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You can never know anything for sure. This is why science, medicine and drug approvals are all about probabilities and calculated risks. If everyone suddenly dr
by DangerousPie 6y ago
You can never know anything for sure. This is why science, medicine and drug approvals are all about probabilities and calculated risks. If everyone suddenly dropped dead 10 years after taking a drug that was approved in 2015 there is no way we could know that right now. But we know it's very, very unlikely, so we accept that risk.
With vaccines we know from decades of experience that severe side effects tend to occur very shortly (days or maybe weeks) after the injection. So this is why vaccine trials observe participants for weeks or months, not years, before concluding that the vaccine is safe. Of course this doesn't guarantee that the Covid vaccine don't happen to be an exception. But if that was the approach we took then we would never be able to approve anything, and never get the benefits we know for sure it brings.
- cheph 6y ago> You can never know anything for sure. But you can? e.g. "We know that there are no side effects that are common enough to be of real concern."? What deficiency do I have that prevents me from knowing anything for sure that you don't have?
- DangerousPie 6y agoFair enough, I clearly should have phrased that differently. I simplified the wording at the cost of accuracy. The correct wording would be "We know that it is highly unlikely that there are any side effects that ...".
- cheph 6y agoThanks, that is a much more reasonable statement, and I agree. On the one hand we don't know, but on the other hand a lack of knowledge does not mean everything has equal probabilities. I personally don't see any good reason to think that the risk for long term side effects from the vaccine is higher for the vaccine than for COVID itself.
- dnautics 6y agoYour deficiency is that you're not a time traveller. You can't know what the long term consequences are no matter how many studies you do, until the long term has come to pass. You can however guess, and make good guesses (I'm planning on getting the vaccine). But it does no one any good to fail to outline unknowns that are steelmanned by "we can't possibly know".
- pcl 6y agoDangerousPie probably meant "One can never know anything for sure", not "you, cheph, can never know anything for sure, but I, DangerousPie, can". This is a common, but confusing, use of "you" in American English.