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Is there a mathematical definition for herd immunity? Or is it a bit more hand waving since the context changes so much for each scenario?
by syntaxing 6y ago
Is there a mathematical definition for herd immunity? Or is it a bit more hand waving since the context changes so much for each scenario?
- js2 6y ago> The critical value, or [herd immunity] threshold, in a given population, is the point where the disease reaches an endemic steady state, which means that the infection level is neither growing nor declining exponentially. This threshold can be calculated... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity#Theoretical_basis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity#Theoretical_basi... But, it depends on a lot of real world factors: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02948-4 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02948-4
- cactus2093 6y agoMathematical and hand wavy are not necessarily opposites, often there is a lot of hand waving involved in the assumptions that reduce the real world conditions to the required conditions for the mathematical formula and that is certainly true when it comes to herd immunity. In particular treating R0 as a constant in the basic herd immunity equation is a huge leap to make.