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Relevant tweet: https://twitter.com/robertwiblin/status/1381967753234411530 https://twitter.com/robertwiblin/status/1381967753234411530 J&J doses delivered: 7

by yboris 6y ago

Relevant tweet: https://twitter.com/robertwiblin/status/1381967753234411530 https://twitter.com/robertwiblin/status/1381967753234411530 J&J doses delivered: 7 million. Reported blood clotting events: 6. Daily risk of dying of COVID19 in the US: 1 in 330,000. CDC and FDA: Pause the J&J vaccine. Draw your own conclusion on how aligned these folks are with your interests.

nscalf 6y ago
I think this is an illustration of an issue that has been seen throughout the entire pandemic. Medicine != Public Health Policy. In general, I would say medicine is too dogmatic to decide on public policy, and public policy is too loose to operate medicine.
ChrisLomont 6y ago
That tweet ignores that there are alternatives to the J&J vaccine, so implying that there is a binary decision between J&J or 1 in 330k death chance is flawed reasoning.
- mr_cyborg 6y ago
  Also ignores risk by age group, which can be significant and relevant to someone’s risk profile.
UncleOxidant 6y ago
But there are 2 other vaccines that are still available so it's not like they're stopping all vaccinations. Another consideraton: J&J was/is having production problems so deliveries have been cut considerably - as such this probably won't be a very significant change to vaccination rates. I suspect the FDA will allow J&J vaccinations to resume in a couple of weeks. Maybe they'll recommend it not be used in women under 60 as has been done with the AZ vaccine in Europe. Even if they do that there would still be plenty of men eligible to get the J&J.
ceilingcorner 6y ago
This is misleading. If you’re young and healthy, the chances of dying from COVID are basically zero. The chances of dying from a blood clot from a rushed vaccine are not. The people who died from blood clots probably would still be alive had they not taken the vaccine.
- curryst 6y ago
  The risk is low, but I think the last I saw was a 0.01% IFR in the young, which comes out to 1 in 10,000. Still a higher risk than COVID at this point, although it's possible that they'll discover a higher incidence like with AZ.
- javagram 6y ago
  > If you’re young and healthy, the chances of dying from COVID are basically zero. Hundreds of young and healthy people have died from Covid-19. The risk is “basically zero” but so is the current known 1 in 7 million risk of dying from this blood clotting.
  - ceilingcorner 6y ago
    Most of those cases haven't quite been "healthy." Even then, let's assume they were. COVID is largely avoidable, if you don't mind being avoiding others. Directly getting a vaccine is not. It's like saying X% of people riding in cars will be in accidents and die. Yeah, maybe, but that doesn't apply to you if you don't ride in a car in the first place.
    - javagram 6y ago
      > Most of those cases haven't quite been "healthy." 25% of those who died under age 21 had no pre-existing condition, according to the CDC analysis. https://www.upi.com/Health_News/2020/09/15/75-of-youths-who-died-from-COVID-19-had-underlying-health-conditions/1781600190309/ https://www.upi.com/Health_News/2020/09/15/75-of-youths-who-... I believe the data does support my statement that hundreds of young and healthy people have died from covid. The risk is close to zero, yes, but still greater than the reported risk from this vaccine. Close to 3000 people ages 25 to 34 have officially died in the USA from covid-19. If the same 75%/25% division the cdc found for under 21 applies to this group, that’s 750 young and healthy people who died so far just in the age 25-34 age group. > COVID is largely avoidable, if you don't mind being avoiding others Huge assumption. Many workers need to work in person and are going to be exposed. Many others live in a home with someone who is an essential worker, or doesn’t believe in covid being dangerous or taking precautions. It really isn’t fair to blame everyone catching covid today and say they could have simply avoided it. Also, getting a vaccine is absolutely avoidable. No one is being forcibly vaccinated right now.
cbm-vic-20 6y ago
> Draw your own conclusion on how aligned these folks are with your interests. What's this supposed to mean? Is the implication here that the CDC and FDA want to keep people from being vaccinated? WHy?

by yboris 6y ago

nscalf 6y ago

I think this is an illustration of an issue that has been seen throughout the entire pandemic. Medicine != Public Health Policy. In general, I would say medicine is too dogmatic to decide on public policy, and public policy is too loose to operate medicine.

ChrisLomont 6y ago

That tweet ignores that there are alternatives to the J&J vaccine, so implying that there is a binary decision between J&J or 1 in 330k death chance is flawed reasoning.

mr_cyborg 6y ago
Also ignores risk by age group, which can be significant and relevant to someone’s risk profile.

UncleOxidant 6y ago

But there are 2 other vaccines that are still available so it's not like they're stopping all vaccinations. Another consideraton: J&J was/is having production problems so deliveries have been cut considerably - as such this probably won't be a very significant change to vaccination rates. I suspect the FDA will allow J&J vaccinations to resume in a couple of weeks. Maybe they'll recommend it not be used in women under 60 as has been done with the AZ vaccine in Europe. Even if they do that there would still be plenty of men eligible to get the J&J.

ceilingcorner 6y ago

This is misleading. If you’re young and healthy, the chances of dying from COVID are basically zero. The chances of dying from a blood clot from a rushed vaccine are not. The people who died from blood clots probably would still be alive had they not taken the vaccine.

curryst 6y ago
The risk is low, but I think the last I saw was a 0.01% IFR in the young, which comes out to 1 in 10,000. Still a higher risk than COVID at this point, although it's possible that they'll discover a higher incidence like with AZ.
javagram 6y ago
> If you’re young and healthy, the chances of dying from COVID are basically zero. Hundreds of young and healthy people have died from Covid-19. The risk is “basically zero” but so is the current known 1 in 7 million risk of dying from this blood clotting.
- ceilingcorner 6y ago
  Most of those cases haven't quite been "healthy." Even then, let's assume they were. COVID is largely avoidable, if you don't mind being avoiding others. Directly getting a vaccine is not. It's like saying X% of people riding in cars will be in accidents and die. Yeah, maybe, but that doesn't apply to you if you don't ride in a car in the first place.
  - javagram 6y ago
    > Most of those cases haven't quite been "healthy." 25% of those who died under age 21 had no pre-existing condition, according to the CDC analysis. https://www.upi.com/Health_News/2020/09/15/75-of-youths-who-died-from-COVID-19-had-underlying-health-conditions/1781600190309/ https://www.upi.com/Health_News/2020/09/15/75-of-youths-who-... I believe the data does support my statement that hundreds of young and healthy people have died from covid. The risk is close to zero, yes, but still greater than the reported risk from this vaccine. Close to 3000 people ages 25 to 34 have officially died in the USA from covid-19. If the same 75%/25% division the cdc found for under 21 applies to this group, that’s 750 young and healthy people who died so far just in the age 25-34 age group. > COVID is largely avoidable, if you don't mind being avoiding others Huge assumption. Many workers need to work in person and are going to be exposed. Many others live in a home with someone who is an essential worker, or doesn’t believe in covid being dangerous or taking precautions. It really isn’t fair to blame everyone catching covid today and say they could have simply avoided it. Also, getting a vaccine is absolutely avoidable. No one is being forcibly vaccinated right now.

cbm-vic-20 6y ago

> Draw your own conclusion on how aligned these folks are with your interests. What's this supposed to mean? Is the implication here that the CDC and FDA want to keep people from being vaccinated? WHy?