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Well researched and interesting data from Dalio, as always. However, I think most of his conclusions and recommendations are both vague and overly complex. Yes
by lend000 6y ago
Well researched and interesting data from Dalio, as always. However, I think most of his conclusions and recommendations are both vague and overly complex.
Yes, public education is not great in the United States. But it never was -- the world just got more complex.
Whereas a grade school dropout could find intuitive work that contributed to the economy even just 60 years ago, and could grow their wealth intuitively (you know, saving money in a bank or under a mattress), there are a couple of things that changed all that.
1. Automation. I imagine there is an upper limit on how many people can work in the service industry, which is one of the last holdouts of unskilled labor against automation.
2. Inflation. The CPI weights are garbage. When 2 trillion dollars are injected into stocks and bonds, inflating both of the markets (stonks higher and interest rates lower), the person who has no access to credit and no significant amount of their net worth in stocks is the one who is left behind. Obviously (or maybe not, to inflation denialists), this exacerbates wealth inequality. The richer you are, the higher percentage your net worth will grow from this policy, on average.
This has been going on since the end of Bretton Woods, to a less dramatic degree than the COVID stimulus (more often focused on interest rate manipulation). This is also when the income inequality trend takes off. There are countless other correlated data plots, like some of the ones included by Dalio, and surely, there are multiple factors. However, the causality for inflation is the most direct and measurable.
One more thing: taxes.
In 1913, the first federal income tax had about the same maximum tax bracket that we have in 2020: $500,000. That was closer to $15 million back then. There's your problem. Hardly anyone talks about how broken these tax brackets are, and instead clamor for wealth taxes and closing those elusive loopholes by adding even more complexity to the tax code, because that always works. The top 10 wealthiest Americans are almost all self-made who didn't have to do anything fancy on their taxes to get to where they are -- just pay the highest capital gains rate on billions which happens to be significantly less than the rate on someone making 10,000 times less. If your representative is complaining about tax reform and not mentioning the brackets, they either don't want to fix the problem or are too clueless to deserve your vote.