7 ms·

Which part of #1 is false? 1.1 Gain of function research primarily uses samples collected from nature 1.2 and seeks to stimulate their evolution in as natural

Which part of #1 is false? 1.1 Gain of function research primarily uses samples collected from nature 1.2 and seeks to stimulate their evolution in as natural a way as possible to learn how viruses evolve in nature. 1.3 If such viruses were to escape the lab, they would appear "natural"

jeduehr 6y ago
1.3. you cannot take any virus known in nature (like Ratg-13 for example) and "cook" it for long enough or in any specific way to make it look like SARS-CoV-2. You can't do it in the time we've been able to handle viruses like this or modify them in the ways we can. You'd have needed to start a few decades ago, have tools that we've only just invented, and a huge number of willing test subjects. I cover this in extreme detail in the post I linked under Q2 and Q3. https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/-/fqpbt6o https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/-/fqpbt6o https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/-/fqpc7c8 https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/-/fqpc7c8 One of the most compelling pieces of evidence is the synonymous/nonsynonomous ratio of the genome and it's mosaic mutations. That's not something you can just cook up over night, it takes many millions of viral generations which require A) diverse hosts (like you find in a natural ecosystem), B) many millions of hosts, like you find in nature, and C) decades of time. The chinese virology labs don't have the resources, time, or space to do something like that. And maybe it would be kind of possible today with CRISPR and many thousands of oligonucleotides printed off of a desktop printer, but that technology hasn't existed for more than a few years. The timelines just don't add up.
- loveistheanswer 6y ago
  Thank you for the detailed response. As a layperson, these specifics are over my head. Assuming everything you say is true, that still would not rule out a lab leak of a virus collected from nature, would it? >You can't do it in the time we've been able to handle viruses like this or modify them in the ways we can. You'd have needed to start a few decades ago, have tools that we've only just invented, and a huge number of willing test subjects. Does this imply that covid19 has been circulating among humans for a very long time?
  - jeduehr 6y ago
    Yes, a lab leak of a virus collected from nature is the most plausible of these lab theories. But the epidemiological evidence points to covid-19 originating outside wuhan entirely, that's why I find that theory less likely, among other reasons. See here: https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/-/fqpcfs2 https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/-/fqpcfs2 Also if they had collected it in nature, it would have been in their freezers, or likely that people involved in that research would have been patient zero etc. See here: https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/-/fqpcf33 https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/-/fqpcf33 https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/-/fqpce2z https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/-/fqpce2z Wuhan institute of virology also aren't the labs I'm worried about. They were built and designed by very reputable people in the virology community. Not saying you should trust them, but at least recognize that the people who are most qualified to distrust them think it's unlikely. See here: https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/-/fqpccr1 https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/-/fqpccr1 >Does this imply covid-19 has been circulating in humans a long time? No, it implies it was relatively stable passing amongst several species of bats (and other related mammals) before a single or a few crossover events into humans recently. It's behaving exactly like we would expect a zoonotic transmission to behave. It's not very well adapted to bats, it's not very well adapted to humans. It's sort of "promiscuous" likely because it has infected several different species over several decades before arriving in humans.
