4 ms·

Thank you for the detailed response. As a layperson, these specifics are over my head. Assuming everything you say is true, that still would not rule out a lab

Thank you for the detailed response. As a layperson, these specifics are over my head. Assuming everything you say is true, that still would not rule out a lab leak of a virus collected from nature, would it? >You can't do it in the time we've been able to handle viruses like this or modify them in the ways we can. You'd have needed to start a few decades ago, have tools that we've only just invented, and a huge number of willing test subjects. Does this imply that covid19 has been circulating among humans for a very long time?

jeduehr 6y ago
Yes, a lab leak of a virus collected from nature is the most plausible of these lab theories. But the epidemiological evidence points to covid-19 originating outside wuhan entirely, that's why I find that theory less likely, among other reasons. See here: https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/-/fqpcfs2 https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/-/fqpcfs2 Also if they had collected it in nature, it would have been in their freezers, or likely that people involved in that research would have been patient zero etc. See here: https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/-/fqpcf33 https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/-/fqpcf33 https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/-/fqpce2z https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/-/fqpce2z Wuhan institute of virology also aren't the labs I'm worried about. They were built and designed by very reputable people in the virology community. Not saying you should trust them, but at least recognize that the people who are most qualified to distrust them think it's unlikely. See here: https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/-/fqpccr1 https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/-/fqpccr1 >Does this imply covid-19 has been circulating in humans a long time? No, it implies it was relatively stable passing amongst several species of bats (and other related mammals) before a single or a few crossover events into humans recently. It's behaving exactly like we would expect a zoonotic transmission to behave. It's not very well adapted to bats, it's not very well adapted to humans. It's sort of "promiscuous" likely because it has infected several different species over several decades before arriving in humans.
- drran 6y ago
  So, we have two patients with SARS-CoV-2 in France[0] and China[1] on November 17, and the whole epidemic in Russia[2]. Hmm. [0]: https://www.francetvinfo.fr/sante/maladie/coronavirus/coronavirus-un-premier-cas-de-covid-19-remontant-au-2-decembre-confirme-en-alsace_3952985.html https://www.francetvinfo.fr/sante/maladie/coronavirus/corona... [1]: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3074991/coronavirus-chinas-first-confirmed-covid-19-case-traced-back https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3074991/coro... [2]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nMh11FtfaP0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nMh11FtfaP0
- natch 6y ago
  > They were built and designed by very reputable people in the virology community. Anyone under the thumb of communist party minders is by definition not in a position to freely act as a very reputable person. They may very well have a reputation, but they are not free to fulfill it well.
  - jeduehr 6y ago
    Then why has Shi Zhengli continued to support the zoonotic crossover theory as the most likely when the communist party no longer does? They left that behind a long time ago in favor of "The US did it."
    - natch 6y ago
      Scientists in China play balancing acts all the time. They have to assess the risks and decide on a case by case basis what to say. I’m not inside her head but perhaps she also wants to try to maintain some scientific credibility for herself. It’s fine to wonder why, as you are, as long as you don’t assume that the question existing acts as a validation of your position.
- temp8964 6y ago
  > covid-19 originating outside wuhan entirely, Is this the main stream opinion now? Can you provide a link? Or is this just your personal opinion?

jeduehr 6y ago

Yes, a lab leak of a virus collected from nature is the most plausible of these lab theories. But the epidemiological evidence points to covid-19 originating outside wuhan entirely, that's why I find that theory less likely, among other reasons. See here: https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/-/fqpcfs2 https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/-/fqpcfs2 Also if they had collected it in nature, it would have been in their freezers, or likely that people involved in that research would have been patient zero etc. See here: https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/-/fqpcf33 https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/-/fqpcf33 https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/-/fqpce2z https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/-/fqpce2z Wuhan institute of virology also aren't the labs I'm worried about. They were built and designed by very reputable people in the virology community. Not saying you should trust them, but at least recognize that the people who are most qualified to distrust them think it's unlikely. See here: https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/-/fqpccr1 https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/-/fqpccr1 >Does this imply covid-19 has been circulating in humans a long time? No, it implies it was relatively stable passing amongst several species of bats (and other related mammals) before a single or a few crossover events into humans recently. It's behaving exactly like we would expect a zoonotic transmission to behave. It's not very well adapted to bats, it's not very well adapted to humans. It's sort of "promiscuous" likely because it has infected several different species over several decades before arriving in humans.

drran 6y ago
So, we have two patients with SARS-CoV-2 in France[0] and China[1] on November 17, and the whole epidemic in Russia[2]. Hmm. [0]: https://www.francetvinfo.fr/sante/maladie/coronavirus/coronavirus-un-premier-cas-de-covid-19-remontant-au-2-decembre-confirme-en-alsace_3952985.html https://www.francetvinfo.fr/sante/maladie/coronavirus/corona... [1]: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3074991/coronavirus-chinas-first-confirmed-covid-19-case-traced-back https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3074991/coro... [2]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nMh11FtfaP0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nMh11FtfaP0
natch 6y ago
> They were built and designed by very reputable people in the virology community. Anyone under the thumb of communist party minders is by definition not in a position to freely act as a very reputable person. They may very well have a reputation, but they are not free to fulfill it well.
- jeduehr 6y ago
  Then why has Shi Zhengli continued to support the zoonotic crossover theory as the most likely when the communist party no longer does? They left that behind a long time ago in favor of "The US did it."
  - natch 6y ago
    Scientists in China play balancing acts all the time. They have to assess the risks and decide on a case by case basis what to say. I’m not inside her head but perhaps she also wants to try to maintain some scientific credibility for herself. It’s fine to wonder why, as you are, as long as you don’t assume that the question existing acts as a validation of your position.
temp8964 6y ago
> covid-19 originating outside wuhan entirely, Is this the main stream opinion now? Can you provide a link? Or is this just your personal opinion?