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Canadian here on the ground in Ukraine, on the Eastern side (Kharkiv). The situation is pretty serious as everyone’s talking about war, and I personally am stoc

Canadian here on the ground in Ukraine, on the Eastern side (Kharkiv). The situation is pretty serious as everyone’s talking about war, and I personally am stocking up on non-perishable food items. The prevailing opinion seems to be that Russia is just flexing muscles, but I personally believe a full scale invasion is in the works. The idea that Putin is trying to extract concessions doesn’t make sense to me, because there aren’t many concessions to extract, especially from that young idealistic Zelensky. But what do I know, read Henry Kissinger: https://www.henryakissinger.com/articles/how-the-ukraine-crisis-ends/ https://www.henryakissinger.com/articles/how-the-ukraine-cri...

josefresco 6y ago
"on the ground" as in military service or are you living/visiting?
- igammarays 6y ago
  Living and working on a tech startup. Fiance is Ukrainian.
wombat-man 6y ago
hmm... can you leave?
- igammarays 6y ago
  Running a bootstrapped tech startup, can’t afford to leave.
  - wombat-man 6y ago
    dang, good luck bud
arithmomachist 6y ago
Haven't the Ukrainians diverted important rivers upstream on Crimea? Undoing that could be the concession Putin is hoping for.
- tguvot 6y ago
  no. they did block water in artificial canal.
arcanon 6y ago
Kharkiv and the T-34 factory that built the tanks which stopped the Nazis from invading Moscow is one of the most remarkable stories in history. The timeliness of Mikhal Koshkin’s armor column can not be understated. This is especially interesting because the T-34 platform was invented by J. Walter Christie, an American! The story has got it all for a major blockbuster. Its worth reading about Christie’s life.
sergeykish 5y ago
Hello from Kharkiv, article is largely outdated. Russia invasion consolidated Ukrainians. Only NATO could bring peace to my country. Crimea with Russia returns to its native state, land without much water. That was a reason Crimea was handled to Ukraine, on its balance, it was not "present". Putin is trying to distract from internal problems — rising prices, peaceful meetings breakdown, his Palace [1], dying in prison opposition leader Navalny. And on top of it Baiden called Putin a killer. He is playing "strong leader" again. Full scale invasion is higly possible, but only because RF government is insane. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ipAnwilMncI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ipAnwilMncI
- ridethebike 5y ago
  Hey, given that you're "on the ground", in your opinion, what is the mood there and what do you think is more likely: - no invasion (flex muscles, drills, go home) - limited invasion - full-scale invasion
  - sergeykish 5y ago
    Lets check, in 2014 there were two cases: * Crimea invasion — unexpected "brother nation" invasion, brainwashing about Ukrainian fascists, largely pro-Russian population. * Donbass — brainwashing, traitors in government and police, RF mercenaries and brainwashed Russians [1]. Since then largely people understood that "Russian peace" is war, poverty and crime. Pro-Russian parties popularity plummeted, last incarnation got 10% [2]. I do not think it is possible to reproduce Donbass scenario. And invasion would not be praised. Last remaining option is forceful occupation. War goal is North Crimean Canal [3] in Kherson Oblast [4]. Overall mood — we have to be ready. No one can predict Russia — it's information autocracy. Putin does anything to improve his rating. Crimea annexation improved his approval rating up to 87%. And it is falling again — poverty, Putins palace, Navalny in jail, COVID deaths, too much to hide without external enemy. I hope it is flexing muscles. Preparation is too obvious, compare with Crimea occupation. Yet we have to be ready for "Russian speaking Ukrainians" from nearby Russian cities. It could happen again. In such case I would be in a city center. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M7NSj8aRWao https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M7NSj8aRWao [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opposition_Platform_%E2%80%94_For_Life https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opposition_Platform_%E2%80%94_... [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Crimean_Canal https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Crimean_Canal [4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kherson_Oblast https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kherson_Oblast
anelson 5y ago
Hey, American here, I live in Kyiv. Things are as tense here as I've ever experienced since I moved here in 2018. Most Ukrainians I know don't think a full-scale invasion is likely, but I think that's just because contemplating the prospect of an escalation of the war with Russia is too unpleasant. I know that the Ukrainian armed forces are taking it seriously, although as far as I know they haven't yet mobilized any reserves. That said, a lot has changed since 2014. Back then, Ukraine's military was hollowed out by years of neglect and corruption. Ukraine's armed forces have undergone a significant transformation since then, and while I don't think they could hold off the combined forces of Russia's armor, air, and naval assets, they don't have to: they just have to make Russia pay dearly enough for every meter they take that it's not worth it. To that end, we (the US but also Canada and Great Britain) have done a lot in terms of training and support, and IIRC there are units of Ukrainian Special Forces which have certified as NATO SOF. If I were a Russian tank commander advancing into Ukrainian territory, I'd be very worried about the Javelin anti-tank missile systems Ukraine bought from the US. Ukraine is also operating a pretty advanced Turkish armed UAV platform which could ruin the day of would-be invaders. I'm not yet at the point where I'm considering leaving Ukraine, but it is a pretty stressful time. However you have to understand that Ukraine has been at war with Russia since 2014; Ukrainian soldiers have continued to fight and die on the contact line in Eastern Ukraine ever since. So to some extent the population here are used to the looming threat of violence from Russia since it never went away. Nonetheless, this feels like an escalation and that worries me.

