> your GP claimed that 4 sigmas means "it'll probably pan out as being real" No they didn't; they claimed that 4 sigmas means it will probably turn out to be s

> your GP claimed that 4 sigmas means "it'll probably pan out as being real" No they didn't; they claimed that 4 sigmas means it will probably turn out to be something other than statistical noise. They made no claims about "it's real" versus "it's a systematic, non-statistical error". See also https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php/2440 https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php/2440