5 ms·

Total deaths pM Belgium: 1,999 Total deaths pM Sweden: 1,399 Similar country size, but BE has had full lockdown, curfew, police fining.

hollerith 6y ago
What was your process for choosing Belgium from the countries that have had full lockdowns, etc?
- gerikson 6y ago
  I think it's a representative comparison.
  - arethuza 6y ago
    Sweden has a much lower population density than Belgium - 25 vs 383 per sq. km of land area. Belgium seems pretty small and crowded when compared to Sweden.
    - gerikson 6y ago
      Stockholm has a population density 5,200/sq km, while Brussels has 7,400/sq km (source: Wikipedia). Most deaths are in densely populated areas, because that's where people tend to live.
      - Uberphallus 6y ago
        Actually, while most infections happen in densely populated areas, most deaths don't. Healthcare access out of densely populated areas involves delays, transportation, sometimes airlifts or is just simply sub-par. Also densely populated areas tend to have younger population which is overall less likely to die. All of which shifts a significant part of the death rate towards sparsely populated areas. Death rate by population density is basically a shapeless scatterplot [0]. Even superdense micronations (Monaco, Singapore, Liechtenstein, etc) don't seem to have significantly high rates, with the notable exception of San Marino, which is still "just" at the level of Czechia. [0] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-19-death-rate-vs-population-density?yScale=linear https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-19-death-rate-vs-po...
        HPsquared 6y ago
        Raw population density (total population / total land area) is a meaningless statistic, as people are clustered together in cities and not evenly spaced around the countryside. The figure you want is population weighted density, which is the density where the "average citizen" lives.
        Uberphallus 6y ago
        Of course that's a naive analysis, but so was grandparent's. Actually that's why I mention Singapore, Monaco or Liechtenstein, all of their surface is inhabited, or their population concentrated around a single city, but their death rates aren't dissimilar from those of their surrounding countries.
barbazoo 6y ago
That's quite some cherry picking you're doing there. ... Total deaths pM Norway: 123 Total deaths pM Finland: 148 Total deaths pM Germany: 915 ... Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deat...
- gerikson 6y ago
  Why not include Japan? 71.9 deaths pM.
  - Uberphallus 6y ago
    Because Japanese people wear masks without being told.
- snakeboy 6y ago
  Both the EU average deaths pM and Sweden deaths pM are pretty similar, around 1300. I'm not sure why you consider Belgium cherry-picking but not Norway, Germany, and Finland. You could make an argument for Finland and Norway as more culturally similar (even if personally I find this logic suspect for explaining Covid outcomes), but I don't see how, between Germany and Belgium, one is obviously better than the other for comparison. It appears you chose a country that fits your narrative, and them, theirs.
  - barbazoo 6y ago
    > I'm not sure why you consider Belgium cherry-picking but not Norway, Germany, and Finland. > You could make an argument for Finland and Norway as more culturally similar Exactly that. Germany I simply chose because that's where I'm from originally. The data couldn't be more clear that's why I thought it wouldn't be necessary to list many more countries with a stricter Covid19 policy and a considerably lower death rate.
    - snakeboy 6y ago
      If we're just choosing our personal favorite countries, we can also discuss France, who is still in lockdown (albeit weakened) with ~1450 deaths pM. :) > The data couldn't be more clear I don't mean to be rude, so please take this as an honest, albeit blunt, response. No one who is honestly analyzing this situation is making such a strong statement. Be them epidemiologists, statisticians, or independent analysts. The only ones saying this are politicians whose job depend on proving that their strategy works. I would really encourage you to have a bit more humility at the complexity of this problem and the variables (and messy data) involved and the fact that we're still actively learning more every day about the effectiveness of different policy strategies.
scarmig 6y ago
Culturally, it makes more sense to compare to Norway and Denmark. I'm pretty sure those numbers look really different.
naturalauction 6y ago
Total deaths pM Norway: 123.41 Total deaths pM Denmark: 414.88 Total deaths pM Sweden: 1,399 Similar cultures, but Denmark and Norway implemented more strict lockdown measures. Two can play this game
mabbo 6y ago
The problem with comparing Belgium is that, by their own admission, they may be inflating numbers where other countries are deflating numbers. Belgium considered anyone that died with something that might be COVID-19, that death is in their stats. Meanwhile, other countries are saying anyone who has not been positively tested as having died with COVID-19 in their system did not die from the pandemic. But tests are fallible, and many people die of the after effects of COVID-19, after the virus has ravaged them but been dealt with. The true measure is going to be the death rate compared to the previous ten years. And even that has to be considered by numerous conflating variables.
- gerikson 6y ago
  Thanks, I did not know this.
- mekkkkkk 6y ago
  AFAIK this is the same attribution strategy that sweden uses. It has likewise been cited over here (sweden) as contributing to the comparitevely high numbers.
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hollerith 6y ago

