4 ms·
I love these type of prediction articles from the past. I loved the specificity, depth, and unbridled optimism of the article. Though most of it was wrong in t
by pcurve 6y ago
I love these type of prediction articles from the past. I loved the specificity, depth, and unbridled optimism of the article.
Though most of it was wrong in terms of timing, this was bang on: "Around 2010, Intel builds a chip with a billion transistors". Intel released core i7 chip with 1.16 billion transistors in 2010. I guess Moore's law was still in full effect.
Even though timing was wrong, I do feel the authors will be eventually proven right on many. Clearly they were intentionally being overly optimistic, by the way they end the article.
- mysterypie 6y ago> prediction articles from the past -- I loved the specificity, depth, and unbridled optimism Talking about Wired's unbridled optimism: I recall a Wired article from approximately 20 years ago that predicted that someone born 20 years later (i.e. born today) would ride the technology curve to infinite lifespan. As he or she got older, more and more longevity problems would be solved keeping pace with your age. Today would be date to be born at which technology could outrace death. I wish I could find the article to re-read it to see how the arguments hold up. A phrase from the article that sticks in my mind is something like if you're born negative 20 years ago, then bingo, where the author meant that "negative 20", from his perspective, is 20 years in the future.
- Isinlor 6y agoIt's still possible that people born today will stop aging at some point e.g. when they get to be 50 years old in 2070. There are some promising venues like CRISPR, mRNA related research or stem cells. There is also very serious possibility of super-humanity AGI in the next 50 years.