    - drran 6y ago
      So, we have two patients with SARS-CoV-2 in France[0] and China[1] on November 17, and the whole epidemic in Russia[2]. Hmm. [0]: https://www.francetvinfo.fr/sante/maladie/coronavirus/coronavirus-un-premier-cas-de-covid-19-remontant-au-2-decembre-confirme-en-alsace_3952985.html https://www.francetvinfo.fr/sante/maladie/coronavirus/corona... [1]: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3074991/coronavirus-chinas-first-confirmed-covid-19-case-traced-back https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3074991/coro... [2]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nMh11FtfaP0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nMh11FtfaP0
    - natch 6y ago
- AndrewBissell 6y ago
  > and a huge number of willing test subjects Who said the test subjects have to be willing? That's never stopped our government before.
  - jeduehr 6y ago
    Okay they at least need to stay quiet, sit in their warehouse of cages, and no journalists need to find out about it. And there can't be any leaks from anyone involved suddenly gaining a deathbed conscience. The conspiracy becomes so immense it's absurd the many thousands of people who would have to keep quiet.
    - natch 6y ago
      You have absolutely no clue whatsoever about China.
    - temp8964 6y ago
      > The conspiracy becomes so immense it's absurd the many thousands of people who would have to keep quiet. This really indicates you have idea about China. The CCP can easily make millions and tens of millions not only quiet, but enthusiastically deny what happened to them.
      - whydoibother 6y ago
        Fuck off with this racist garbage.
      - DiogenesKynikos 6y ago
        The existence of the outbreak in Wuhan leaked within 72 hours of the first suspicious patient test results coming back. China is not the black box many Americans and Europeans think it is.
        temp8964 6y ago
        That's only because at the time the central government didn't know what's happening. After that, you don't even know how many patients died. Check China's death count to see how unreal it is. And not a single doctor in the whole country dear to speak out.
- abecedarius 6y ago
  WIV had many unpublished coronavirus samples, and took their database offline in fall 2019. RaTG13 is just the least distant relative to SARS-CoV-2 that they did publish.
- natch 6y ago
  > you cannot take any virus known in nature That is such a straw man. I seriously doubt anyone, much less a signatory to the recent open letter (many with experience and knowledge far beyond yours) would have claimed they can take ANY virus and transform it to ANY OTHER virus. Your green handle just lost any respect I might have extended to it.
  - mushishi 6y ago
    I feel their intention was to say that there is no known virus in nature that could be transformed to specifically SARS-CoV-2?
    - jeduehr 6y ago
      yeah, not in the time frame available or with the tools available. It would either have to be some hidden virus that they all lied about, or somehow an unknown contaminant in their samples that then also disappeared when they looked. All new assumptions that make this theory less likely.
      - natch 6y ago
        Or, rather than starting with ANY virus as in your straw man, the lab started with a strain of the actual virus, from nature, and then leaked it with or without changes. Note the “or without” part. I don’t see how you rule this out.
- drran 6y ago
  > 1.3. you cannot take any virus known in nature (like Ratg-13 for example) and "cook" it for long enough or in any specific way to make it look like SARS-CoV-2. Military lab can do it. Virus can be cooked long enough in hosts with depressed immune system. Soviet Union did such experiments before.