What was your process for choosing Belgium from the countries that have had full lockdowns, etc?

gerikson 6y ago
I think it's a representative comparison.
- arethuza 6y ago
  Sweden has a much lower population density than Belgium - 25 vs 383 per sq. km of land area. Belgium seems pretty small and crowded when compared to Sweden.
  - gerikson 6y ago
    Stockholm has a population density 5,200/sq km, while Brussels has 7,400/sq km (source: Wikipedia). Most deaths are in densely populated areas, because that's where people tend to live.
    - Uberphallus 6y ago
      Actually, while most infections happen in densely populated areas, most deaths don't. Healthcare access out of densely populated areas involves delays, transportation, sometimes airlifts or is just simply sub-par. Also densely populated areas tend to have younger population which is overall less likely to die. All of which shifts a significant part of the death rate towards sparsely populated areas. Death rate by population density is basically a shapeless scatterplot [0]. Even superdense micronations (Monaco, Singapore, Liechtenstein, etc) don't seem to have significantly high rates, with the notable exception of San Marino, which is still "just" at the level of Czechia. [0] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-19-death-rate-vs-population-density?yScale=linear https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-19-death-rate-vs-po...
      - HPsquared 6y ago
        Raw population density (total population / total land area) is a meaningless statistic, as people are clustered together in cities and not evenly spaced around the countryside. The figure you want is population weighted density, which is the density where the "average citizen" lives.
        Uberphallus 6y ago
        Of course that's a naive analysis, but so was grandparent's. Actually that's why I mention Singapore, Monaco or Liechtenstein, all of their surface is inhabited, or their population concentrated around a single city, but their death rates aren't dissimilar from those of their surrounding countries.

barbazoo 6y ago

That's quite some cherry picking you're doing there. ... Total deaths pM Norway: 123 Total deaths pM Finland: 148 Total deaths pM Germany: 915 ... Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deat...

gerikson 6y ago
Why not include Japan? 71.9 deaths pM.
- Uberphallus 6y ago
  Because Japanese people wear masks without being told.
snakeboy 6y ago
Both the EU average deaths pM and Sweden deaths pM are pretty similar, around 1300. I'm not sure why you consider Belgium cherry-picking but not Norway, Germany, and Finland. You could make an argument for Finland and Norway as more culturally similar (even if personally I find this logic suspect for explaining Covid outcomes), but I don't see how, between Germany and Belgium, one is obviously better than the other for comparison. It appears you chose a country that fits your narrative, and them, theirs.
- barbazoo 6y ago
  > I'm not sure why you consider Belgium cherry-picking but not Norway, Germany, and Finland. > You could make an argument for Finland and Norway as more culturally similar Exactly that. Germany I simply chose because that's where I'm from originally. The data couldn't be more clear that's why I thought it wouldn't be necessary to list many more countries with a stricter Covid19 policy and a considerably lower death rate.
  - snakeboy 6y ago
    If we're just choosing our personal favorite countries, we can also discuss France, who is still in lockdown (albeit weakened) with ~1450 deaths pM. :) > The data couldn't be more clear I don't mean to be rude, so please take this as an honest, albeit blunt, response. No one who is honestly analyzing this situation is making such a strong statement. Be them epidemiologists, statisticians, or independent analysts. The only ones saying this are politicians whose job depend on proving that their strategy works. I would really encourage you to have a bit more humility at the complexity of this problem and the variables (and messy data) involved and the fact that we're still actively learning more every day about the effectiveness of different policy strategies.

scarmig 6y ago

Culturally, it makes more sense to compare to Norway and Denmark. I'm pretty sure those numbers look really different.

naturalauction 6y ago

Total deaths pM Norway: 123.41 Total deaths pM Denmark: 414.88 Total deaths pM Sweden: 1,399 Similar cultures, but Denmark and Norway implemented more strict lockdown measures. Two can play this game

mabbo 6y ago

The problem with comparing Belgium is that, by their own admission, they may be inflating numbers where other countries are deflating numbers. Belgium considered anyone that died with something that might be COVID-19, that death is in their stats. Meanwhile, other countries are saying anyone who has not been positively tested as having died with COVID-19 in their system did not die from the pandemic. But tests are fallible, and many people die of the after effects of COVID-19, after the virus has ravaged them but been dealt with. The true measure is going to be the death rate compared to the previous ten years. And even that has to be considered by numerous conflating variables.

gerikson 6y ago
Thanks, I did not know this.
mekkkkkk 6y ago
AFAIK this is the same attribution strategy that sweden uses. It has likewise been cited over here (sweden) as contributing to the comparitevely high numbers.

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