3 ms·
Some issues with your comment chain: - these are vaccines, they aren’t gene therapy (ie they aren’t changing cellular DNA) - saying a portion of the populatio
by robbiep 6y ago
Some issues with your comment chain:
- these are vaccines, they aren’t gene therapy (ie they aren’t changing cellular DNA)
- saying a portion of the population has herd immunity is non-sensical. Either there’s herd immunity (virus can’t spread bc everyone has antibodies) or there isn’t. It happens at specific thresholds of population exposure/antibody presence that varies based on the R of the virus. It was estimated at ~70% for the ‘original’ virus and with the UK/SA variants now looks to be north of 80%.
- even with exposure, there are case reports of reinfect ion which makes sense in the history of coronaviruses which aren’t considered to provide long term immunity (ie antibody titre falls off and may not provide immunity in some short term horizon, ie 18 months)
- therefore, return to normal relies on elimination of community spread, by herd immunity, which likely will require vaccination; which will hopefully provide longer term immunity than infection with the virus itself (not sure on the evidence on this)
I agree that population that has low statistical risk shouldn’t be pressured into vaccination, and I see the dangers in vaccine passports etc.
To another point you made, regarding long term risks and generally the history of misguided attempts by the medical community to do something that has severe deleterious longer term effects that were unforeseen: I am signicantly less concerned about the risk of ie long term stroke risk being raised in this population, because the emerging evidence points to a HITTs-like antibody mediated condition.
In Heparin induced thrombocytopaenia and thrombosis, removal of trigger removes long term risk and I would think that no further antibody triggering thrombosis should be produced after the acute period in those affected (and indeed in that very large fragment of the population who don’t develop CVTS or vaccine mediated thrombosis, which does seem confined to those who had vaccine via adenovirus vectors), then it should be a non-issue because the autoantibody was never produced in the first place and there are no memory cells there ready to pump it out again at antigen presentation.
Of course, I qualify this with its possible, and you’re free to dismiss my confidence, but we have a plausible mechanism that is relatively well understood so I think the risk of there being long term risks is very low