4 ms·

Seems rather short sighted in my opinion given that the current scientific consensus is that Covid will become a seasonal thing as it mutates which means that b

by Pick-A-Hill2019 6y ago

Seems rather short sighted in my opinion given that the current scientific consensus is that Covid will become a seasonal thing as it mutates which means that booster shots will probably be needed. Given that amount of R&D funds that the two companies have put in I would imagine they would be reluctant to join in efforts to produce a vaccination for future variations.

lampe3 6y ago
short sighted is the mantra in a lot of EU Politics... In Germany politicians don't think longer then the next TV/Internet shit storm cycle...
- ChuckNorris89 6y ago
  It's not reserved to German politicians but the EU democracy apparatus as a whole is broken to the core without any better alternative. Politicians aren't incentivized to optimize for doing what's right for their constituencies or the greater good but instead they say whatever gets them (re)elected then do whatever their lobby friends who contribute to the party's fund tell them to do, while putting a positive spin on this for the great unwashed. We have no system in place that holds politicians accountable for the damage they do throughout their careers. Even when they are forced to resign due to various scandals, they often end up as "consultants" at the businesses they helped get rich with tax-payer money.
  - Daho0n 6y ago
    It's like this everywhere except in those countries without democratic elections. It's a big part of democracy. Edit: Changed 'with' to 'without'. Woops.
  - andrepd 6y ago
    I don't disagree but how is that a feature of EU democracy and not democracy in general?
  - moystard 6y ago
    That statement can be applied to a lot of countries outside of the EU, it is not an EU specific problem. It represents a challenge for western democracies that appeared with the recent waves of populist movements (Trump, Brexit, 5 Stars, etc.)
- IAmEveryone 6y ago
  Uninformed cynicism, however, is the exclusive mantra of online commentating. The EU is disputing the report in question. And even if it were true, they'd probably have some reason than what you're coming up with in the absence of all information, which is basically "let's kill some people".
- polack 6y ago
  The point of this decision is that they think mRNA technology is the future, so they're investing in that. While I don't dispute that lots of EU politics is short sighted, this seems to be the direct opposite.
tertius 6y ago
Ending a contract would encourage them to do more R&D for more future contracts. Don't subsidize drugs/vaccines that don't work. There are 100+ vaccines being worked on. We're fine.
- elliekelly 6y ago
  > Don't subsidize drugs/vaccines that don't work. Why not? Funding vaccine research seems a worthy endeavor even if some of the research doesn’t pan out. The end result doesn’t need to be an immediately usable vaccine in order for the time & money spent to be worthwhile. Even a completely failed vaccine project could yield a piece of information that helps ensure the next project doesn’t fail.
  - Daho0n 6y ago
    Yes but funding the research and buying vaccines that doesn't work or won't be used for whatever reason is not the same thing though. You can help fund research without buying the vaccine. It would be quite the waste to buy stuff just to throw it out.
  - bluGill 6y ago
    There are different levels of research. Right not Adrenovirus vaccines need to go back to the lab and figure out this clotting issue. Maybe they can, maybe they can't, either way this is a basic research question that needs only a tiny amount of research money. More importantly, that money needs to be spread over a few years. Most of the vast amounts of research funding given isn't really research, it is scaling up production - a much harder problem that needs much more money. Since we now know of some issues (that would be very hard to find before a large scale roll out - lets not put undeserved fault on anyone here) the labs can focus on them.
  - tertius 6y ago
    > Why not? Because money is finite? Not every research grant gets funded. So let's start with the most promising ones? Funding vaccines that are not meeting standards should be dropped so that standards can be met. These companies don't need money for R&D, they have enough and can recoup it if they create a product that the market wants.
arrrg 6y ago
Long-term availability of mRNA vaccines is looking great (short-term is bad to middling but delivery promises were kept and even over-fulfilled and there were no relevant hiccups – everything is scaling up as quickly or more quickly than promised) and they seem to be the gold standard. Plus, as a bonus, maybe they are easier to modify. Price and logistics aren’t really a concern that’s relevant for the EU and mRNA vaccines. It’s cheap enough and easy enough to handle.
skrause 6y ago
The EU Commission has just started negotiations with BioNTech-Pfizer for 1.8 billion additional vaccine doses in 2021-2023: https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1382306561008230400 https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1382306561008230400 They're simply betting on mRNA only, so AstraZeneca and J&J won't be needed anymore.
- rasz 6y ago
  Announcing to the world you really want this particular product and you just cancelled all competing contracts is the best negotiation tactic ever!!1
inglor_cz 6y ago
If Covid becomes a seasonal thing (very possible), we will need more efficient treatments, too. For everyone who cannot either get the vaccine at all or didn't manage to get the booster shot on time. Fortunately it seems lately that some treatments do provide relief to people who are already sick: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00650-7 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00650-7 https://www.dw.com/en/asthma-drug-brings-hope-for-covid-19-treatment/a-57174301 https://www.dw.com/en/asthma-drug-brings-hope-for-covid-19-t...
maxerickson 6y ago
We don't yet have a clear picture of how necessary booster shots will be. Each mutation that impacts antibody reactivity also has a chance to impact infectiousness, and the proteins targeted by the vaccines are large enough that it isn't trivial to predict the outcome. So we might need to do boosters, or we might be fine with the vaccines we have now.
rsynnott 6y ago
Presumably the mRNA makers will have ramped production enough that it won't matter by the time anyone needs a booster.
- maxerickson 6y ago
  That doesn't appear to be the case, even if you limit it to "enough for rich countries". Pfizer is predicting that they will be able to produce 250 million doses month by the end of the year, so I guess they are getting there (depending on how long a period is acceptable).
  - double-a 6y ago
    Source? Moderna (another mRNA vaccine) alone is estimating it will produce between 600M and 1B vaccines in 2021 already: https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKBN2991KH https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/... Curevac is on track to apply for authorization for another mRNA vaccine in Q2: https://www.biopharma-reporter.com/Article/2021/03/22/CureVac-on-track-to-apply-for-COVID-19-vaccine-market-authorization-in-Q2-2021 https://www.biopharma-reporter.com/Article/2021/03/22/CureVa... It's not out of the question that the EU will be able to supply itself entirely with mRNA (or inactivated virus) past 2021.
    - maxerickson 6y ago
      Just search for Pfizer 3 billion (that's the annual rate they expect to be at by the end of the year). The population you want to cover and how long it is allowed to take are both factors in whether production is a limit, so there isn't really one answer as to whether production rate is a factor.
estaseuropano 6y ago
Its a false report, so no worries (see other comment thread)

