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OK, but why are batteries expensive? 20 years ago rechargeable AA cells were very expensive, now they are cheap, plentiful, and work better than ever. Will el

by Corrado 15y ago

OK, but why are batteries expensive? 20 years ago rechargeable AA cells were very expensive, now they are cheap, plentiful, and work better than ever. Will electric vehicle cells follow the same curve? If not, why not? Is it because they contain precious materials? Lack of economies of scale? ???

btilly 15y ago
The long and short of it is, "Moore's law is ubiquitous." In many very different industries for a long time, once there was an agreed upon and measurable criterion for "better" they delivered exponentially improving performance for periods of decades. What is exceptional about transistors is the rate of doubling, but not the general shape of the curve. (More normal rates of sustained improvement are 5-10%/year.) Lithium-ion batteries have been on a sustained path of improvement since the first commercial ones were released in 1991. If that curve is projected forward to 2020, you hit a price-performance point where electric cars are likely to be competitive. Incidentally if the history of innovation is to be trusted, I would not look for the first successful mainstream electric cars to be from major auto makers or from companies like Tesla. Successful disruptions tend to come up from the bottom of the market. Look at companies like Club Car that sell things like electric golf carts that are already appearing on the road. It is much easier for companies to expand upmarket than it is to strip products down. There is no reason to believe that this has changed.
- wooster 15y ago
  There are examples of markets being disrupted from the top. The iPod is a notable example. It started at a very high price, then dropped into the range where it has become ubiquitous. The trick seems to be that the company who establishes a high-price and high-margin product needs to be willing to cannibalize their own sales with lower priced offerings.

by Corrado 15y ago

btilly 15y ago

The long and short of it is, "Moore's law is ubiquitous." In many very different industries for a long time, once there was an agreed upon and measurable criterion for "better" they delivered exponentially improving performance for periods of decades. What is exceptional about transistors is the rate of doubling, but not the general shape of the curve. (More normal rates of sustained improvement are 5-10%/year.) Lithium-ion batteries have been on a sustained path of improvement since the first commercial ones were released in 1991. If that curve is projected forward to 2020, you hit a price-performance point where electric cars are likely to be competitive. Incidentally if the history of innovation is to be trusted, I would not look for the first successful mainstream electric cars to be from major auto makers or from companies like Tesla. Successful disruptions tend to come up from the bottom of the market. Look at companies like Club Car that sell things like electric golf carts that are already appearing on the road. It is much easier for companies to expand upmarket than it is to strip products down. There is no reason to believe that this has changed.

wooster 15y ago
There are examples of markets being disrupted from the top. The iPod is a notable example. It started at a very high price, then dropped into the range where it has become ubiquitous. The trick seems to be that the company who establishes a high-price and high-margin product needs to be willing to cannibalize their own sales with lower priced offerings.