3 ms·

Yeah, I don't know how many times on HN I've seen comments like "we need to open things up because suicides are up due to shutdowns!" without any supporting dat

Yeah, I don't know how many times on HN I've seen comments like "we need to open things up because suicides are up due to shutdowns!" without any supporting data. And now we see suicides were actually down in some places and mostly unchanged everywhere else.

chrisco255 6y ago
The data doesn't show that lockdowns didn't cause suicide, either though. For example, Norway is in the dataset, and Norway didn't lock down, or only locked down for a couple weeks. It might also be interesting to see what the results were in urban areas with tight restrictions, maybe even in countries with already high suicide rates, like South Korea and Japan, to see the results. But either way, you cannot isolate the "lockdown" variable because there was a full spectrum of policy responses from different countries, cities, and subregions. So, let's just say the jury is still out. We know that social isolation causes depression. We know that economic hardship causes depression. When people argue against lockdowns, this is why.
- hobs 6y ago
  We had more lockdowns, we didnt have more suicides, how is that not showing the claim doesnt hold?
WillPostForFood 6y ago
There are hundreds of stories like this one by NPR, which not an expected source for anti-lockdown fake news: https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/02/02/962060105/child-psychiatrists-warn-that-the-pandemic-may-be-driving-up-kids-suicide-risk https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/02/02/9620601... So people read it and think the suicide rate is going up. It may actually be going up for some groups in some places, but the bigger message here is that the media loves a good horror story, and is willing to report anything based on anecdotes.
- zthrowaway 6y ago
  But deaths of despair are on the rise. Perhaps pro-lockdown and anti-lockdown people focus on the wrong data points. https://www.sciencenews.org/article/deaths-of-despair-depression-mental-health-covid-19-pandemic/amp https://www.sciencenews.org/article/deaths-of-despair-depres...
- packetlost 6y ago
  I wouldn't really expect suicides to rise much within the first few months, if at all. It's 3+ months an onward that I would expect to start seeing increases due to prolonged isolation.
bellyfullofbac 6y ago
But this was just for the first three months, and for those regions... I'm not for hasty reopenings, rather for more money for mental health, and intuition says the loss of jobs and financial security must have an effect on mental health, and unfortunately along with that, suicides. E.g. in India: https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-10-06/suicides-rise-coronavirus-squeezes-india-middle-class https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-10-06/suicid...

chrisco255 6y ago

The data doesn't show that lockdowns didn't cause suicide, either though. For example, Norway is in the dataset, and Norway didn't lock down, or only locked down for a couple weeks. It might also be interesting to see what the results were in urban areas with tight restrictions, maybe even in countries with already high suicide rates, like South Korea and Japan, to see the results. But either way, you cannot isolate the "lockdown" variable because there was a full spectrum of policy responses from different countries, cities, and subregions. So, let's just say the jury is still out. We know that social isolation causes depression. We know that economic hardship causes depression. When people argue against lockdowns, this is why.

hobs 6y ago
We had more lockdowns, we didnt have more suicides, how is that not showing the claim doesnt hold?

WillPostForFood 6y ago

There are hundreds of stories like this one by NPR, which not an expected source for anti-lockdown fake news: https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/02/02/962060105/child-psychiatrists-warn-that-the-pandemic-may-be-driving-up-kids-suicide-risk https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/02/02/9620601... So people read it and think the suicide rate is going up. It may actually be going up for some groups in some places, but the bigger message here is that the media loves a good horror story, and is willing to report anything based on anecdotes.

zthrowaway 6y ago
But deaths of despair are on the rise. Perhaps pro-lockdown and anti-lockdown people focus on the wrong data points. https://www.sciencenews.org/article/deaths-of-despair-depression-mental-health-covid-19-pandemic/amp https://www.sciencenews.org/article/deaths-of-despair-depres...
packetlost 6y ago
I wouldn't really expect suicides to rise much within the first few months, if at all. It's 3+ months an onward that I would expect to start seeing increases due to prolonged isolation.

bellyfullofbac 6y ago

But this was just for the first three months, and for those regions... I'm not for hasty reopenings, rather for more money for mental health, and intuition says the loss of jobs and financial security must have an effect on mental health, and unfortunately along with that, suicides. E.g. in India: https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-10-06/suicides-rise-coronavirus-squeezes-india-middle-class https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-10-06/suicid...