It’s not the gambler’s fallacy since they’re treating each flight as an independent event: Probability of dying on one flight: 1/10,000,000 Probability of sur

It’s not the gambler’s fallacy since they’re treating each flight as an independent event: Probability of dying on one flight: 1/10,000,000 Probability of surviving one flight: 1-1/10,000,000 = 9,999,999/10,000,000 Probability of surviving 100 flights: (9,999,999/10,000,000)^100 Probability of not surviving 100 flights: 1-(9,999,999/10,000,000)^100 ~ 1/100,000. I don’t know if the initial assumption of 1/10,000,000 survival rate is accurate, but the math is correct. And when you have a probability that’s very small, you can skip all that and approximate by multiplying the probability by the number of events: 1/10,000,000 * 100 = 1/100,000. That’s thanks to the binomial approximation.