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Here's a good video by Wired why the 7-10 split is almost impossible. "Why It’s Almost Impossible to Make a 7-10 Split in Bowling | WIRED" https://www.youtube

Here's a good video by Wired why the 7-10 split is almost impossible. "Why It’s Almost Impossible to Make a 7-10 Split in Bowling | WIRED" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EMoSsCDgZys https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EMoSsCDgZys

panda-giddiness 5y ago
Thanks, that was a surprisingly informative video! I'll admit my initial impression when watching the 7-10 conversion was to think "So what? All he did was bounce the pin off the machinery! It was just a lucky shot." My perspective flipped once I understood that bouncing the pin off the machinery is a requirement for conversion. Incidentally, I once witnessed a 7-10 conversion, though the technique was quite a bit different from the technique employed by the professional. Rather than striking one of the pins with as much force as possible, the bowler accidentally launched the ball a few feet into the air such that the ball's quake, upon reunion with terra firma, caused one of the pins to fall over, with the second pin falling when the ball miraculously managed to strike it.
- dogma1138 5y ago
  That one technically wouldn’t be legal, the pins must drop by coming in contact with the ball or another pin.
thaumasiotes 5y ago
The video made me curious about the Greek Church strategy. As described: - 60% of professional frames are strikes. - The Greek Church is rarely converted because bowlers prefer to go for "count", maximizing the number of pins they knock down in the second half of the frame. You can take a basically 100% chance of 3 pins, or a lower chance of 5 pins. - Those 3 pins are worth 3 points, or 6 points if you bowled a strike last frame. - Converting the Greek Church is not unachievable. The robot got it 40% of the time. Assumptions: - If you pick up the spare, you have a 60% chance of bowling a strike next frame, and a 40% chance of bowling a gutter ball for 0 pins. This is worth 5+6 points. (5 for the pins required to pick up the spare, and 6 for the 60% chance of 10 pins on the next shot you take.) - If you attempt to pick up the spare, you have some chance of succeeding, and otherwise, you'll hit 1 pin. - If you don't even attempt to pick up the spare, you always hit 3 pins. Under those assumptions, you're better off trying to get the spare if your success rate is more than 20% (and you didn't bowl a strike last frame), or if it's more than 29% and you did get a strike last frame. And picking up the spare only becomes more valuable if, during the 40% of frames when you don't bowl a strike, you do still hit some pins in the first half of the frame. The professional bowler took 12 tries to convert a Greek Church. That implies a success rate well below where it would make sense to try to convert. But it might also reflect a lack of practice. If practice could get you to double that rate, it seems like people should be converting Greek Churches all the time.
dehrmann 5y ago
The bias (I wish they used that word) between the 7-10 split and the Greek Church was a good, practical example of how you have to be careful with stats.
AlchemistCamp 5y ago
Very interesting. I converted it a dozen times as teenager. Once, it happened twice in a single game. A big caveat is that, I was playing ~50 games a week from age 13-15 when there was a promotion that let members of two leagues play unlimited free practice games. I used a 16lb ball, threw just over 20mph with as little hook as possible and tried to hit the 10 pin in such a way as to send it near the corner of the pit. At least on those lanes back then, that lead to a high percentage (maybe 15%) bouncing out of the pit. Occassionally that bounce would get the 7. Even in the 90s, 7-10s were significantly harder in professional play due to their using heavier pins than you'd see in normal league or practice games. The new pin screens shown in this video make it look like the 7-10 probably is now even another five times harder to convert than it already was! I totally agree with the last part, too. In all those free practice games I bowled as a teenager, I never converted a single 4-6, "big four" or a "Greek church".
- egberts1 5y ago
  13-15 years old? Sheesh. Those sweet years but with free golfing. Managed a couple of hole-in-ones on a decent golf course this way. Too bad that I literally outgrew that sport.
  - AlchemistCamp 5y ago
    Golf always seemed interesting but more expensive and I don't think I knew a single kid who played when I was that age. I started bowling at ten and gradually got more into it until practice became free a few years later. There does seem to be a fantastic window for improving at sports in that age range. Or maybe it's just that people have time at that age before homework loads and school activities increase a few years later.
andrepd 5y ago
It's already difficult enough on the Wii!
tim333 5y ago
It's interesting the shot made recently in the twitter vid was different to how they described it working in the youtube in that in the youtube they suggested the pin would bounce of the curtain at the back whereas in the twitter vid it bounces off the side wall.

