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If 1 person rides a motorcycle and 10000 people drive cars, then the absolute risk of motorcycle accidents will of course be lower, but that doesn't mean they a

by ddeck 5y ago

If 1 person rides a motorcycle and 10000 people drive cars, then the absolute risk of motorcycle accidents will of course be lower, but that doesn't mean they are lower for the person riding the motorcycle vs an average car driver.

carlmr 5y ago
This is also called the base rate fallacy. As soon as you put it into relation to the base rate you get a more useful number for your own decisions. For example if the numbers are stated as above (1:10000 ratio in people driving motorcycles to people driving cars), you have to multiply the risk of motorcycling by 10000 to get it to the same level as the risk of driving. If you look up the numbers there are 8.3 million motorcycles registered in the US. While there's a total of 273 million registered vehicles (this includes motorcycles). I used 2018 numbers for both, to make them comparable. https://www.iihs.org/api/datastoredocument/bibliography/2181 https://www.iihs.org/api/datastoredocument/bibliography/2181 https://www.statista.com/statistics/183505/number-of-vehicles-in-the-united-states-since-1990/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/183505/number-of-vehicle... The number stated in the odds is also for all vehicles I assume since motorcycles are motor vehicles. This leads us to 8.3/273~3.04% of the vehicles on the road in the US are motorcycles. That means that you have to compare 1/899 / 3.04% to the 1/107 figure. I.e. lifetime chance of death with motorcycle is roughly 3.66% and chance of death with any motor vehicle is 0.93%. This of course still ignores details like how often people use their motorcycle (usually fewer kms than in cars), which roads they use (more dangerous but fun country roads instead of highways), etc. but it gives you at least a ballpark estimate that using a motorcycle will up your risk by about a factor of 4x vs any motor vehicle (any including motorcycles). Also you can only die once, so if you're a heavy smoker you probably lessen your risk of motorcycle death considerably.
- occamrazor 5y ago
  Cancer victims are usually older than motorcycle accident victims. The effect works in the other direction: riding a motorcycle prevents cancer death in heavy smokers!
  - carlmr 5y ago
    I mean it will be both, but I guess you're correct that the reverse effect will be larger.

by ddeck 5y ago

carlmr 5y ago

This is also called the base rate fallacy. As soon as you put it into relation to the base rate you get a more useful number for your own decisions. For example if the numbers are stated as above (1:10000 ratio in people driving motorcycles to people driving cars), you have to multiply the risk of motorcycling by 10000 to get it to the same level as the risk of driving. If you look up the numbers there are 8.3 million motorcycles registered in the US. While there's a total of 273 million registered vehicles (this includes motorcycles). I used 2018 numbers for both, to make them comparable. https://www.iihs.org/api/datastoredocument/bibliography/2181 https://www.iihs.org/api/datastoredocument/bibliography/2181 https://www.statista.com/statistics/183505/number-of-vehicles-in-the-united-states-since-1990/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/183505/number-of-vehicle... The number stated in the odds is also for all vehicles I assume since motorcycles are motor vehicles. This leads us to 8.3/273~3.04% of the vehicles on the road in the US are motorcycles. That means that you have to compare 1/899 / 3.04% to the 1/107 figure. I.e. lifetime chance of death with motorcycle is roughly 3.66% and chance of death with any motor vehicle is 0.93%. This of course still ignores details like how often people use their motorcycle (usually fewer kms than in cars), which roads they use (more dangerous but fun country roads instead of highways), etc. but it gives you at least a ballpark estimate that using a motorcycle will up your risk by about a factor of 4x vs any motor vehicle (any including motorcycles). Also you can only die once, so if you're a heavy smoker you probably lessen your risk of motorcycle death considerably.

occamrazor 5y ago
Cancer victims are usually older than motorcycle accident victims. The effect works in the other direction: riding a motorcycle prevents cancer death in heavy smokers!
- carlmr 5y ago
  I mean it will be both, but I guess you're correct that the reverse effect will be larger.