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How can a precise date be selected so far in advance? Shouldn't it be based on the status of the pandemic? If they decided it is already a pretty good situation

How can a precise date be selected so far in advance? Shouldn't it be based on the status of the pandemic? If they decided it is already a pretty good situation, why not open now?

denago 6y ago
rhetorical? gov newsom is staring down recall
hctaw 6y ago
There's a difference between "we know everything will be ok by June 15" and "businesses should plan on reopening starting June 15." 60 or so days is not that far out, it's still cutting it close for a lot of businesses that need time to plan for reopenings. It's really a "not-before" deadline if anything.
dragonwriter 6y ago
It’s planned based on vaccination timelines, but subject to change based on other indicia. Frim the article: “Dr. Ghaly told reporters that the June 15th date was chosen because it falls about 8 weeks after all California residents become eligible for the COVID-19 vaccine. However, that date could shift if the vaccine supply is interrupted or if health officials see a spike in hospitalizations for the coronavirus.” > Shouldn't it be based on the status of the pandemic? That’s what its based on. There are strong expectations of how vaccination effects that. > If they decided it is already a pretty good situation They did not. (Though current trends in vaccination and other metrics are heading in a good direction.)
Jtsummers 6y ago
> Dr. Ghaly told reporters that the June 15th date was chosen because it falls about 8 weeks after all California residents become eligible for the COVID-19 vaccine. However, that date could shift if the vaccine supply is interrupted or if health officials see a spike in hospitalizations for the coronavirus. The selected date is a planned date with the possibility of it shifting. It's based on crunching the numbers. A large percentage of the state (nearly 50%) and a very large percentage of the older (and more vulnerable) population (around 70%) has already been vaccinated. Now that eligibility will be opened up to all residents and based on the rate of vaccinations the selected date means not just a simple majority but a vast majority of their population will have received at least one, if not both, doses by June 15th. EDIT: Some more number crunching. Per the article they're distributing 2 million doses a week. They have an approximate population of 40 million. At least 20 million have been vaccinated today. This gives them about 10 weeks (from now) to distribute 20 million doses (if they are to hit 100% or very near it) which fits with their current rate of vaccinations. So the date is reasonable on the surface using these projections depending on what their target threshold for vaccinations are. They should easily have 90% with at least one dose by then and can conceivably have 100% if everyone goes in for vaccinations (which won't happen, of course).
- pmiller2 6y ago
  You seem to be assuming that people getting their first dose will receive priority somehow in vaccination. As it is right now, those 20 million doses only represent ~15-25% of all Californians being fully vaccinated and around 30-35% having received at least one dose. There's mathematically no way 20 million more shots gets us to 90%. Source for numbers: https://www.latimes.com/projects/california-coronavirus-cases-tracking-outbreak/covid-19-vaccines-distribution/ https://www.latimes.com/projects/california-coronavirus-case...
  - nikolay 6y ago
    Also, won't the vaccine protection start expiring in June for those who got vaccinated in December 2020 and January 2021? Basically, you need to keep re-vaccinating around 7 million people on average every month and this is given the existing vaccine still protect you from the growing number of variants.
    - TheCoelacanth 6y ago
      I don't believe that the protection is expected to expire that quickly. That's simply how long we have verified that it lasts.
      - nikolay 6y ago
        Titres of antibodies drop in time. You can't expect this to last forever. Plus, vaccines are less effective against certain variants even at peak titres, so, who knows how effective a vaccine administered today will be in the variants in circulation 6 months from now. Plus, mass vaccinations apply evolutionary pressure and although they slow the spread and thus the variability, they force only new variants or straints to spread, which could send us back to square one.

How can a precise date be selected so far in advance? Shouldn't it be based on the status of the pandemic? If they decided it is already a pretty good situation, why not open now?

denago 6y ago

rhetorical? gov newsom is staring down recall

hctaw 6y ago

There's a difference between "we know everything will be ok by June 15" and "businesses should plan on reopening starting June 15." 60 or so days is not that far out, it's still cutting it close for a lot of businesses that need time to plan for reopenings. It's really a "not-before" deadline if anything.

dragonwriter 6y ago

It’s planned based on vaccination timelines, but subject to change based on other indicia. Frim the article: “Dr. Ghaly told reporters that the June 15th date was chosen because it falls about 8 weeks after all California residents become eligible for the COVID-19 vaccine. However, that date could shift if the vaccine supply is interrupted or if health officials see a spike in hospitalizations for the coronavirus.” > Shouldn't it be based on the status of the pandemic? That’s what its based on. There are strong expectations of how vaccination effects that. > If they decided it is already a pretty good situation They did not. (Though current trends in vaccination and other metrics are heading in a good direction.)

Jtsummers 6y ago

> Dr. Ghaly told reporters that the June 15th date was chosen because it falls about 8 weeks after all California residents become eligible for the COVID-19 vaccine. However, that date could shift if the vaccine supply is interrupted or if health officials see a spike in hospitalizations for the coronavirus. The selected date is a planned date with the possibility of it shifting. It's based on crunching the numbers. A large percentage of the state (nearly 50%) and a very large percentage of the older (and more vulnerable) population (around 70%) has already been vaccinated. Now that eligibility will be opened up to all residents and based on the rate of vaccinations the selected date means not just a simple majority but a vast majority of their population will have received at least one, if not both, doses by June 15th. EDIT: Some more number crunching. Per the article they're distributing 2 million doses a week. They have an approximate population of 40 million. At least 20 million have been vaccinated today. This gives them about 10 weeks (from now) to distribute 20 million doses (if they are to hit 100% or very near it) which fits with their current rate of vaccinations. So the date is reasonable on the surface using these projections depending on what their target threshold for vaccinations are. They should easily have 90% with at least one dose by then and can conceivably have 100% if everyone goes in for vaccinations (which won't happen, of course).

pmiller2 6y ago
You seem to be assuming that people getting their first dose will receive priority somehow in vaccination. As it is right now, those 20 million doses only represent ~15-25% of all Californians being fully vaccinated and around 30-35% having received at least one dose. There's mathematically no way 20 million more shots gets us to 90%. Source for numbers: https://www.latimes.com/projects/california-coronavirus-cases-tracking-outbreak/covid-19-vaccines-distribution/ https://www.latimes.com/projects/california-coronavirus-case...
- nikolay 6y ago
  Also, won't the vaccine protection start expiring in June for those who got vaccinated in December 2020 and January 2021? Basically, you need to keep re-vaccinating around 7 million people on average every month and this is given the existing vaccine still protect you from the growing number of variants.
  - TheCoelacanth 6y ago
    I don't believe that the protection is expected to expire that quickly. That's simply how long we have verified that it lasts.
    - nikolay 6y ago
      Titres of antibodies drop in time. You can't expect this to last forever. Plus, vaccines are less effective against certain variants even at peak titres, so, who knows how effective a vaccine administered today will be in the variants in circulation 6 months from now. Plus, mass vaccinations apply evolutionary pressure and although they slow the spread and thus the variability, they force only new variants or straints to spread, which could send us back to square one.