6 ms·

This pandemic is basically this entire story. COVID deaths are much more visible than the missed cancers, the depression and drug abuse caused by lockdowns, so

by zpeti 6y ago

This pandemic is basically this entire story. COVID deaths are much more visible than the missed cancers, the depression and drug abuse caused by lockdowns, so basically it’s an easy choice for governments, lockdowns are better politically.

RobertoG 6y ago
That argument doesn't make a lot of sense to me. It assumes that the numbers caused by the lock-downs are bigger than the numbers caused by Covid. It assumes that there is not positives to the lock-downs (maybe some people is less depressed at home than at their work, not deaths by flu, etc..) and, most important, it assumes that not lock-downs would not increase deaths by other causes (intensive care overworked).
- kspacewalk2 6y ago
  The number of deaths due to missed TB vaccinations alone will be a very substantial percentage of number of COVID deaths.
  - ceejayoz 6y ago
    Maybe, maybe not. TB should be readily stopped by masking and distancing measures; we might get something of a respite from it. I'm not aware of any numbers in either direction yet.
ceejayoz 6y ago
Confidently stated, but the impact of lockdowns is likely more complex in reality. It may require years of research to tease out all the components; lockdown vs general pandemic stress, differences in implementation, etc. For example: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpsy/article/PIIS2215-0366(21)00091-2/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpsy/article/PIIS2215-0... > Rate ratios (RRs) and 95% CIs based on the observed versus expected numbers of suicides showed no evidence of a significant increase in risk of suicide since the pandemic began in any country or area. There was statistical evidence of a decrease in suicide compared with the expected number in 12 countries or areas.
- GoblinSlayer 6y ago
  Less human contact, less stress, less suicide.
  - imwillofficial 6y ago
    You are literally 100% wrong. Less human contact, more stress, more suicide. We are social creatures and crave human contact. (Generally of course.)
    - ceejayoz 6y ago
      > more suicide Except the actual statistics linked upthread say otherwise thus far.
      - YinglingLight 6y ago
        HN'ers follow experts like the religious follow prophets. HN'ers hold statistics to be incorruptible, as Christians do the Bible. Deluding yourself in thinking that the lockdowns haven't caused a rise in mental illnesses and suicides, deluding yourself into believing human physical contact has no importance. What won't you believe, if provided statistics from a 3-letter global organization?
      - imwillofficial 6y ago
        https://www.npr.org/2020/09/10/911117577/the-pandemic-has-researchers-worried-about-teen-suicide https://www.npr.org/2020/09/10/911117577/the-pandemic-has-re...
        ceejayoz 6y ago
        "And experts worry those studies will show a spike in suicide..." The results weren't in, yet, when that article was written. The Lancet article is from April 2021; yours is from September 2020. Experts are sometimes surprised by results; it's also possible the whole-population numbers have some subsets that go up and other subsets that go down.
lukasLansky 6y ago
That is a narrative that misses the point of the thread and is generally not compatible with hard data. For example, the amount of suicides in US during 2020 went down.
- peytn 6y ago
  Parent was talking about missed cancers and drug abuse, not suicides. Alcohol sales were up ~20% [1]—that too is hard data. [1]: https://wineindustryadvisor.com/2020/11/16/nielsen-covid-beverage-alcohol-insights https://wineindustryadvisor.com/2020/11/16/nielsen-covid-bev...
  - ceejayoz 6y ago
    Off-premises alcohol sales were up; the article indicates it's a shift from on-premises to off-premises, which... shouldn't be surprising, given a lot of those premises are shut.
- AzzieElbab 6y ago
  And the number of deaths due to seasonal flues is practically 0. I actually do not think any of these statistics matter, because data driven decisions are not timely by definition. What mattered is that the entire western world failed to react in time.
- Izkata 6y ago
  CDC only tracks actual suicides, not attempts. Attempts and suicidal thoughts are up: https://www.aappublications.org/news/2020/12/16/pediatricssuicidestudy121620 https://www.aappublications.org/news/2020/12/16/pediatricssu... Also, on the CDC stats, deaths by "unintentional injuries" is up by way more than suicides are down.
  - scarby2 6y ago
    Has anyone not had suicidal thoughts since the lockdown?
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
usrusr 6y ago
But people will also miss cancer screenings, get depressed and so on when they stay at home because of an unmitigated pandemic running wild. It wouldn't be 2019 again without government intervention. (PS: also, why would they miss a cancer screening when it's literally the only pastime that isn't shut down?)
- inglor_cz 6y ago
  > (PS: also, why would they miss a cancer screening when it's literally the only pastime that isn't shut down?) I was literally looking forward to an expensive and unpleasant dentist appointment (dental implant). At least, some change in the routine.
- eloff 6y ago
  > PS: also, why would they miss a cancer screening when it's literally the only pastime that isn't shut down. Fear to go anywhere near a medical environment. Long delays and cancelled procedures and appointments because medical professionals had other priorities.
  - tshaddox 6y ago
    Wouldn’t both of those situations be vastly worse if there were fewer or less strict lockdowns?
    - eloff 6y ago
      Sorry I missed the context for your PS. Yes they'd be worse without lockdowns. OP's argument is actually an argument for the side.
eloff 6y ago
The story with lockdown is a lot muddier. There's a good argument to be made on both sides, and weighing which decision is best with partial data is difficult. I completely understand the initial lockdowns when we had no data. I would have done that too, although I would have acted sooner because I saw this threat clearly in January - why our governments were less competent across the board than some rando programmer is something I haven't forgiven. What I don't understand is now that we have data, we're still doing lockdowns with no attempt to publicly weigh the pluses and minuses and justify three decision logically. I mean maybe it's the right thing to do, but I want to see them put some real thought into the decision, and not do it because it's what they're before, or what's politically viable. There should be a clear logical argument being made, weighing the harms on both sides and choosing the lesser evil.