lampe3 6y ago

short sighted is the mantra in a lot of EU Politics... In Germany politicians don't think longer then the next TV/Internet shit storm cycle...

ChuckNorris89 6y ago
It's not reserved to German politicians but the EU democracy apparatus as a whole is broken to the core without any better alternative. Politicians aren't incentivized to optimize for doing what's right for their constituencies or the greater good but instead they say whatever gets them (re)elected then do whatever their lobby friends who contribute to the party's fund tell them to do, while putting a positive spin on this for the great unwashed. We have no system in place that holds politicians accountable for the damage they do throughout their careers. Even when they are forced to resign due to various scandals, they often end up as "consultants" at the businesses they helped get rich with tax-payer money.
- Daho0n 6y ago
  It's like this everywhere except in those countries without democratic elections. It's a big part of democracy. Edit: Changed 'with' to 'without'. Woops.
- andrepd 6y ago
  I don't disagree but how is that a feature of EU democracy and not democracy in general?
- moystard 6y ago
  That statement can be applied to a lot of countries outside of the EU, it is not an EU specific problem. It represents a challenge for western democracies that appeared with the recent waves of populist movements (Trump, Brexit, 5 Stars, etc.)
IAmEveryone 6y ago
Uninformed cynicism, however, is the exclusive mantra of online commentating. The EU is disputing the report in question. And even if it were true, they'd probably have some reason than what you're coming up with in the absence of all information, which is basically "let's kill some people".
polack 6y ago
The point of this decision is that they think mRNA technology is the future, so they're investing in that. While I don't dispute that lots of EU politics is short sighted, this seems to be the direct opposite.

tertius 6y ago

Ending a contract would encourage them to do more R&D for more future contracts. Don't subsidize drugs/vaccines that don't work. There are 100+ vaccines being worked on. We're fine.

