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>Most of these sanctions don't really work either. China will get what it wants some other way. The US will get to look like it acted. Everyone will be happy...

>Most of these sanctions don't really work either. China will get what it wants some other way. The US will get to look like it acted. Everyone will be happy... What are you basing this on?

LatteLazy 6y ago
So, sanctions like these started in 2015 [0]. That was when the Chinese first topped the global super computer league (and that's for public super computers so presumably they'd been leading in private for a while?). The US banned exports to 4 Chinese companies that made the machines. So other companies spring up to fill the gap. This is problem 1: it takes very little time to setup a company, so sanctioning one is sort of pointless. You sanction PLA_Supplier1 LLC? Good thing PLA_Supplier1 LLC is interested in ordering the same kit! The result was a roughly yearly round of sanctions. Every year's new list of names is a list of the companies that bypassed the last year's sanctions... There is also problem 2: back in 2015 the computers used Intel parts but increasingly the Chinese are designing their own. They're not there yet, but they're making progress. TSMC still do most of the manufacture. So the question is: how long till Chinese hackers steal the latest designs or Chinese engineers reverse engineer the parts they buy on the grey market? AND how long until China sets up a TSMC competitor? I'm something of a hawk on China. I'm out on a ledge but here I am. I'd like to see real action on them for a long list of reasons. But before we can have real action, we need to drop the pretend action. Trump (what a turd) loved pretend action. Maybe Biden will be different? But this isn't that imho. Source on the original tariffs: [0] https://www.economist.com/business/2019/06/29/an-american-ban-hits-chinas-supercomputer-industry https://www.economist.com/business/2019/06/29/an-american-ba...
- throwaway6734 6y ago
  Thanks! I was under the impression (mostly due to this podcast that talks about China's semiconductor history: https://chinatalkshow.libsyn.com/chinas-chip-dreams https://chinatalkshow.libsyn.com/chinas-chip-dreams) that all of the big software companies that make chip tooling are outside of China and that a ban would be possible, but politically difficult. > AND how long until China sets up a TSMC competitor? From that same podcast it seems as though they've been trying for decades and have so far unable to do so and recent attempts(https://chinatalk.substack.com/p/billion-dollar-heist-how-scammers https://chinatalk.substack.com/p/billion-dollar-heist-how-sc...) have ended in massive fraud.
- redis_mlc 6y ago
  > Trump (what a turd) loved pretend action. I understand that HN is leftist, but the above is absolute drivel. Trump was the first US President in 60 years to call out the CCP for what it is, a genocidal, totalitarian government. In other words, he was smart and courageous enough to do things that nobody else could. Regarding Trump's actions, the steps he took against the CCP were both comprehensive and logical - US China watchers were amazed, and the CCP panicked after each Trump speech and had emergency meetings. Trump accomplished the above while being called a racist at every turn, and being undermined by Wall Street and tech giants. Trump wasn't a turd - he was our best President in 75 years, since Roosevelt. The CCP has been at war with the US since Mao in the 1950s. All those weapons that China has built are pointed at the US, so they are not our friend. Now we have an administration that has been bought by the CCP (Biden's family, Biden's Chief of Staff ... it goes on and on) while we are at war with them. The DNC and White House staff are riddled with lobbyists for China - it's so bad that Biden wants to offer amnesty for his own administration. The executive order rollbacks he's done have hurt Trump's CCP policy, but not fatally. Luckily Europe has stepped up to some extent. When your enemy approves of your new leader, you know you have deep problems.
- throwaway4good 6y ago
  SMIC has been around for years and at one point it look like it would overtake TSMC but TSMC managed to stay ahead helped by a US lawsuit and US sanctions. The problem is that on free market it is more attractive for a Chinese chip designer to go for TSMC due to their maturity and reliability. Obviously the broadening US sanctions changes that and effectively acts as a massive boost of the domestic fab industry.

>Most of these sanctions don't really work either. China will get what it wants some other way. The US will get to look like it acted. Everyone will be happy... What are you basing this on?

LatteLazy 6y ago

So, sanctions like these started in 2015 [0]. That was when the Chinese first topped the global super computer league (and that's for public super computers so presumably they'd been leading in private for a while?). The US banned exports to 4 Chinese companies that made the machines. So other companies spring up to fill the gap. This is problem 1: it takes very little time to setup a company, so sanctioning one is sort of pointless. You sanction PLA_Supplier1 LLC? Good thing PLA_Supplier1 LLC is interested in ordering the same kit! The result was a roughly yearly round of sanctions. Every year's new list of names is a list of the companies that bypassed the last year's sanctions... There is also problem 2: back in 2015 the computers used Intel parts but increasingly the Chinese are designing their own. They're not there yet, but they're making progress. TSMC still do most of the manufacture. So the question is: how long till Chinese hackers steal the latest designs or Chinese engineers reverse engineer the parts they buy on the grey market? AND how long until China sets up a TSMC competitor? I'm something of a hawk on China. I'm out on a ledge but here I am. I'd like to see real action on them for a long list of reasons. But before we can have real action, we need to drop the pretend action. Trump (what a turd) loved pretend action. Maybe Biden will be different? But this isn't that imho. Source on the original tariffs: [0] https://www.economist.com/business/2019/06/29/an-american-ban-hits-chinas-supercomputer-industry https://www.economist.com/business/2019/06/29/an-american-ba...

throwaway6734 6y ago
Thanks! I was under the impression (mostly due to this podcast that talks about China's semiconductor history: https://chinatalkshow.libsyn.com/chinas-chip-dreams https://chinatalkshow.libsyn.com/chinas-chip-dreams) that all of the big software companies that make chip tooling are outside of China and that a ban would be possible, but politically difficult. > AND how long until China sets up a TSMC competitor? From that same podcast it seems as though they've been trying for decades and have so far unable to do so and recent attempts(https://chinatalk.substack.com/p/billion-dollar-heist-how-scammers https://chinatalk.substack.com/p/billion-dollar-heist-how-sc...) have ended in massive fraud.
redis_mlc 6y ago
> Trump (what a turd) loved pretend action. I understand that HN is leftist, but the above is absolute drivel. Trump was the first US President in 60 years to call out the CCP for what it is, a genocidal, totalitarian government. In other words, he was smart and courageous enough to do things that nobody else could. Regarding Trump's actions, the steps he took against the CCP were both comprehensive and logical - US China watchers were amazed, and the CCP panicked after each Trump speech and had emergency meetings. Trump accomplished the above while being called a racist at every turn, and being undermined by Wall Street and tech giants. Trump wasn't a turd - he was our best President in 75 years, since Roosevelt. The CCP has been at war with the US since Mao in the 1950s. All those weapons that China has built are pointed at the US, so they are not our friend. Now we have an administration that has been bought by the CCP (Biden's family, Biden's Chief of Staff ... it goes on and on) while we are at war with them. The DNC and White House staff are riddled with lobbyists for China - it's so bad that Biden wants to offer amnesty for his own administration. The executive order rollbacks he's done have hurt Trump's CCP policy, but not fatally. Luckily Europe has stepped up to some extent. When your enemy approves of your new leader, you know you have deep problems.
throwaway4good 6y ago
SMIC has been around for years and at one point it look like it would overtake TSMC but TSMC managed to stay ahead helped by a US lawsuit and US sanctions. The problem is that on free market it is more attractive for a Chinese chip designer to go for TSMC due to their maturity and reliability. Obviously the broadening US sanctions changes that and effectively acts as a massive boost of the domestic fab industry.