by zpeti 6y ago

RobertoG 6y ago

That argument doesn't make a lot of sense to me. It assumes that the numbers caused by the lock-downs are bigger than the numbers caused by Covid. It assumes that there is not positives to the lock-downs (maybe some people is less depressed at home than at their work, not deaths by flu, etc..) and, most important, it assumes that not lock-downs would not increase deaths by other causes (intensive care overworked).

kspacewalk2 6y ago
The number of deaths due to missed TB vaccinations alone will be a very substantial percentage of number of COVID deaths.
- ceejayoz 6y ago
  Maybe, maybe not. TB should be readily stopped by masking and distancing measures; we might get something of a respite from it. I'm not aware of any numbers in either direction yet.

ceejayoz 6y ago

Confidently stated, but the impact of lockdowns is likely more complex in reality. It may require years of research to tease out all the components; lockdown vs general pandemic stress, differences in implementation, etc. For example: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpsy/article/PIIS2215-0366(21)00091-2/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpsy/article/PIIS2215-0... > Rate ratios (RRs) and 95% CIs based on the observed versus expected numbers of suicides showed no evidence of a significant increase in risk of suicide since the pandemic began in any country or area. There was statistical evidence of a decrease in suicide compared with the expected number in 12 countries or areas.

GoblinSlayer 6y ago
Less human contact, less stress, less suicide.
- imwillofficial 6y ago
  You are literally 100% wrong. Less human contact, more stress, more suicide. We are social creatures and crave human contact. (Generally of course.)
  - ceejayoz 6y ago
    > more suicide Except the actual statistics linked upthread say otherwise thus far.
    - YinglingLight 6y ago
      HN'ers follow experts like the religious follow prophets. HN'ers hold statistics to be incorruptible, as Christians do the Bible. Deluding yourself in thinking that the lockdowns haven't caused a rise in mental illnesses and suicides, deluding yourself into believing human physical contact has no importance. What won't you believe, if provided statistics from a 3-letter global organization?
    - imwillofficial 6y ago
      https://www.npr.org/2020/09/10/911117577/the-pandemic-has-researchers-worried-about-teen-suicide https://www.npr.org/2020/09/10/911117577/the-pandemic-has-re...
      - ceejayoz 6y ago
        "And experts worry those studies will show a spike in suicide..." The results weren't in, yet, when that article was written. The Lancet article is from April 2021; yours is from September 2020. Experts are sometimes surprised by results; it's also possible the whole-population numbers have some subsets that go up and other subsets that go down.

lukasLansky 6y ago

That is a narrative that misses the point of the thread and is generally not compatible with hard data. For example, the amount of suicides in US during 2020 went down.

peytn 6y ago
Parent was talking about missed cancers and drug abuse, not suicides. Alcohol sales were up ~20% [1]—that too is hard data. [1]: https://wineindustryadvisor.com/2020/11/16/nielsen-covid-beverage-alcohol-insights https://wineindustryadvisor.com/2020/11/16/nielsen-covid-bev...
- ceejayoz 6y ago
  Off-premises alcohol sales were up; the article indicates it's a shift from on-premises to off-premises, which... shouldn't be surprising, given a lot of those premises are shut.
AzzieElbab 6y ago
And the number of deaths due to seasonal flues is practically 0. I actually do not think any of these statistics matter, because data driven decisions are not timely by definition. What mattered is that the entire western world failed to react in time.
Izkata 6y ago
CDC only tracks actual suicides, not attempts. Attempts and suicidal thoughts are up: https://www.aappublications.org/news/2020/12/16/pediatricssuicidestudy121620 https://www.aappublications.org/news/2020/12/16/pediatricssu... Also, on the CDC stats, deaths by "unintentional injuries" is up by way more than suicides are down.
- scarby2 6y ago
  Has anyone not had suicidal thoughts since the lockdown?

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

usrusr 6y ago

But people will also miss cancer screenings, get depressed and so on when they stay at home because of an unmitigated pandemic running wild. It wouldn't be 2019 again without government intervention. (PS: also, why would they miss a cancer screening when it's literally the only pastime that isn't shut down?)

inglor_cz 6y ago
> (PS: also, why would they miss a cancer screening when it's literally the only pastime that isn't shut down?) I was literally looking forward to an expensive and unpleasant dentist appointment (dental implant). At least, some change in the routine.
eloff 6y ago
> PS: also, why would they miss a cancer screening when it's literally the only pastime that isn't shut down. Fear to go anywhere near a medical environment. Long delays and cancelled procedures and appointments because medical professionals had other priorities.
- tshaddox 6y ago
  Wouldn’t both of those situations be vastly worse if there were fewer or less strict lockdowns?
  - eloff 6y ago
    Sorry I missed the context for your PS. Yes they'd be worse without lockdowns. OP's argument is actually an argument for the side.

eloff 6y ago

The story with lockdown is a lot muddier. There's a good argument to be made on both sides, and weighing which decision is best with partial data is difficult. I completely understand the initial lockdowns when we had no data. I would have done that too, although I would have acted sooner because I saw this threat clearly in January - why our governments were less competent across the board than some rando programmer is something I haven't forgiven. What I don't understand is now that we have data, we're still doing lockdowns with no attempt to publicly weigh the pluses and minuses and justify three decision logically. I mean maybe it's the right thing to do, but I want to see them put some real thought into the decision, and not do it because it's what they're before, or what's politically viable. There should be a clear logical argument being made, weighing the harms on both sides and choosing the lesser evil.