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I recently came across Polymarket[1] and am really excited about what crypto has in store for prediction markets and insurance. I've dabbled in prediction marke
by cl42 6y ago
I recently came across Polymarket[1] and am really excited about what crypto has in store for prediction markets and insurance. I've dabbled in prediction markets over the years. I think they have a lot of promise but execution is always an issue. Using ETH to create a two-sided marketplace feels much better than having prediction markets decide what one can bet on.
More broadly, decentralizing insurance in this way would be very cool too... There's little difference, in my mind, between a prediction market predicting weather changes or elections, and insurance contracts around risk.
... and what's even cooler is: can we build bots and models to actually get an edge on these predictions? Imagine applying HFT strategies from stocks to predicting real-world events... Now it sounds like we can actually get good at forecasting difficult-to-predict human events, rather than just stock prices.
[1] https://polymarket.com/ https://polymarket.com/
- hanniabu 6y agoDoesn't seem much different than Auger
- cl42 6y agoWhen I played with Augur, the community was very quiet and not a lot was going on. That was a big challenge for me. I also didn't like that you had to use their crypto to actually participate -- in Polymarket's case, I understand that they are using ETH smart contracts. There are definitely a few players in this space and I'm excited to see where it goes.
- hanniabu 6y agoInteresting, and yeah I will always favor platforms that use ETH vs creating their own token so I'll check this out.
- nojito 6y agoFees are borderline insane if you are a small volume trader. If you’re in the US there is a regulated prediction market set to launch soon.
- secfirstmd 6y agoIs there really? I worked at Intrade when I was in college. It was messy internally but a great concept. Pity the US Gov smashed it. It had a lot of potential.
- cl42 6y agoAgreed. Very expensive if you're throwing in a bit of cash. Do you have more info about the regulated prediction market? I'd love to learn more.
- tfehring 6y agoWhat is Polymarket doing in the insurance space? Didn't see anything along those lines on their site. I've previously encountered https://etherisc.com https://etherisc.com in passing, but it's not clear that they have a plan to address the hard parts, particularly leverage/capitalization. I'll also mention/disclose that my current employer, https://ledgerinvesting.com https://ledgerinvesting.com, is doing some cool stuff in the direction of decentralized insurance.
- cl42 6y agoThey focus only on prediction markets. I just meant that insurance and prediction markets are two sides of the same coin. Thanks for sharing those links though -- I will check them out.