josefresco 6y ago

"on the ground" as in military service or are you living/visiting?

igammarays 6y ago
Living and working on a tech startup. Fiance is Ukrainian.

wombat-man 6y ago

hmm... can you leave?

igammarays 6y ago
Running a bootstrapped tech startup, can’t afford to leave.
- wombat-man 6y ago
  dang, good luck bud

arithmomachist 6y ago

Haven't the Ukrainians diverted important rivers upstream on Crimea? Undoing that could be the concession Putin is hoping for.

tguvot 6y ago
no. they did block water in artificial canal.

arcanon 6y ago

Kharkiv and the T-34 factory that built the tanks which stopped the Nazis from invading Moscow is one of the most remarkable stories in history. The timeliness of Mikhal Koshkin’s armor column can not be understated. This is especially interesting because the T-34 platform was invented by J. Walter Christie, an American! The story has got it all for a major blockbuster. Its worth reading about Christie’s life.

sergeykish 5y ago

Hello from Kharkiv, article is largely outdated. Russia invasion consolidated Ukrainians. Only NATO could bring peace to my country. Crimea with Russia returns to its native state, land without much water. That was a reason Crimea was handled to Ukraine, on its balance, it was not "present". Putin is trying to distract from internal problems — rising prices, peaceful meetings breakdown, his Palace [1], dying in prison opposition leader Navalny. And on top of it Baiden called Putin a killer. He is playing "strong leader" again. Full scale invasion is higly possible, but only because RF government is insane. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ipAnwilMncI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ipAnwilMncI

ridethebike 5y ago
Hey, given that you're "on the ground", in your opinion, what is the mood there and what do you think is more likely: - no invasion (flex muscles, drills, go home) - limited invasion - full-scale invasion
- sergeykish 5y ago
  Lets check, in 2014 there were two cases: * Crimea invasion — unexpected "brother nation" invasion, brainwashing about Ukrainian fascists, largely pro-Russian population. * Donbass — brainwashing, traitors in government and police, RF mercenaries and brainwashed Russians [1]. Since then largely people understood that "Russian peace" is war, poverty and crime. Pro-Russian parties popularity plummeted, last incarnation got 10% [2]. I do not think it is possible to reproduce Donbass scenario. And invasion would not be praised. Last remaining option is forceful occupation. War goal is North Crimean Canal [3] in Kherson Oblast [4]. Overall mood — we have to be ready. No one can predict Russia — it's information autocracy. Putin does anything to improve his rating. Crimea annexation improved his approval rating up to 87%. And it is falling again — poverty, Putins palace, Navalny in jail, COVID deaths, too much to hide without external enemy. I hope it is flexing muscles. Preparation is too obvious, compare with Crimea occupation. Yet we have to be ready for "Russian speaking Ukrainians" from nearby Russian cities. It could happen again. In such case I would be in a city center. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M7NSj8aRWao https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M7NSj8aRWao [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opposition_Platform_%E2%80%94_For_Life https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opposition_Platform_%E2%80%94_... [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Crimean_Canal https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Crimean_Canal [4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kherson_Oblast https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kherson_Oblast

anelson 5y ago

Hey, American here, I live in Kyiv. Things are as tense here as I've ever experienced since I moved here in 2018. Most Ukrainians I know don't think a full-scale invasion is likely, but I think that's just because contemplating the prospect of an escalation of the war with Russia is too unpleasant. I know that the Ukrainian armed forces are taking it seriously, although as far as I know they haven't yet mobilized any reserves. That said, a lot has changed since 2014. Back then, Ukraine's military was hollowed out by years of neglect and corruption. Ukraine's armed forces have undergone a significant transformation since then, and while I don't think they could hold off the combined forces of Russia's armor, air, and naval assets, they don't have to: they just have to make Russia pay dearly enough for every meter they take that it's not worth it. To that end, we (the US but also Canada and Great Britain) have done a lot in terms of training and support, and IIRC there are units of Ukrainian Special Forces which have certified as NATO SOF. If I were a Russian tank commander advancing into Ukrainian territory, I'd be very worried about the Javelin anti-tank missile systems Ukraine bought from the US. Ukraine is also operating a pretty advanced Turkish armed UAV platform which could ruin the day of would-be invaders. I'm not yet at the point where I'm considering leaving Ukraine, but it is a pretty stressful time. However you have to understand that Ukraine has been at war with Russia since 2014; Ukrainian soldiers have continued to fight and die on the contact line in Eastern Ukraine ever since. So to some extent the population here are used to the looming threat of violence from Russia since it never went away. Nonetheless, this feels like an escalation and that worries me.