6 ms·
What that list indicates, along with a huge amount of literature about the subject [0], is that arguments for lockdowns likely have zero validity. Certainly, w
by argvargc 6y ago
What that list indicates, along with a huge amount of literature about the subject [0], is that arguments for lockdowns likely have zero validity.
Certainly, with Sweden faring much better than other countries that employed far more restrictive measures suggests that the virus doesn't care about such measures. Economies, livelihoods, rights, and those waiting for treatments for other things were all harmed unnecessarily.
At best this has all been a giant, failed experiment. At worst it's the predictable result of panic and listening to self-appointed "authorities" who happen to be able to reach large audiences instantly, instead of lesser-known actual experts without such privilege, and who therefore take longer to be heard.
Doing what is ordinarily done in pandemics - isolating only those at risk until cures are found, would obviously have saved more lives and resulted in almost no disruption nor any trillions in wasted money.
[0] - 32 studies: https://www.aier.org/article/lockdowns-do-not-control-the-coronavirus-the-evidence/ https://www.aier.org/article/lockdowns-do-not-control-the-co...
- arethuza 6y agoI don't know about other countries but here in the UK imposing a lockdown seems to result in an eventual reduction of numbers of lifting of lockdowns results in them growing again - even to the point where a seemingly inevitable "third wave" is being predicted for later this year even with the success of the vaccination program here. Indeed, the main criticism of the government(s) here is usually that lockdowns weren't introduced soon enough and lifted too early.
- argvargc 6y agoInteresting, but given it contradicts volumes of research suggests that if based on real data (rather than the hand-waving it sounds like), it's probably anomaly.
- HPsquared 6y agoPost hoc ergo propter hoc. Cases going down after a lockdown (which happens when cases go up) doesn't imply the lockdown actually caused the cases to go back down. It's a classic mistake in medicine - "patient got better after treatment, therefore the treatment is effective" and the reason we have double blind trials.
- arethuza 6y agoSo what do you suggest is causing the fairly dramatic reduction in cases when we have lockdowns and them rising again when lockdowns lifted (at they were last summer and at Xmas)?
- argvargc 6y agoWhile everyone is staying at home and distancing, fewer people are being tested, resulting in fewer cases.
- arethuza 6y agoI don't see any sign of that in the UK statistics: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ And what explains the deaths?
- HPsquared 6y agoOk, I looked a bit closer at the cases and the lockdown dates [0], there does seem to have been a repeating pattern there of case numbers changing about 14 days after a lockdown is enacted/lifted. With the repeating pattern, I'm more convinced it did have an effect on the case numbers at least. I still think the cost: benefit is way unfavorable, though. We'll have a better picture in years to come once the dust has settled. [0] https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/timeline-lockdown-web.pdf https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/file...
- arethuza 6y agoAbsolutely - I have no idea whether lockdowns were the best possible approach and they have been incredibly expensive and disruptive in all kinds of ways - but it did seem odd to me to argue that they don't work. It will definitely be interesting to see, once this is all done, which approaches worked the best and why there were such huge variations between different countries.
- nabla9 6y agoI never understood the strict lockdown measures in most countries. Maybe it's useful in very dense cities? In Finland the idea was don't mingle and meet people. Old people should avoid contact, but going outside is OK. When gyms were closed, all parks were full of people running and exercising. They just kept the distance. Even without a mask it's very hard to get viral dose that causes infection if you keep enough distance when outside.