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Intel won't do option #2 as a full-on strategy, for the reasons you mentioned and because it ruins their unique value proposition for government subsidy. But t
by totalZero 6y ago
Intel won't do option #2 as a full-on strategy, for the reasons you mentioned and because it ruins their unique value proposition for government subsidy.
But they do need a little bit of option #2, if only for market share defense against competitors. TSMC obviously prioritizes long-term partnership, but in today's demand environment, every wafer that Intel buys is a wafer that AMD (or Nvidia) cannot.
- SavantIdiot 6y agoAlso: if China marches into Taiwan, TSMC is off the map and the world is fuckered. AliBaba has PinTouge fabs which are ramping like mad. Which means China could shut down TSMC and come out on top.
- mcny 6y agoHow do you think the US (and allies Japan and South Korea) would react if China PR marches into Taiwan? More importantly what do you think China PR thinks the US will do if it marches into Taiwan?
- SavantIdiot 6y agoI think the allies would be immobilized with fear? The same way Russia annexed Crimea and nothing happened except stern finger wagging from allies. Little Donnie Dipshit tried to push China around and they laughed in his face. I'm pretty sure that emboldened them.
- Fnoord 6y agoTaiwan has a different strategic importance than Crimea or Eastern Ukraine.
- totalZero 6y agoTotally depends. If destruction of fabs and infrastructure is a fait accompli, war is less likely than if there is still a chance to save the fabs.
- emodendroket 6y agoThe US strategy on China is also all about denying China cutting edge chips which makes the dependence on Taiwan a source of precarity.
- throwaway6734 6y agoI imagine the TSMC fab would be destroyed before being allowed into Chinese hands
- vkou 6y agoAnd then we'll get a decade-long global chip shortage, instead of a year-long one. It's a perfect example of cutting one's nose to spite one's face. Also, Taiwan will end up a large, long-term loser of that, as well. China's ambitions on Taiwan have nearly zero to do with TSMC's presence there. (And everything to do with the past 80 years of history - more specifically, its desire to 'conclude' the civil war. If Taiwan's didn't have a chip industry, the PRC would still have the same goals.)
- throwaway6734 6y ago>And then we'll get a decade-long global chip shortage, instead of a year-long one. Sure and the fabs that get spun up will not be under CCP control which is a clear win.
- vkou 6y agoNose, cut, spite, face. There's no guarantee that's going to be the outcome, and even if it was, it's not one that I'm interested in paying the cost of admission to.