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I'm sympathetic to the view that China is a long term threat to Democracy. Their leadership is authoritarian and most people underestimate the monopoly that th

I'm sympathetic to the view that China is a long term threat to Democracy. Their leadership is authoritarian and most people underestimate the monopoly that the CPC has over China's economy. China's leader is not quite, but very close to an absolute despot. He does not at this time have any credible opposition or balancing centers of power. The only thing constraining Xi Xinping from going the route of Putin or Kim is his own self control. That's not a long term stable situation. Having said all that, half-measures to contain China are pointless. We either should have free trade with China, or almost no trade with China. Our tech controls are highly porous. There is constant interchange in expertise and high tech goods. China is only about 5 to 10 years behind the West on any given technology that is commercially available. The only stuff they lag further behind on is stuff that is completely classified. And that stuff is a very small list of things. Arguably, China is already exceeding America's capabilities in many next generation military technologies like drones and cyberwarfare. The West has to make a decision ... either we go the free trade route and hope domestic competition takes down Xi Xinping ... or we withdraw completely from China and disengage as much as possible ... cold war style.

mc32 6y ago
Hmmm and a reversal of roles vis a vis Russia and China. For it to work the EU, US, India and the RF would have to form a block to counteract China like Nixon and successors did with China and the precursor to the EU to counteract the then USSR.
dzonga 6y ago
Xi's point is - democracy isn't necessary for success. XiJinPing's thought is literally based on the idea that the future is a huge idealogical battle between socialism (socialism with chinese characteristics) and capitalism (corporatism). personal freedoms be damned till china gains it's previous position in the world. he doesn't want China to end up like the soviet union. once you read his manifesto you'll see the chinese singular goal. by the time, the west decides to disengage with china. china would be self sufficient and be able to engage with other countries.
- 0xFFC 6y ago
  Very interesting comment. Can you elaborate a little bit more about Xi's ideas? And when would decoupling achieved? By that China is self sufficient?
  - dzonga 6y ago
    All I did was read a translation[0] of his speech. But one thing that stood out was the singular goal - of making that reality happen. [0]: https://palladiummag.com/2019/05/31/xi-jinping-in-translation-chinas-guiding-ideology/ https://palladiummag.com/2019/05/31/xi-jinping-in-translatio...
- reducesuffering 6y ago
  Where can you read Xi's manifesto? I can't find it from cursory searching.
  - dzonga 6y ago
    https://palladiummag.com/2019/05/31/xi-jinping-in-translation-chinas-guiding-ideology/ https://palladiummag.com/2019/05/31/xi-jinping-in-translatio...
- randomopining 6y ago
  Democracy isn't necessary for success, until it is. Xi's whole idea is that you have a highly efficient government that takes care of their people for the most part. That's great, and I would agree it's better... until the unaccountable people in power become corrupt or inept. Then it's terrible.
- TheMagicHorsey 6y ago
  Great so long as Xi is a benevolent father. As soon as he becomes abusive you will have no outlet for protest or change of control. Nice system while it works. And when it breaks untold misery. Democracy is inefficient crap for the most part, but it has a safety valve for the worst times. China may even have 20, 30, 100 years of prosperity with such a system ... then it will inevitably fall on dark times.
bumbada 6y ago
>The only thing constraining Xi Xinping from going the route of Putin or Kim is his own self control. I believe you have been brainwashed by American Media if you believe Putin is on par with Kim Jong-il. There is hysteria in US media because Putin defends the interest of his own country against the interest of others like the US. It seems pretty unreasonable for me to expect Putin to abandon Sevastopol and access to the black Sea,or the Mediterranean in Syria, but that is exactly what US media wanted from Putin. They wanted a Russian leader to follow US' interest. If the Russian president were to do that, he would be loved in the US, and hated inside Russia, while the opposite happens. BTW, China is a very complex thing, it is almost a continent in size, lots of people and it is rotten inside in many levels. The population is old and the system extremely corrupt in levels you can not understand in the West. >China is only about 5 to 10 years behind the West on any given technology that is commercially available. I don't think so.

mc32 6y ago

Hmmm and a reversal of roles vis a vis Russia and China. For it to work the EU, US, India and the RF would have to form a block to counteract China like Nixon and successors did with China and the precursor to the EU to counteract the then USSR.

dzonga 6y ago

Xi's point is - democracy isn't necessary for success. XiJinPing's thought is literally based on the idea that the future is a huge idealogical battle between socialism (socialism with chinese characteristics) and capitalism (corporatism). personal freedoms be damned till china gains it's previous position in the world. he doesn't want China to end up like the soviet union. once you read his manifesto you'll see the chinese singular goal. by the time, the west decides to disengage with china. china would be self sufficient and be able to engage with other countries.

0xFFC 6y ago
Very interesting comment. Can you elaborate a little bit more about Xi's ideas? And when would decoupling achieved? By that China is self sufficient?
- dzonga 6y ago
  All I did was read a translation[0] of his speech. But one thing that stood out was the singular goal - of making that reality happen. [0]: https://palladiummag.com/2019/05/31/xi-jinping-in-translation-chinas-guiding-ideology/ https://palladiummag.com/2019/05/31/xi-jinping-in-translatio...
reducesuffering 6y ago
Where can you read Xi's manifesto? I can't find it from cursory searching.
- dzonga 6y ago
  https://palladiummag.com/2019/05/31/xi-jinping-in-translation-chinas-guiding-ideology/ https://palladiummag.com/2019/05/31/xi-jinping-in-translatio...
randomopining 6y ago
Democracy isn't necessary for success, until it is. Xi's whole idea is that you have a highly efficient government that takes care of their people for the most part. That's great, and I would agree it's better... until the unaccountable people in power become corrupt or inept. Then it's terrible.
TheMagicHorsey 6y ago
Great so long as Xi is a benevolent father. As soon as he becomes abusive you will have no outlet for protest or change of control. Nice system while it works. And when it breaks untold misery. Democracy is inefficient crap for the most part, but it has a safety valve for the worst times. China may even have 20, 30, 100 years of prosperity with such a system ... then it will inevitably fall on dark times.

bumbada 6y ago

>The only thing constraining Xi Xinping from going the route of Putin or Kim is his own self control. I believe you have been brainwashed by American Media if you believe Putin is on par with Kim Jong-il. There is hysteria in US media because Putin defends the interest of his own country against the interest of others like the US. It seems pretty unreasonable for me to expect Putin to abandon Sevastopol and access to the black Sea,or the Mediterranean in Syria, but that is exactly what US media wanted from Putin. They wanted a Russian leader to follow US' interest. If the Russian president were to do that, he would be loved in the US, and hated inside Russia, while the opposite happens. BTW, China is a very complex thing, it is almost a continent in size, lots of people and it is rotten inside in many levels. The population is old and the system extremely corrupt in levels you can not understand in the West. >China is only about 5 to 10 years behind the West on any given technology that is commercially available. I don't think so.