-former-health-minister-norman-lamb https://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/sep/19/nhs-collapse... In 2016: https://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/sep/10/hospitals-on-brink-of-collapse-say-health-chiefs https://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/sep/10/hospitals-on... In 2017: https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/feb/20/nhs-at-breaking-point-according-to-british-medical-association https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/feb/20/nhs-at-break... In 2018: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/apr/06/nhs-failure-health-service https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/apr/06/nhs-fa... In 2019: https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/dec/02/nhs-winter-crisis-extra-beds-created-by-52-per-cent-of-uk-hospitals https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/dec/02/nhs-winter-c... In 2020: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/21/doctors-warn-coronavirus-could-overwhelm-nhs-intensive-care https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/21/doctors-warn-c... In 2021: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/09/nhs-counts-the-cost-of-christmas-in-lives-and-warns-worst-is-yet-to-come https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/09/nhs-counts-the... Spoiler: The NHS did not collapse. Working right at the brink of collapse is normal. > It didn't help in the sense that hospitals are overcapacity and new cases, hospitalisation and death rates were still exploding until the recent pseudo-lockdown. According to your own source, hospitals are not over capacity. If you had a few super spreader events, that could obviously change rather quickly. Whether a "pseudo-lockdown" meaningfully slows spread is not so obvious.