5 ms·

I just don't see how the US keeps together. The disconnect between the two sides is, on the one hand, not based on anything concrete. So maybe we can patch it

I just don't see how the US keeps together. The disconnect between the two sides is, on the one hand, not based on anything concrete. So maybe we can patch it up somehow. Like, before the Civil War, slavery is a real thing with real human and economic effects. Today though, conservatives are mad about what exactly?… It seems like they're mad about a generalized disrespect which the mainstream culture has towards them. And fair enough, they aren't imagining that. But they vent this anger into really bizarre things like trying to keep trans people from using the bathroom and imaginary voter fraud prevention laws. And those are the mainstream, non-conspiracy minded Republican issues! On the other hand though, if there can't be any communication between the two sides, if anyone adopting a position that is popular with 40% of the public makes them a pariah to the other 40%, I just don't see how you can run a country like that. I also don't see any causes on the horizon that would cause the current trend to reverse and for things to become less polarized. So my current best guess is that we are in the quiet period now, things will stew along for the next 2 to 4 years, then Trump will run again or some other crazy thing, and then there will be secession crisis. It doesn't have to happen, but preventing it from happening requires the Republicans to denounce Trump and anyone associated with him, and I don't think they're going to do it. That isn't to say that the Republicans will necessarily be the ones to precipitate the crisis. I think it's pretty much equally likely that Trump/a Trumpist wins and then the blue states decide to leave. I think something like that probably would have happened in 2020 if he had squeaked out another narrow electoral college win, so it could happen in 2024 or 2028 instead.

kwere 6y ago
yeah, blue good, red bad
- earthboundkid 6y ago
  I can’t tell whether your comment is agreeing or mocking.
Ancapistani 6y ago
> Today though, conservatives are mad about what exactly?… It seems like they're mad about a generalized disrespect which the mainstream culture has towards them. And fair enough, they aren't imagining that. It's a bit more than that. A growing proportion of conservatives see the world very differently than their left-wing counterparts. This is most easily demonstrated at the moment by the fact that 60% of self-identified Republicans believe the election was stolen via voter fraud[1]. Set aside your own beliefs about the specific issue for a moment, and ask yourself: how would you feel if you honestly, truly believed that Trump legitimately won the election? Would your beliefs be strengthened or weakened when the opposition compared the person you believed won the Presidency to Hitler, and their supporters (you) to Nazis[2]? > But they vent this anger into really bizarre things like trying to keep trans people from using the bathroom and imaginary voter fraud prevention laws. And those are the mainstream, non-conspiracy minded Republican issues! You're right. Those issues are politicians pandering to their bases, and emphatically setting themselves on the "hardliner" side of a party that is in turmoil and at risk of fracture. There are other issues that, if pressed, will absolutely unite the GOP and sweep everything else aside. Foremost among those: gun rights. If the Biden administration is successful in moving against firearms - especially if through legislation - the divisions within the GOP will disappear in a heartbeat. > So my current best guess is that we are in the quiet period now, things will stew along for the next 2 to 4 years, then Trump will run again or some other crazy thing, and then there will be secession crisis. I agree. I don't know if Trump will remain relevant, but I see every sign that red states are beginning to seriously consider secession as a possibility. It's an extremely unlikely one today, yes - but it was extremely unlikely in most of the 1850s as well... until it wasn't. 1: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-politics-disinformation-idUSKBN2BS0RZ https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-politics-disinformati... 2: https://www.salon.com/2021/04/11/trumps-big-lie-and-hitlers-is-this-how-americas-slide-into-totalitarianism-begins/ https://www.salon.com/2021/04/11/trumps-big-lie-and-hitlers-...
- earthboundkid 6y ago
  I’ve heard my right wing family members talk about voter fraud since at least 2000, but it’s basically a symptom of the bigger problem, which is a failure of belief in human nature. Changing the topic briefly, how do I know that 9/11 was not an “inside job”? Do I know anything about whether jet fuel melts steel or surveillance of the Pentagon hit, etc.? No, I do not. How then? Well, I know human nature, and so I know a conspiracy involving thousands of people cannot be hidden successfully for twenty years. Okay, so was there widespread voter fraud in 2020? Prior elections? I’m not an expert in election monitoring, but again, I know about human nature and the mainstream media, so I know that if there were, it would be known. But the Republicans have decided they just don’t believe in Americans anymore, so they don’t trust anything. It makes unity impossible. I think the only cure unless something really changes is divorce.

kwere 6y ago

yeah, blue good, red bad

earthboundkid 6y ago
I can’t tell whether your comment is agreeing or mocking.

Ancapistani 6y ago

> Today though, conservatives are mad about what exactly?… It seems like they're mad about a generalized disrespect which the mainstream culture has towards them. And fair enough, they aren't imagining that. It's a bit more than that. A growing proportion of conservatives see the world very differently than their left-wing counterparts. This is most easily demonstrated at the moment by the fact that 60% of self-identified Republicans believe the election was stolen via voter fraud[1]. Set aside your own beliefs about the specific issue for a moment, and ask yourself: how would you feel if you honestly, truly believed that Trump legitimately won the election? Would your beliefs be strengthened or weakened when the opposition compared the person you believed won the Presidency to Hitler, and their supporters (you) to Nazis[2]? > But they vent this anger into really bizarre things like trying to keep trans people from using the bathroom and imaginary voter fraud prevention laws. And those are the mainstream, non-conspiracy minded Republican issues! You're right. Those issues are politicians pandering to their bases, and emphatically setting themselves on the "hardliner" side of a party that is in turmoil and at risk of fracture. There are other issues that, if pressed, will absolutely unite the GOP and sweep everything else aside. Foremost among those: gun rights. If the Biden administration is successful in moving against firearms - especially if through legislation - the divisions within the GOP will disappear in a heartbeat. > So my current best guess is that we are in the quiet period now, things will stew along for the next 2 to 4 years, then Trump will run again or some other crazy thing, and then there will be secession crisis. I agree. I don't know if Trump will remain relevant, but I see every sign that red states are beginning to seriously consider secession as a possibility. It's an extremely unlikely one today, yes - but it was extremely unlikely in most of the 1850s as well... until it wasn't. 1: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-politics-disinformation-idUSKBN2BS0RZ https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-politics-disinformati... 2: https://www.salon.com/2021/04/11/trumps-big-lie-and-hitlers-is-this-how-americas-slide-into-totalitarianism-begins/ https://www.salon.com/2021/04/11/trumps-big-lie-and-hitlers-...

earthboundkid 6y ago
I’ve heard my right wing family members talk about voter fraud since at least 2000, but it’s basically a symptom of the bigger problem, which is a failure of belief in human nature. Changing the topic briefly, how do I know that 9/11 was not an “inside job”? Do I know anything about whether jet fuel melts steel or surveillance of the Pentagon hit, etc.? No, I do not. How then? Well, I know human nature, and so I know a conspiracy involving thousands of people cannot be hidden successfully for twenty years. Okay, so was there widespread voter fraud in 2020? Prior elections? I’m not an expert in election monitoring, but again, I know about human nature and the mainstream media, so I know that if there were, it would be known. But the Republicans have decided they just don’t believe in Americans anymore, so they don’t trust anything. It makes unity impossible. I think the only cure unless something really changes is divorce.