8 ms·
Avec who?
by throwaway4good 6y ago
Avec who?
- mc32 6y agoGood question. The whole point of globalization and disinterventionism was to avoid hot wars. And, given their potential foes, I’m not sure they want to get into a hot war. More importantly none of the powers have high reproduction rates so they won’t have a large fresh pop from which to draught troops and the robots aren’t quite ready yet, so I don’t know what gives.
- throwaway4good 6y agoThe threath from Africa is of the asymetric counter-insurgency type; not a large scale military to military type this article is about. Neither Russia or China pose any military threath to Europe unless we send our ships right up their shores. Maybe that is what we are about to do?
- goatinaboat 6y agoNeither Russia or China pose any military threath to Europe unless we send our ships right up their shores. Ukraine and the Baltic States are in Europe, no? The Baltic States are, for better or worse, NATO members and the alliance is bound to defend them.
- nspattak 6y agoCan you name some of the latest NATO member that were defended by NATO?
- goatinaboat 6y agoCan you name some of the latest NATO member that were defended by NATO? NATO has the "enhanced forward presence" (tanks) in Estonia and "Baltic air policing" (fighter jets) covering all 3.
- rmind 6y agoWest Germany during the Cold War? At least technically, USA (following 911)?
- sudosysgen 6y agoSo, not a defence. There was no confrontation in East Germany. NATO in practice is an offensive alliance as much as a defensive one.
- goatinaboat 6y agoThere was no confrontation in East Germany. The scenario BAOR was prepared for was the Third Shock Army surging through the Fulda Gap, and likewise the Third was prepared to do that.
- sudosysgen 6y agoThe question was, did NATO ever defend anyone, not "did NATO prepare to defend anyone".
- goatinaboat 6y agoAre you counting defence only as actively fighting in response to an attack? Because deterrence is defence is its passive form of which NATO has done plenty
- iomodo 6y agoSince when Ukraine and Baltic States are not considered in Europe? Do you mean EU?
- literallycancer 6y agoRussia is currently occupying the territory of another European country, or several countries if you count the Caucasus as Europe. What makes you say they pose no threat?
- sudosysgen 6y agoRussian occupation of Ukraine is a bit more complicated. It's in the context of a red line they set out decades ago, which is that NATO wouldn't be able to extend all the way to the Russian border in the south. Now certainly that's a bit unreasonable as countries should be allowed to associate with whoever they want, but it's not exactly a live wire threatening war left and right, it's a red line they set out a very long time ago, and there's not much reason to think they're interested with much beyond that red line.
- mc32 6y agoSevastopol is critical to the Russian navy. It’s like Mexico taking over San Diego. It will not be allowed to happen. The Crimea was not historically part of Ukraine, though for political and administrative purposes it was assigned to the Ukraine soviet republic. Given its criticality Russia took it back.
- Robotbeat 6y agoBalooney. Crimea was not historically part of Russia! Second, Russia is not just annexing Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula but also attempting to annex parts of eastern Ukraine and recently moved a bunch of troops potentially to expand their held territory beyond the peninsula and deeper into central Ukraine. I don’t understand these arguments carrying water for Russia. Yeah, we all know Russia wants to annex parts of Ukraine for what they consider strategic reasons. But we can’t go about justifying wars for annexation in the 21st bloody century! Doesn’t matter if it’s the US, China, or Russia. Annexation is not justifiable.
- mc32 6y agoIt was made part of Russia by the Russian Empire during expansion a couple of centuries ago. It was its own soviet republic prior to WWII and afterwards made part of Ukraine SSR. Now Russia took it back. Majority speak Russian not Ukrainian since most actual native Crimeans were displaced during Soviet era.
- orange_joe 6y agoAccording to the free portion of the article they envision Turkey, A North African state (Algeria? Egypt?) or Russia.
- sudosysgen 6y agoThere's no chance that a North African state could project power into France, so presumably such a war would be fought on the soil of that nation. Doesn't bode well :/
- Robotbeat 6y agoIt could in 50-100 years. Brazil is much more capable than Portugal. But I agree it seems kind of a weird thing to be worried about right now for France. Russia is probably the much bigger threat, but invasion seems pretty unlikely given the distance from Russia and the relatively low population (vs the Soviet Union). I guess some resurgent Soviet Union (ie Eastern Europe comes under the sway of Moscow, voluntarily or otherwise) could do that, but that seems really unlikely. I can see Turkey or Russia invading its neighbors (I mean, Russia literally is doing this right now... slowly consolidating their annexation of parts of Ukraine), but not much further. If Turkey and Russia became strong allies (as well as maybe some disgruntled former colonies), I suppose that could pose a legitimate threat.
- m00dy 6y agoAs an insider, I can tell you that Turkey and Russia can never be strong allies, but it could be a partnership. Turkey and Russia are on opposite sides in Syria, Libya, Armenia, and Ukraine. Being on opposite sides is not today's thing. You can easily trace this way back in history. My personal opinion is that Turkey is threatening France's interest in Northern Africa. By saying Northern Africa, I would like to point out countries with a Muslim majority society and have a grim past of French colonization. I think the tension in Northern Africa will escalate. Because I don't believe Turkey would give up its position on Libya. Having a sea border with Libya is directly related to Turkey's potential rights on gas resources in East Mediterranean. Another thing to mention here is Turkey's defense budget on maritime industries. In Turkey's threat modeling, they expect something profound in the Mediterranean soon. We can see this by looking at how much money they invest and how they build ships—the ships equipped with sensitive long-range missiles etc.
- newsclues 6y agoMilitants in Africa are the current enemies.
- gdsdfe 6y agoMaybe they want to finish what they started in Libya
- _huayra_ 6y agoAvec les Suisses in response for military exercise around France invading https://www.bbc.com/news/24329818 https://www.bbc.com/news/24329818
- av3csr 6y agoTheir largest border is shared with Brazil
- phtrivier 6y agoTechnically right ; but this is the border between French Guyanna and Brazil. I doubt the condition of the exercise in the North-East of France are transferable there. (Although, don't get me wrong, I'm pretty sure there are people in the French army with some ideas about how to wage war in a tropical forest.) That being said, it's still nice to have been alive during a span of ~50 years without any actual full-on people-are-killed-in-your-neighboorhood warfare.
- samus 6y agoAre you referring to the Foreign Legion?