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In 1961 the Pentagon's own estimates gave the expected casualties at 600 million plus when it had ~20K weapons. In 1950 the US had ~2500 weapons so scaling that

In 1961 the Pentagon's own estimates gave the expected casualties at 600 million plus when it had ~20K weapons. In 1950 the US had ~2500 weapons so scaling that back proportionally still looks like 10s of millions dead. Edit: I suspect maximum lethality of the US stockpile would have been during the 1960s when they still used large numbers of very large and dirty weapons.

Retric 6y ago
1961 the US had ICBM’s and large numbers of vastly more powerful Hydrogen bombs and very accurate targeting methods. In 1950 the US was still limited to long range bombers, many or even most of which would get shot down and so they would have concentrated on the most critical military targets. Thus, even 10 million dead in 1950 seems very high unless they simply tried to maximize civilian casualties which it’s self would reasonably qualify as genocide. And again Russia lost ~27 million people in WWII and it isn’t considered a genocide of Russia so numbers alone while horrific don’t qualify.
- arethuza 6y ago
  I agree that a "preventative" war in 1950 would have been a very different thing from 1961. However, von Neumann was active as a political adviser to very close to his death and I was unaware that he had rejected the idea of such an attack - there were certainly others who favoured such a thing well into the 1960s.
  - Retric 6y ago
    Sure, though my understanding was this was specifically about an attack before Russia started mass production of atomic bombs. First strike after that point would likely have been vastly more costly on both sides. He was very much aware of the idea, which is why he’s credited in the name and acronym MAD. In the end the world avoided a large scale nuclear exchange, but when faced with a seemingly like war between two nuclear armed superpowers I can understand the argument.

Retric 6y ago

1961 the US had ICBM’s and large numbers of vastly more powerful Hydrogen bombs and very accurate targeting methods. In 1950 the US was still limited to long range bombers, many or even most of which would get shot down and so they would have concentrated on the most critical military targets. Thus, even 10 million dead in 1950 seems very high unless they simply tried to maximize civilian casualties which it’s self would reasonably qualify as genocide. And again Russia lost ~27 million people in WWII and it isn’t considered a genocide of Russia so numbers alone while horrific don’t qualify.

arethuza 6y ago
I agree that a "preventative" war in 1950 would have been a very different thing from 1961. However, von Neumann was active as a political adviser to very close to his death and I was unaware that he had rejected the idea of such an attack - there were certainly others who favoured such a thing well into the 1960s.
- Retric 6y ago
  Sure, though my understanding was this was specifically about an attack before Russia started mass production of atomic bombs. First strike after that point would likely have been vastly more costly on both sides. He was very much aware of the idea, which is why he’s credited in the name and acronym MAD. In the end the world avoided a large scale nuclear exchange, but when faced with a seemingly like war between two nuclear armed superpowers I can understand the argument.