Initially the cdc data pointed to about 2/3rds would have died anyway in the same time period in the US, but that was a few months in. Now if you pull total dea

Initially the cdc data pointed to about 2/3rds would have died anyway in the same time period in the US, but that was a few months in. Now if you pull total deaths from the cdc, subtract deaths tagged as covid and fit a sinusoid with a 52 week period and a slope for population growth you get a pretty solid fit with the exception of the 2018 and 2015 flu, and last summer. But last summer the sinusoid is under the total daeths minus covid deaths. Integrating the area between I think we undereported covid deaths by about 50k over the summer. We are back down to predictded deaths now without counting covid deaths. So I think all half million deaths are in excess of expected value, plus another 50k.