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According to the free portion of the article they envision Turkey, A North African state (Algeria? Egypt?) or Russia.

sudosysgen 6y ago
There's no chance that a North African state could project power into France, so presumably such a war would be fought on the soil of that nation. Doesn't bode well :/
- Robotbeat 6y ago
  It could in 50-100 years. Brazil is much more capable than Portugal. But I agree it seems kind of a weird thing to be worried about right now for France. Russia is probably the much bigger threat, but invasion seems pretty unlikely given the distance from Russia and the relatively low population (vs the Soviet Union). I guess some resurgent Soviet Union (ie Eastern Europe comes under the sway of Moscow, voluntarily or otherwise) could do that, but that seems really unlikely. I can see Turkey or Russia invading its neighbors (I mean, Russia literally is doing this right now... slowly consolidating their annexation of parts of Ukraine), but not much further. If Turkey and Russia became strong allies (as well as maybe some disgruntled former colonies), I suppose that could pose a legitimate threat.
  - m00dy 6y ago
    As an insider, I can tell you that Turkey and Russia can never be strong allies, but it could be a partnership. Turkey and Russia are on opposite sides in Syria, Libya, Armenia, and Ukraine. Being on opposite sides is not today's thing. You can easily trace this way back in history. My personal opinion is that Turkey is threatening France's interest in Northern Africa. By saying Northern Africa, I would like to point out countries with a Muslim majority society and have a grim past of French colonization. I think the tension in Northern Africa will escalate. Because I don't believe Turkey would give up its position on Libya. Having a sea border with Libya is directly related to Turkey's potential rights on gas resources in East Mediterranean. Another thing to mention here is Turkey's defense budget on maritime industries. In Turkey's threat modeling, they expect something profound in the Mediterranean soon. We can see this by looking at how much money they invest and how they build ships—the ships equipped with sensitive long-range missiles etc.
    - publicola1990 6y ago
      Turkey is buying advanced weaponry from Russia. Also Russians are building a Nuclear Reactor in Turkey, all points a reasonable working relationship between Turkey and Russia.

There's no chance that a North African state could project power into France, so presumably such a war would be fought on the soil of that nation. Doesn't bode well :/

Robotbeat 6y ago
It could in 50-100 years. Brazil is much more capable than Portugal. But I agree it seems kind of a weird thing to be worried about right now for France. Russia is probably the much bigger threat, but invasion seems pretty unlikely given the distance from Russia and the relatively low population (vs the Soviet Union). I guess some resurgent Soviet Union (ie Eastern Europe comes under the sway of Moscow, voluntarily or otherwise) could do that, but that seems really unlikely. I can see Turkey or Russia invading its neighbors (I mean, Russia literally is doing this right now... slowly consolidating their annexation of parts of Ukraine), but not much further. If Turkey and Russia became strong allies (as well as maybe some disgruntled former colonies), I suppose that could pose a legitimate threat.
- m00dy 6y ago
  As an insider, I can tell you that Turkey and Russia can never be strong allies, but it could be a partnership. Turkey and Russia are on opposite sides in Syria, Libya, Armenia, and Ukraine. Being on opposite sides is not today's thing. You can easily trace this way back in history. My personal opinion is that Turkey is threatening France's interest in Northern Africa. By saying Northern Africa, I would like to point out countries with a Muslim majority society and have a grim past of French colonization. I think the tension in Northern Africa will escalate. Because I don't believe Turkey would give up its position on Libya. Having a sea border with Libya is directly related to Turkey's potential rights on gas resources in East Mediterranean. Another thing to mention here is Turkey's defense budget on maritime industries. In Turkey's threat modeling, they expect something profound in the Mediterranean soon. We can see this by looking at how much money they invest and how they build ships—the ships equipped with sensitive long-range missiles etc.
  - publicola1990 6y ago
    Turkey is buying advanced weaponry from Russia. Also Russians are building a Nuclear Reactor in Turkey, all points a reasonable working relationship between Turkey and Russia.