4 ms·
> a measurement 1 sigma from the prediction would mean that there is roughly a 84% chance that the measurement represented a deviation from the prediction and a
by canjobear 6y ago
> a measurement 1 sigma from the prediction would mean that there is roughly a 84% chance that the measurement represented a deviation from the prediction and a 16% chance that it was just a statistical anomaly.
No, this is a p-value misinterpretation. Sigma has to do with the probability that, if the null hypothesis were true, the observed data would be generated. It does not reflect the probability that any hypothesis is true given the data.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- nyc640 6y agoHm, I was not being particularly precise with my language because I was trying to make my explanation easily digestible, but please correct me if I'm wrong. The null hypothesis is that there are no new particles or physics and the Standard Model predicts the magnetic charge of a muon. A 4.2 sigma result means that given this null hypothesis prediction, the chances that we would have observed the given data is ~0.0013% (chance this was a statistical anomaly). Since this is a vanishingly small chance (assuming no experimental errors), we can reasonably reject the hypothesis that the Standard Model wholly predicts the charge of a muon.