elliekelly 6y ago
> Don't subsidize drugs/vaccines that don't work. Why not? Funding vaccine research seems a worthy endeavor even if some of the research doesn’t pan out. The end result doesn’t need to be an immediately usable vaccine in order for the time & money spent to be worthwhile. Even a completely failed vaccine project could yield a piece of information that helps ensure the next project doesn’t fail.
- Daho0n 6y ago
  Yes but funding the research and buying vaccines that doesn't work or won't be used for whatever reason is not the same thing though. You can help fund research without buying the vaccine. It would be quite the waste to buy stuff just to throw it out.
- bluGill 6y ago
  There are different levels of research. Right not Adrenovirus vaccines need to go back to the lab and figure out this clotting issue. Maybe they can, maybe they can't, either way this is a basic research question that needs only a tiny amount of research money. More importantly, that money needs to be spread over a few years. Most of the vast amounts of research funding given isn't really research, it is scaling up production - a much harder problem that needs much more money. Since we now know of some issues (that would be very hard to find before a large scale roll out - lets not put undeserved fault on anyone here) the labs can focus on them.
- tertius 6y ago
  > Why not? Because money is finite? Not every research grant gets funded. So let's start with the most promising ones? Funding vaccines that are not meeting standards should be dropped so that standards can be met. These companies don't need money for R&D, they have enough and can recoup it if they create a product that the market wants.

arrrg 6y ago

Long-term availability of mRNA vaccines is looking great (short-term is bad to middling but delivery promises were kept and even over-fulfilled and there were no relevant hiccups – everything is scaling up as quickly or more quickly than promised) and they seem to be the gold standard. Plus, as a bonus, maybe they are easier to modify. Price and logistics aren’t really a concern that’s relevant for the EU and mRNA vaccines. It’s cheap enough and easy enough to handle.

skrause 6y ago

The EU Commission has just started negotiations with BioNTech-Pfizer for 1.8 billion additional vaccine doses in 2021-2023: https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1382306561008230400 https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1382306561008230400 They're simply betting on mRNA only, so AstraZeneca and J&J won't be needed anymore.

rasz 6y ago
Announcing to the world you really want this particular product and you just cancelled all competing contracts is the best negotiation tactic ever!!1

inglor_cz 6y ago

If Covid becomes a seasonal thing (very possible), we will need more efficient treatments, too. For everyone who cannot either get the vaccine at all or didn't manage to get the booster shot on time. Fortunately it seems lately that some treatments do provide relief to people who are already sick: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00650-7 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00650-7 https://www.dw.com/en/asthma-drug-brings-hope-for-covid-19-treatment/a-57174301 https://www.dw.com/en/asthma-drug-brings-hope-for-covid-19-t...

maxerickson 6y ago

We don't yet have a clear picture of how necessary booster shots will be. Each mutation that impacts antibody reactivity also has a chance to impact infectiousness, and the proteins targeted by the vaccines are large enough that it isn't trivial to predict the outcome. So we might need to do boosters, or we might be fine with the vaccines we have now.

rsynnott 6y ago

Presumably the mRNA makers will have ramped production enough that it won't matter by the time anyone needs a booster.

maxerickson 6y ago
That doesn't appear to be the case, even if you limit it to "enough for rich countries". Pfizer is predicting that they will be able to produce 250 million doses month by the end of the year, so I guess they are getting there (depending on how long a period is acceptable).
- double-a 6y ago
  Source? Moderna (another mRNA vaccine) alone is estimating it will produce between 600M and 1B vaccines in 2021 already: https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKBN2991KH https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/... Curevac is on track to apply for authorization for another mRNA vaccine in Q2: https://www.biopharma-reporter.com/Article/2021/03/22/CureVac-on-track-to-apply-for-COVID-19-vaccine-market-authorization-in-Q2-2021 https://www.biopharma-reporter.com/Article/2021/03/22/CureVa... It's not out of the question that the EU will be able to supply itself entirely with mRNA (or inactivated virus) past 2021.
  - maxerickson 6y ago
    Just search for Pfizer 3 billion (that's the annual rate they expect to be at by the end of the year). The population you want to cover and how long it is allowed to take are both factors in whether production is a limit, so there isn't really one answer as to whether production rate is a factor.

estaseuropano 6y ago

Its a false report, so no worries (see other comment thread)