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Agreed. Maybe unpopular opinion, but entrepreneur insights from CEOs are rarely valuable because no individual contribution outweighs sheer luck. Every day mill

Agreed. Maybe unpopular opinion, but entrepreneur insights from CEOs are rarely valuable because no individual contribution outweighs sheer luck. Every day millions of people make smart decisions, take good risks, and work hard without significantly improving their conditions. It is pure survivorship bias to think individuals are capable of more than slightly nudging the cosmic needle if it happens to land near the right place. It makes people uncomfortable to think that success is mostly a matter of luck. I am extremely lucky to be where I am in my career, and I greatly respect people who can admit this instead of rambling about “hustle.”

ritchiea 6y ago
Not even just luck, there are biases in who gets funding in the first place. PG himself says he's biased toward founders that remind him of Zuckerberg and other past founders. That group is very predominantly white and affluent with a small cut of Asian-american and affluent and a small cut of other. It helps a lot to have an affluent background when you start a tech company because, like a lot of other risky endeavors, even though the potential rewards are enormous it's a lot less initial earnings than just joining a company as an employee. And you worry whether if your company doesn't take off and get its next round of funding in a few months if it'll be harder to get that first job. And you may be poorer than you were pre-startup. Not to mention that poorer kids might not ever see starting a tech startup as an option. Both because of the biases in which founders get funding and because they may culturally never have the option floated to them.
MomoXenosaga 6y ago
I recall the 1999 tech bubble. Lots of companies went under in the crash that might have made it today. There is a ton of VC money in Sillicon Valley again.
- hnick 6y ago
  So where is that VC money getting spent besides salaries? What's the modern equivalent of selling shovels to the miners? AWS?
TapWaterBandit 6y ago
> It makes people uncomfortable to think that success is mostly a matter of luck. I constantly hear this sentiment and don't think it makes people uncomfortable at all. If anything it is the opposite, people cling to this idea to absolve themselves of responsibility for their own situation. What makes people far more uncomfortable is the nagging feeling that success isn't mostly a matter of luck. Success is a choice in life that requires restraint, sacrifice, an appetite for risk, and resilience. But if you follow some basic rules (finish high school, don't have kids before marriage, don't do drugs or smoke, minimise alcohol, eat healthy and exercise, don't buy things to impress others), you have a very good chance of being successful in life. Obviously we can't all be billionaires or whatever, but you can definitely live a fairly comfortable and modest life.
- rcurry 6y ago
  Keith Richards might disagree with you...
- seattle_spring 6y ago
  Ironically, people I know who did the most drugs in high school (myself included) are the most successful out of the people I know. The straight-laced A students are all way behind.
  - mc32 6y ago
    There’s a bifurcation. Yes, I know kids who did drugs (partied as they say) and have some success in life. I also knew some kids who did drugs and barely graduated or dropped out and did poorly or are just hanging on and a handful who didn’t make it out of young adulthood due to those choices. What we need are statistics to tell us what is more likely, not our particular anecdotes.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
  - TapWaterBandit 6y ago
    I did plenty of drugs too and am doing just fine as well. Not a million or billionaire, but that is a pretty tough standard to meet. That being said, only drugs I ever did were weed, acid, shrooms, MDMA, and trying the odd pharmaceutical. Never any opoids of any sort, never meth etc. And in terms of broad advice, I think not doing drugs is still a fairly consistent rule for good outcomes.

ritchiea 6y ago

Not even just luck, there are biases in who gets funding in the first place. PG himself says he's biased toward founders that remind him of Zuckerberg and other past founders. That group is very predominantly white and affluent with a small cut of Asian-american and affluent and a small cut of other. It helps a lot to have an affluent background when you start a tech company because, like a lot of other risky endeavors, even though the potential rewards are enormous it's a lot less initial earnings than just joining a company as an employee. And you worry whether if your company doesn't take off and get its next round of funding in a few months if it'll be harder to get that first job. And you may be poorer than you were pre-startup. Not to mention that poorer kids might not ever see starting a tech startup as an option. Both because of the biases in which founders get funding and because they may culturally never have the option floated to them.

MomoXenosaga 6y ago

I recall the 1999 tech bubble. Lots of companies went under in the crash that might have made it today. There is a ton of VC money in Sillicon Valley again.

hnick 6y ago
So where is that VC money getting spent besides salaries? What's the modern equivalent of selling shovels to the miners? AWS?

TapWaterBandit 6y ago

> It makes people uncomfortable to think that success is mostly a matter of luck. I constantly hear this sentiment and don't think it makes people uncomfortable at all. If anything it is the opposite, people cling to this idea to absolve themselves of responsibility for their own situation. What makes people far more uncomfortable is the nagging feeling that success isn't mostly a matter of luck. Success is a choice in life that requires restraint, sacrifice, an appetite for risk, and resilience. But if you follow some basic rules (finish high school, don't have kids before marriage, don't do drugs or smoke, minimise alcohol, eat healthy and exercise, don't buy things to impress others), you have a very good chance of being successful in life. Obviously we can't all be billionaires or whatever, but you can definitely live a fairly comfortable and modest life.

rcurry 6y ago
Keith Richards might disagree with you...
seattle_spring 6y ago
Ironically, people I know who did the most drugs in high school (myself included) are the most successful out of the people I know. The straight-laced A students are all way behind.
- mc32 6y ago
  There’s a bifurcation. Yes, I know kids who did drugs (partied as they say) and have some success in life. I also knew some kids who did drugs and barely graduated or dropped out and did poorly or are just hanging on and a handful who didn’t make it out of young adulthood due to those choices. What we need are statistics to tell us what is more likely, not our particular anecdotes.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- TapWaterBandit 6y ago
  I did plenty of drugs too and am doing just fine as well. Not a million or billionaire, but that is a pretty tough standard to meet. That being said, only drugs I ever did were weed, acid, shrooms, MDMA, and trying the odd pharmaceutical. Never any opoids of any sort, never meth etc. And in terms of broad advice, I think not doing drugs is still a fairly consistent rule for good outcomes.