jeduehr 6y ago

1.3. you cannot take any virus known in nature (like Ratg-13 for example) and "cook" it for long enough or in any specific way to make it look like SARS-CoV-2. You can't do it in the time we've been able to handle viruses like this or modify them in the ways we can. You'd have needed to start a few decades ago, have tools that we've only just invented, and a huge number of willing test subjects. I cover this in extreme detail in the post I linked under Q2 and Q3. https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/-/fqpbt6o https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/-/fqpbt6o https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/-/fqpc7c8 https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/-/fqpc7c8 One of the most compelling pieces of evidence is the synonymous/nonsynonomous ratio of the genome and it's mosaic mutations. That's not something you can just cook up over night, it takes many millions of viral generations which require A) diverse hosts (like you find in a natural ecosystem), B) many millions of hosts, like you find in nature, and C) decades of time. The chinese virology labs don't have the resources, time, or space to do something like that. And maybe it would be kind of possible today with CRISPR and many thousands of oligonucleotides printed off of a desktop printer, but that technology hasn't existed for more than a few years. The timelines just don't add up.

loveistheanswer 6y ago
Thank you for the detailed response. As a layperson, these specifics are over my head. Assuming everything you say is true, that still would not rule out a lab leak of a virus collected from nature, would it? >You can't do it in the time we've been able to handle viruses like this or modify them in the ways we can. You'd have needed to start a few decades ago, have tools that we've only just invented, and a huge number of willing test subjects. Does this imply that covid19 has been circulating among humans for a very long time?
- jeduehr 6y ago
  Yes, a lab leak of a virus collected from nature is the most plausible of these lab theories. But the epidemiological evidence points to covid-19 originating outside wuhan entirely, that's why I find that theory less likely, among other reasons. See here: https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/-/fqpcfs2 https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/-/fqpcfs2 Also if they had collected it in nature, it would have been in their freezers, or likely that people involved in that research would have been patient zero etc. See here: https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/-/fqpcf33 https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/-/fqpcf33 https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/-/fqpce2z https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/-/fqpce2z Wuhan institute of virology also aren't the labs I'm worried about. They were built and designed by very reputable people in the virology community. Not saying you should trust them, but at least recognize that the people who are most qualified to distrust them think it's unlikely. See here: https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/-/fqpccr1 https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/-/fqpccr1 >Does this imply covid-19 has been circulating in humans a long time? No, it implies it was relatively stable passing amongst several species of bats (and other related mammals) before a single or a few crossover events into humans recently. It's behaving exactly like we would expect a zoonotic transmission to behave. It's not very well adapted to bats, it's not very well adapted to humans. It's sort of "promiscuous" likely because it has infected several different species over several decades before arriving in humans.
  - drran 6y ago
    So, we have two patients with SARS-CoV-2 in France[0] and China[1] on November 17, and the whole epidemic in Russia[2]. Hmm. [0]: https://www.francetvinfo.fr/sante/maladie/coronavirus/coronavirus-un-premier-cas-de-covid-19-remontant-au-2-decembre-confirme-en-alsace_3952985.html https://www.francetvinfo.fr/sante/maladie/coronavirus/corona... [1]: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3074991/coronavirus-chinas-first-confirmed-covid-19-case-traced-back https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3074991/coro... [2]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nMh11FtfaP0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nMh11FtfaP0
  - natch 6y ago
AndrewBissell 6y ago
> and a huge number of willing test subjects Who said the test subjects have to be willing? That's never stopped our government before.
- jeduehr 6y ago
  Okay they at least need to stay quiet, sit in their warehouse of cages, and no journalists need to find out about it. And there can't be any leaks from anyone involved suddenly gaining a deathbed conscience. The conspiracy becomes so immense it's absurd the many thousands of people who would have to keep quiet.
  - natch 6y ago
    You have absolutely no clue whatsoever about China.
  - temp8964 6y ago
    > The conspiracy becomes so immense it's absurd the many thousands of people who would have to keep quiet. This really indicates you have idea about China. The CCP can easily make millions and tens of millions not only quiet, but enthusiastically deny what happened to them.
    - whydoibother 6y ago
      Fuck off with this racist garbage.
    - DiogenesKynikos 6y ago
      The existence of the outbreak in Wuhan leaked within 72 hours of the first suspicious patient test results coming back. China is not the black box many Americans and Europeans think it is.
      - temp8964 6y ago
        That's only because at the time the central government didn't know what's happening. After that, you don't even know how many patients died. Check China's death count to see how unreal it is. And not a single doctor in the whole country dear to speak out.
abecedarius 6y ago
WIV had many unpublished coronavirus samples, and took their database offline in fall 2019. RaTG13 is just the least distant relative to SARS-CoV-2 that they did publish.
natch 6y ago
> you cannot take any virus known in nature That is such a straw man. I seriously doubt anyone, much less a signatory to the recent open letter (many with experience and knowledge far beyond yours) would have claimed they can take ANY virus and transform it to ANY OTHER virus. Your green handle just lost any respect I might have extended to it.
- mushishi 6y ago
  I feel their intention was to say that there is no known virus in nature that could be transformed to specifically SARS-CoV-2?
  - jeduehr 6y ago
    yeah, not in the time frame available or with the tools available. It would either have to be some hidden virus that they all lied about, or somehow an unknown contaminant in their samples that then also disappeared when they looked. All new assumptions that make this theory less likely.
    - natch 6y ago
      Or, rather than starting with ANY virus as in your straw man, the lab started with a strain of the actual virus, from nature, and then leaked it with or without changes. Note the “or without” part. I don’t see how you rule this out.
drran 6y ago
> 1.3. you cannot take any virus known in nature (like Ratg-13 for example) and "cook" it for long enough or in any specific way to make it look like SARS-CoV-2. Military lab can do it. Virus can be cooked long enough in hosts with depressed immune system. Soviet Union did such experiments before.