2-5 per m per y is an incidence over the entire year. Assuming a uniform distribution over the 365 days, then the probability of getting it "on that day" become

2-5 per m per y is an incidence over the entire year. Assuming a uniform distribution over the 365 days, then the probability of getting it "on that day" becomes a probability of 1-2 per billion. So the reported cases of are not comparable. They are really, really high. And while I agree about the relative risk vs covid, again this is not a fair comparison. For many people who are isolating, then a person never leaving the house has a very low risk from covid, both personally and transmitting it. You are not asking people to exchange a very small risk from the vaccine vs a very high risk from covid. You are asking them to exchange a very small but roulette-like risk from the vaccine, versus a presumably equally small if not smaller risk from covid due to their circumstances. Note, what I am "not" saying is that peoples shouldn't be vaccinated. I'm just saying artificially trivialising the risk further using bad math isn't doing anyone any favours.