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I mean the US is going to shit, but it's important to ask: "Compared to what?" Our demographical outlook is actually much better than any other developed nation
by bruiseralmighty 6y ago
I mean the US is going to shit, but it's important to ask: "Compared to what?" Our demographical outlook is actually much better than any other developed nation.
China's economy is based on the export of manufacturing goods. We are their main customer. More importantly, we are set up to be their only main customer for the next generation at least due to birth rates.
Every other developed nation has had a declining birth-rate while ours grew and then remained stable after the end of WWII. That means that Europe, Russia, and China are all set to become Japan as their populations age out of the workforce. This is the true cost of the 1-child policy and it will reverse their entire economy.
China will have to begin importing masses of foreign labor to make up for the shortfall. But the people buying all those goods will either be Americans or their allies in India. Keep in mind that Americans are split 50/50 on whether mass immigration is a good idea or not. China is unified against the idea. They also have far more unmarried young men due to that same policy. If you think we have a racial-supremacist problem in America I invite you to be patient.
There is simply no other country rich and populated enough to fund the Chinese manufacturing economy other than the American consumer economy.
I agree with the general sentiment that America is in decline, but every other developed nation is set to decline faster than we are. This gives us a relative advantage even if in absolute terms the world is going to shit.
China may still come out on top. Their leadership has vision and the political ability to plan more than 2 years in advance (really nice to have in a government), but it will be at least another 20 before they achieve undisputed supremacy.
- rnd0 6y agoWhen you say "Our demographical outlook" what do you mean, and how is it better than other nations?
- bruiseralmighty 6y agoApologies I was referring to the birth-rates I referenced below that sentence. Basically our population pyramid compared to other countries.