5 ms·

> We know that there are no side effects that are common enough to be of real concern How did they establish that there are no long term side effects?

by cheph 5y ago

_Understated_ 5y ago
You've been unfairly downvoted. Your question is perfectly reasonable. This seems to be characteristic of HN in the last couple of years... very reminiscent of Reddit imo. Long-term effects are one of the main points of study in clinical trials so why would these drugs ben any different?
abduhl 5y ago
Probably the same way they established that long covid is an apparent death sentence.
majewsky 5y ago
Not a doctor, but from what I've heard from immunologists, vaccines in general are incredibly unlikely to have long-term side effects on the scales that you think about. When an immunologist talks about "long-term side effects" of a vaccination, they're usually considering time ranges on the order of 6-8 weeks. Meanwhile, the 10000s of patients from the big Phase 3 trials have been vaccinated for 6-9 months, so the usual scale of long-term side effects has long been registered. That's not to say that it's completely out of the question that there will be long-long-term side effects. But if anything is going to cause long-term issues, my money is on the virus, not any vaccine.
- Solstinox 5y ago
  The only reason we think that is because vaccines in the past have had most of their recorded side effects present in the first few weeks. Past performance...
  - ceejayoz 5y ago
    ... is a pretty decent indicator in this case. Vaccines are not the stock market. No one doubts gravity because "past performance is not indicative of future results".
    - Solstinox 5y ago
      I don’t think gravity and medical intervention risk and uncertainty are in the same domain. I could be wrong.
      - ceejayoz 5y ago
        I'm suggesting you apply the same cross-domain skepticism to your adage that comes from the financial domain.
        Solstinox 5y ago
        The situation here is closer to financial domain than the law of gravity failing.
    - dnautics 5y ago
      > Vaccines are not the stock market How many genetically engineered adenovirus vaccines have there been before? The vaccines that are your prior are typically attenuated or inactivated virus. Majorly different category, we are in untreaded space (I'm still planning on getting one)
      - Ericson2314 5y ago
        You realize attenuated virusues are also genetically modified? Just via artificial selection.
      - lbeltrame 5y ago
        At least one for Ebola, IIRC.
        5y ago
- cheph 5y ago
  > Not a doctor, but from what I've heard from immunologists, vaccines in general are incredibly unlikely to have long-term side effects on the scales that you think about. Fair enough, but the comment I responded to said: "We know that there are no side effects that are common enough to be of real concern." Given this statement is not qualified for timescale, I want to know what the basis for it is. How does the person who made it know there are no side effects on the order of six months or a year that are common enough to be a concern? Look I am all happy chappy with the vaccine, I will inject that sweet MRNA Pfizer or Moderna vaccines as soon as someone lets me at it, but I still think we need to avoid what Fauci does, which is knowingly lie in order to get people to do what we want them to do. There is blood clotting risk from AZ? Great, tell me what the risk is and I can deal with it, but lie to me and we are done talking.
  - nightski 5y ago
    mRNA has a short life span. It merely tricks the body into producing the spike protein. It breaks down in the body fairly rapidly. What long term effects would you anticipate from this? There is a good chance for long term effects from covid. Completely the opposite for the vaccine.
    - cheph 5y ago
      > What long term effects would you anticipate from this? Maybe you are responding to the wrong person? I never made any claims regarding what long term effects to anticipate. I asked how the person I responded to know there are no serious side effects on time scales longer than we have tested things on. > There is a good chance for long term effects from covid. Completely the opposite for the vaccine. Yes. I know.
    - peytn 5y ago
      I think the concerns would be around the delivery vehicle, which presumably is some big polycationic lipid thing. From what I can gather, there’s not terribly much info on what’s known about what’s going into people’s bodies, and what info does exist has arisen from a thick soup of trade secrets and conflicts-of-interest.
- dr-detroit 5y ago
  It was researched as quickly as possible on a for-profit basis. All my friends from college who went into biomed quit because of how corrupt it was and they would start with a profitable hypothesis and work backwards its antiscience and honestly capitalism has a proven track record of poising everyone and anyone to make a penny.
- throwawayboise 5y ago
  The mRNA vaccines are new. We don't know that our experience with other vaccine types will be exactly the same.
fit2rule 5y ago
It hasn't been established yet.
pbak 5y ago
You kind of answer your own question : only time will tell, ironically, and nobody else. Also, to all those saying "clinical trials have succeeded", I strongly suggest them to read said published trial results and look at _measured_ sample sizes used in the results, not total inoculation numbers. Applying the precautionary principle, particularly if you are not at risk, is a perfectly reasonable position, IMHO.

