2 ms·
Keep in mind that the death rate still has to exist in a given time frame so only can only be extrapolated backwards and has to be recalculated annually. Strik
by playingchanges 5y ago
Keep in mind that the death rate still has to exist in a given time frame so only can only be extrapolated backwards and has to be recalculated annually.
Strikes me as similar to those who predict x% returns on their s&p index funds based on past stock market performance.
The future is always unknown.
- IgorPartola 5y agoI don’t think you can directly compare disease to the stock market. The stock market is a level 2 chaos system: predictions about it are direct inputs into the system affecting outcomes. Disease is generally much closer to level 1: it is random but unaffected by predictions. COVID is possibly mildly affected by predictions in that people might make travel plans based on predictions but I don’t think the majority of people are acting in ways that seriously change their transmission risk based on predictions.