Long-term economic cycles, 70+ years long (Kondratiev cycles if I remember my classes) are linked to deep trends: Petrol appears, we rework all cities around pe

Long-term economic cycles, 70+ years long (Kondratiev cycles if I remember my classes) are linked to deep trends: Petrol appears, we rework all cities around petrol distribution, new opportunities are built, then stagnate then comes global warming and we undo all of this and people grow out of it. I associate Paul Graham’s single cycle example to the one of petroleum. And the new cycle is of the computer age. And there will be S&Ps and world domination and boring climb-the-ladder careers and the stagnation of the 1990ies, but in 2090. The bad news is, companies which exist during the ramp-up phase are also the major players until the stagnation phase. That’s why stakes are so high and valuations with dozens of multiples: A share of the right company today is a share in the control of the world in 2060.