That's not quite true, the article's section on regression to the mean[1] largely covers the same territory as Nuhfer's article (although Nuhfer never uses that

That's not quite true, the article's section on regression to the mean[1] largely covers the same territory as Nuhfer's article (although Nuhfer never uses that precise phrase). Random noise is a primary reason that we see regression to the mean in most contexts (the exception being actual deterministic factors, such as seasonality, the restoring force of a spring, etc.) The chain of reasoning goes like: Random noise (Nuhfer) -> can cause regression to mean (covered in the article) -> calls into question the Dunning-Kruger effect [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean#Conceptual_background https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean#Con...