5 ms·

The problem is evidence. What is the evidence? As far as I can tell, what we have is either circumstantial (for example, the location of the first detected ca

The problem is evidence. What is the evidence? As far as I can tell, what we have is either circumstantial (for example, the location of the first detected cases) or outright hunches (the virus seems to be more adaptive than expected for normal corona viruses). Compare that to what we know: it's a SARS variant, in a place where SARS outbreaks have already occurred in the past, with DNA showing it came from pangolins, in a place where pangolins are caught, sold, and eaten by people.

tacitusarc 6y ago
It originated in a city with a research lab that was criticized for bad safety practices. That lab performed gain of function research on coronaviruses, and the strangest element of covid-19 is the spike protein furin site, which enables the infectivity in humans, and is not present in other coronaviruses. Or we can take the Bayesian approach, and look at the base rate of novel pathogens coming out of China over the past 70 years and determine how many were lab leaks versus not, and realize the majority were lab leaks. This doesn't mean it for sure was a lab leak, but it does mean it should be investigated, which is all any one reasonable has been saying for the past year anyway.
EMM_386 6y ago
> The problem is evidence. What is the evidence? I'd wager our intelligence services have it. That's why many who has seen classified information is sticking with the lab theory. Forget the politics for a minute with regards to people like Trump, Pompeo, Redfield (CDC) ... they have seen information we don't have access to. How can we say they're wrong on this without seeing the same classified information?
- dragonwriter 6y ago
  > That's why everyone who has seen classified information is sticking with the lab theory. That’s false. > Trump, Pompeo, Redfield (CDC) ... forget the politics, but they have seen information we don't have access to. Yes, one would need to forget the politics in order to overlook how selective a misrepresentation this is of “everyone who has seen classified information”, so its clear why you ask us to do that.
  - EMM_386 6y ago
    I changed "every" to "many", I wasn't intending to paint that with a broad brush. But they are making public statements with access to information that we don't have. So who's to say they are wrong? Personally I am no fan of Trump but on this particular subject I can't say he's right or wrong, and he has more information than I do on it.
    - dragonwriter 6y ago
      > But they are making public statements with access to information that we don't have. So who's to say they are wrong? Anyone with any experience with any public statements any of them have made that have subsequently been subject to scrutiny on virtually any topic is in a position to say that them saying something based on nondisclosed evidence on an issue that aligns with factional/partisan propaganda interests has, at best, zero evidentiary value. (In Trump’s case specifically, his habit of stating falsehoods even when it doesn’t particularly help his case might lead one to conclude it has actually negative evidentiary value.)
- 8note 6y ago
  Trump's administration couldn't keep secrets, so somebody would have blabbed if there was classified evidence. Trump himself would give the evidence to boost his own ego on fox and friends
ChemSpider 6y ago
> in a place where SARS outbreaks have already occurred in the past, Not correct. All previous SARS outbreaks were in a totally different places (~1000 km away). Prof. Shi (石正丽, the head of the Wuhan virus lab) herself said in her March 2020 interview that she was totally surprised of a SARS outbreak in Wuhan. It is not a location where it was expected.
EMM_386 6y ago
There is a lot of evidence. The lab in question was specifically warned about by the US State Department for studying coronaviruses that affect human ACE-2. I mentioned this in another comment, but here's the 2018 State Department warning. Please note part (6) about human ACE2 coroniavirus: https://www.washingtonpost.com/context/read-the-state-department-cable-that-launched-claims-that-coronavirus-escaped-from-chinese-lab/2b80aef2-f728-4c36-8875-3bf6aae1d272/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/context/read-the-state-depart... > with DNA showing it came from pangolins, in a place where pangolins This is false. You can read the science here (note the "receptor binding studies of reconstituted RaTG13 showed that it does not bind to pangolin ACE2." https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/bies.202000240 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/bies.2020002...

tacitusarc 6y ago

It originated in a city with a research lab that was criticized for bad safety practices. That lab performed gain of function research on coronaviruses, and the strangest element of covid-19 is the spike protein furin site, which enables the infectivity in humans, and is not present in other coronaviruses. Or we can take the Bayesian approach, and look at the base rate of novel pathogens coming out of China over the past 70 years and determine how many were lab leaks versus not, and realize the majority were lab leaks. This doesn't mean it for sure was a lab leak, but it does mean it should be investigated, which is all any one reasonable has been saying for the past year anyway.

EMM_386 6y ago

> The problem is evidence. What is the evidence? I'd wager our intelligence services have it. That's why many who has seen classified information is sticking with the lab theory. Forget the politics for a minute with regards to people like Trump, Pompeo, Redfield (CDC) ... they have seen information we don't have access to. How can we say they're wrong on this without seeing the same classified information?

dragonwriter 6y ago
> That's why everyone who has seen classified information is sticking with the lab theory. That’s false. > Trump, Pompeo, Redfield (CDC) ... forget the politics, but they have seen information we don't have access to. Yes, one would need to forget the politics in order to overlook how selective a misrepresentation this is of “everyone who has seen classified information”, so its clear why you ask us to do that.
- EMM_386 6y ago
  I changed "every" to "many", I wasn't intending to paint that with a broad brush. But they are making public statements with access to information that we don't have. So who's to say they are wrong? Personally I am no fan of Trump but on this particular subject I can't say he's right or wrong, and he has more information than I do on it.
  - dragonwriter 6y ago
    > But they are making public statements with access to information that we don't have. So who's to say they are wrong? Anyone with any experience with any public statements any of them have made that have subsequently been subject to scrutiny on virtually any topic is in a position to say that them saying something based on nondisclosed evidence on an issue that aligns with factional/partisan propaganda interests has, at best, zero evidentiary value. (In Trump’s case specifically, his habit of stating falsehoods even when it doesn’t particularly help his case might lead one to conclude it has actually negative evidentiary value.)
8note 6y ago
Trump's administration couldn't keep secrets, so somebody would have blabbed if there was classified evidence. Trump himself would give the evidence to boost his own ego on fox and friends

ChemSpider 6y ago

> in a place where SARS outbreaks have already occurred in the past, Not correct. All previous SARS outbreaks were in a totally different places (~1000 km away). Prof. Shi (石正丽, the head of the Wuhan virus lab) herself said in her March 2020 interview that she was totally surprised of a SARS outbreak in Wuhan. It is not a location where it was expected.

EMM_386 6y ago

There is a lot of evidence. The lab in question was specifically warned about by the US State Department for studying coronaviruses that affect human ACE-2. I mentioned this in another comment, but here's the 2018 State Department warning. Please note part (6) about human ACE2 coroniavirus: https://www.washingtonpost.com/context/read-the-state-department-cable-that-launched-claims-that-coronavirus-escaped-from-chinese-lab/2b80aef2-f728-4c36-8875-3bf6aae1d272/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/context/read-the-state-depart... > with DNA showing it came from pangolins, in a place where pangolins This is false. You can read the science here (note the "receptor binding studies of reconstituted RaTG13 showed that it does not bind to pangolin ACE2." https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/bies.202000240 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/bies.2020002...