panda-giddiness 5y ago

Thanks, that was a surprisingly informative video! I'll admit my initial impression when watching the 7-10 conversion was to think "So what? All he did was bounce the pin off the machinery! It was just a lucky shot." My perspective flipped once I understood that bouncing the pin off the machinery is a requirement for conversion. Incidentally, I once witnessed a 7-10 conversion, though the technique was quite a bit different from the technique employed by the professional. Rather than striking one of the pins with as much force as possible, the bowler accidentally launched the ball a few feet into the air such that the ball's quake, upon reunion with terra firma, caused one of the pins to fall over, with the second pin falling when the ball miraculously managed to strike it.

dogma1138 5y ago
That one technically wouldn’t be legal, the pins must drop by coming in contact with the ball or another pin.

thaumasiotes 5y ago

The video made me curious about the Greek Church strategy. As described: - 60% of professional frames are strikes. - The Greek Church is rarely converted because bowlers prefer to go for "count", maximizing the number of pins they knock down in the second half of the frame. You can take a basically 100% chance of 3 pins, or a lower chance of 5 pins. - Those 3 pins are worth 3 points, or 6 points if you bowled a strike last frame. - Converting the Greek Church is not unachievable. The robot got it 40% of the time. Assumptions: - If you pick up the spare, you have a 60% chance of bowling a strike next frame, and a 40% chance of bowling a gutter ball for 0 pins. This is worth 5+6 points. (5 for the pins required to pick up the spare, and 6 for the 60% chance of 10 pins on the next shot you take.) - If you attempt to pick up the spare, you have some chance of succeeding, and otherwise, you'll hit 1 pin. - If you don't even attempt to pick up the spare, you always hit 3 pins. Under those assumptions, you're better off trying to get the spare if your success rate is more than 20% (and you didn't bowl a strike last frame), or if it's more than 29% and you did get a strike last frame. And picking up the spare only becomes more valuable if, during the 40% of frames when you don't bowl a strike, you do still hit some pins in the first half of the frame. The professional bowler took 12 tries to convert a Greek Church. That implies a success rate well below where it would make sense to try to convert. But it might also reflect a lack of practice. If practice could get you to double that rate, it seems like people should be converting Greek Churches all the time.

dehrmann 5y ago

The bias (I wish they used that word) between the 7-10 split and the Greek Church was a good, practical example of how you have to be careful with stats.

AlchemistCamp 5y ago

Very interesting. I converted it a dozen times as teenager. Once, it happened twice in a single game. A big caveat is that, I was playing ~50 games a week from age 13-15 when there was a promotion that let members of two leagues play unlimited free practice games. I used a 16lb ball, threw just over 20mph with as little hook as possible and tried to hit the 10 pin in such a way as to send it near the corner of the pit. At least on those lanes back then, that lead to a high percentage (maybe 15%) bouncing out of the pit. Occassionally that bounce would get the 7. Even in the 90s, 7-10s were significantly harder in professional play due to their using heavier pins than you'd see in normal league or practice games. The new pin screens shown in this video make it look like the 7-10 probably is now even another five times harder to convert than it already was! I totally agree with the last part, too. In all those free practice games I bowled as a teenager, I never converted a single 4-6, "big four" or a "Greek church".

egberts1 5y ago
13-15 years old? Sheesh. Those sweet years but with free golfing. Managed a couple of hole-in-ones on a decent golf course this way. Too bad that I literally outgrew that sport.
- AlchemistCamp 5y ago
  Golf always seemed interesting but more expensive and I don't think I knew a single kid who played when I was that age. I started bowling at ten and gradually got more into it until practice became free a few years later. There does seem to be a fantastic window for improving at sports in that age range. Or maybe it's just that people have time at that age before homework loads and school activities increase a few years later.

andrepd 5y ago

It's already difficult enough on the Wii!

tim333 5y ago

It's interesting the shot made recently in the twitter vid was different to how they described it working in the youtube in that in the youtube they suggested the pin would bounce of the curtain at the back whereas in the twitter vid it bounces off the side wall.