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I think there's an argument to be made that we can make the cost benefit analysis with or without assuming the vaccine is a silver-bullet. The CDC is choosing t

I think there's an argument to be made that we can make the cost benefit analysis with or without assuming the vaccine is a silver-bullet. The CDC is choosing to not make that assumption and make the analysis that way. I don't think it's fair to put that methodology in the same bucket as anti-vax logic.

bradleyjg 5y ago
Assuming the vaccine is or isn’t perfectly effective aren’t the only two options. They can use a probability distribution. Surely at least one statistician works at the CDC.
- xahrepap 5y ago
  Fair point. I guess I'm just not approaching it from the same angle as you. I am just assuming they're doing that kind of work, but are not publicly giving advice until they feel confident in that advice. Maybe I'm wrong in giving them the benefit of the doubt here.
ryandrake 5y ago
OK, so do a cost benefit. What is the cost of a mask? Next to nothing--a buck at most, and even the disposable ones can be reused a few times. The cost is vanishingly small. Wearing masks and maintaining social distancing is a tiny, minuscule price to pay, even if the benefit is still questionable for people around vaccinated people. It costs almost nothing and is almost zero effort, so why wouldn't you? I just don't get this thing against masks, for the life of me I don't understand the mentality. In the past people have gone off to war and died for their country, and yet today we have people ready to riot about putting a little piece of cloth on their faces. I can't figure it out.
- bradleyjg 5y ago
  Do you also claim that medium and large gatherings have zero value? > In the past people have gone off to war and died for their country, There’s no evidence that a fully vaccinated person wearing a mask is doing anything positive for anyone, much less their country.
  - ryandrake 5y ago
    It does not cost anything to avoid gatherings.
    - ghaff 5y ago
      Clearly we are going to have gatherings again at some point. The only real question is the timing.

bradleyjg 5y ago

Assuming the vaccine is or isn’t perfectly effective aren’t the only two options. They can use a probability distribution. Surely at least one statistician works at the CDC.

xahrepap 5y ago
Fair point. I guess I'm just not approaching it from the same angle as you. I am just assuming they're doing that kind of work, but are not publicly giving advice until they feel confident in that advice. Maybe I'm wrong in giving them the benefit of the doubt here.

ryandrake 5y ago

OK, so do a cost benefit. What is the cost of a mask? Next to nothing--a buck at most, and even the disposable ones can be reused a few times. The cost is vanishingly small. Wearing masks and maintaining social distancing is a tiny, minuscule price to pay, even if the benefit is still questionable for people around vaccinated people. It costs almost nothing and is almost zero effort, so why wouldn't you? I just don't get this thing against masks, for the life of me I don't understand the mentality. In the past people have gone off to war and died for their country, and yet today we have people ready to riot about putting a little piece of cloth on their faces. I can't figure it out.

bradleyjg 5y ago
Do you also claim that medium and large gatherings have zero value? > In the past people have gone off to war and died for their country, There’s no evidence that a fully vaccinated person wearing a mask is doing anything positive for anyone, much less their country.
- ryandrake 5y ago
  It does not cost anything to avoid gatherings.
  - ghaff 5y ago
    Clearly we are going to have gatherings again at some point. The only real question is the timing.