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I don't know about other countries but here in the UK imposing a lockdown seems to result in an eventual reduction of numbers of lifting of lockdowns results in

I don't know about other countries but here in the UK imposing a lockdown seems to result in an eventual reduction of numbers of lifting of lockdowns results in them growing again - even to the point where a seemingly inevitable "third wave" is being predicted for later this year even with the success of the vaccination program here. Indeed, the main criticism of the government(s) here is usually that lockdowns weren't introduced soon enough and lifted too early.

argvargc 6y ago
Interesting, but given it contradicts volumes of research suggests that if based on real data (rather than the hand-waving it sounds like), it's probably anomaly.
HPsquared 6y ago
Post hoc ergo propter hoc. Cases going down after a lockdown (which happens when cases go up) doesn't imply the lockdown actually caused the cases to go back down. It's a classic mistake in medicine - "patient got better after treatment, therefore the treatment is effective" and the reason we have double blind trials.
- arethuza 6y ago
  So what do you suggest is causing the fairly dramatic reduction in cases when we have lockdowns and them rising again when lockdowns lifted (at they were last summer and at Xmas)?
  - argvargc 6y ago
    While everyone is staying at home and distancing, fewer people are being tested, resulting in fewer cases.
    - arethuza 6y ago
      I don't see any sign of that in the UK statistics: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ And what explains the deaths?
      - HPsquared 6y ago
        Ok, I looked a bit closer at the cases and the lockdown dates [0], there does seem to have been a repeating pattern there of case numbers changing about 14 days after a lockdown is enacted/lifted. With the repeating pattern, I'm more convinced it did have an effect on the case numbers at least. I still think the cost: benefit is way unfavorable, though. We'll have a better picture in years to come once the dust has settled. [0] https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/timeline-lockdown-web.pdf https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/file...
        arethuza 6y ago
        Absolutely - I have no idea whether lockdowns were the best possible approach and they have been incredibly expensive and disruptive in all kinds of ways - but it did seem odd to me to argue that they don't work. It will definitely be interesting to see, once this is all done, which approaches worked the best and why there were such huge variations between different countries.

argvargc 6y ago

Interesting, but given it contradicts volumes of research suggests that if based on real data (rather than the hand-waving it sounds like), it's probably anomaly.

HPsquared 6y ago

Post hoc ergo propter hoc. Cases going down after a lockdown (which happens when cases go up) doesn't imply the lockdown actually caused the cases to go back down. It's a classic mistake in medicine - "patient got better after treatment, therefore the treatment is effective" and the reason we have double blind trials.

arethuza 6y ago
So what do you suggest is causing the fairly dramatic reduction in cases when we have lockdowns and them rising again when lockdowns lifted (at they were last summer and at Xmas)?
- argvargc 6y ago
  While everyone is staying at home and distancing, fewer people are being tested, resulting in fewer cases.
  - arethuza 6y ago
    I don't see any sign of that in the UK statistics: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ And what explains the deaths?
    - HPsquared 6y ago
      Ok, I looked a bit closer at the cases and the lockdown dates [0], there does seem to have been a repeating pattern there of case numbers changing about 14 days after a lockdown is enacted/lifted. With the repeating pattern, I'm more convinced it did have an effect on the case numbers at least. I still think the cost: benefit is way unfavorable, though. We'll have a better picture in years to come once the dust has settled. [0] https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/timeline-lockdown-web.pdf https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/file...
      - arethuza 6y ago
        Absolutely - I have no idea whether lockdowns were the best possible approach and they have been incredibly expensive and disruptive in all kinds of ways - but it did seem odd to me to argue that they don't work. It will definitely be interesting to see, once this is all done, which approaches worked the best and why there were such huge variations between different countries.