> We know that there are no side effects that are common enough to be of real concern How did they establish that there are no long term side effects?

by cheph 5y ago

> We know that there are no side effects that are common enough to be of real concern How did they establish that there are no long term side effects?

_Understated_ 5y ago

You've been unfairly downvoted. Your question is perfectly reasonable. This seems to be characteristic of HN in the last couple of years... very reminiscent of Reddit imo. Long-term effects are one of the main points of study in clinical trials so why would these drugs ben any different?

abduhl 5y ago

Probably the same way they established that long covid is an apparent death sentence.

majewsky 5y ago

Not a doctor, but from what I've heard from immunologists, vaccines in general are incredibly unlikely to have long-term side effects on the scales that you think about. When an immunologist talks about "long-term side effects" of a vaccination, they're usually considering time ranges on the order of 6-8 weeks. Meanwhile, the 10000s of patients from the big Phase 3 trials have been vaccinated for 6-9 months, so the usual scale of long-term side effects has long been registered. That's not to say that it's completely out of the question that there will be long-long-term side effects. But if anything is going to cause long-term issues, my money is on the virus, not any vaccine.

Solstinox 5y ago
The only reason we think that is because vaccines in the past have had most of their recorded side effects present in the first few weeks. Past performance...
- ceejayoz 5y ago
  ... is a pretty decent indicator in this case. Vaccines are not the stock market. No one doubts gravity because "past performance is not indicative of future results".
  - Solstinox 5y ago
    I don’t think gravity and medical intervention risk and uncertainty are in the same domain. I could be wrong.
    - ceejayoz 5y ago
      I'm suggesting you apply the same cross-domain skepticism to your adage that comes from the financial domain.
      - Solstinox 5y ago
        The situation here is closer to financial domain than the law of gravity failing.
  - dnautics 5y ago
    > Vaccines are not the stock market How many genetically engineered adenovirus vaccines have there been before? The vaccines that are your prior are typically attenuated or inactivated virus. Majorly different category, we are in untreaded space (I'm still planning on getting one)
    - Ericson2314 5y ago
      You realize attenuated virusues are also genetically modified? Just via artificial selection.
    - lbeltrame 5y ago
      At least one for Ebola, IIRC.
      - 5y ago
cheph 5y ago
> Not a doctor, but from what I've heard from immunologists, vaccines in general are incredibly unlikely to have long-term side effects on the scales that you think about. Fair enough, but the comment I responded to said: "We know that there are no side effects that are common enough to be of real concern." Given this statement is not qualified for timescale, I want to know what the basis for it is. How does the person who made it know there are no side effects on the order of six months or a year that are common enough to be a concern? Look I am all happy chappy with the vaccine, I will inject that sweet MRNA Pfizer or Moderna vaccines as soon as someone lets me at it, but I still think we need to avoid what Fauci does, which is knowingly lie in order to get people to do what we want them to do. There is blood clotting risk from AZ? Great, tell me what the risk is and I can deal with it, but lie to me and we are done talking.
- nightski 5y ago
  mRNA has a short life span. It merely tricks the body into producing the spike protein. It breaks down in the body fairly rapidly. What long term effects would you anticipate from this? There is a good chance for long term effects from covid. Completely the opposite for the vaccine.
  - cheph 5y ago
    > What long term effects would you anticipate from this? Maybe you are responding to the wrong person? I never made any claims regarding what long term effects to anticipate. I asked how the person I responded to know there are no serious side effects on time scales longer than we have tested things on. > There is a good chance for long term effects from covid. Completely the opposite for the vaccine. Yes. I know.
  - peytn 5y ago
    I think the concerns would be around the delivery vehicle, which presumably is some big polycationic lipid thing. From what I can gather, there’s not terribly much info on what’s known about what’s going into people’s bodies, and what info does exist has arisen from a thick soup of trade secrets and conflicts-of-interest.
dr-detroit 5y ago
It was researched as quickly as possible on a for-profit basis. All my friends from college who went into biomed quit because of how corrupt it was and they would start with a profitable hypothesis and work backwards its antiscience and honestly capitalism has a proven track record of poising everyone and anyone to make a penny.
throwawayboise 5y ago
The mRNA vaccines are new. We don't know that our experience with other vaccine types will be exactly the same.

fit2rule 5y ago

It hasn't been established yet.

pbak 5y ago

You kind of answer your own question : only time will tell, ironically, and nobody else. Also, to all those saying "clinical trials have succeeded", I strongly suggest them to read said published trial results and look at _measured_ sample sizes used in the results, not total inoculation numbers. Applying the precautionary principle, particularly if you are not at risk, is a perfectly reasonable position, IMHO.