3 ms·

> "Ultimately it just shows there are many more mysteries to this virus than solid answers." it's not the virus but rather our bodies that are so mysterious. t

> "Ultimately it just shows there are many more mysteries to this virus than solid answers." it's not the virus but rather our bodies that are so mysterious. the virus is relatively simple in comparison (which is different from saying we know everything about it, since we obviously don't).

lazide 6y ago
Nod, and we have a lot of practical ethical issues getting in the way (rightfully so) of figuring it out too. It is really hard to figure out realistic risks around exposures without doing field trials for instance. We could of had a much earlier vaccine rollout if we’d done double blind, intentional exposure studies (give someone the vaccine or saline, unknown to anyone, then stick them in the same room as a bunch of Covid patients with no protection) with early versions - which we could have done in March. We had 250+ candidates at the time, and about 3% were proven out, when I looked in Jan/Feb. To get somewhat useful data, you’d probably need to do that for at least a couple thousand folks (10k each arm would be my guess), so you’re looking at what, 5 million total in the study, 2.5 million exposed? Based on the best data we had at the time (assumed 3.5% fatality rate I believe?), that would have been 87k fatalities out of that group. [https://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/99/1/20-265892/en/ https://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/99/1/20-265892/en/ ], Currently seems like estimates are around 1-2% which would drop it to only 25-50k [https://www.nature.com/articles/s41392-021-00527-1 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41392-021-00527-1]. For many very, very good reasons that isn’t how we roll right now though, and we do have good technology for solving this either. Star Trek style ‘simulate’ mode is a looong way away in this space. Looking forward to it hopefully getting better soon though - a lot of money going into getting this figured out.
- clairity 6y ago
  yah, i think my underlying point is that it's certainly worth using this opportunity to further our understanding of the body and its immune system vs. getting infatuated with the virus itself, because the former is likely much more transferable knowledge than the latter. in general, we have trouble modulating our attention and resource allocation around unique events like this, and it behooves us to zoom out and put it in the proper context.

lazide 6y ago

Nod, and we have a lot of practical ethical issues getting in the way (rightfully so) of figuring it out too. It is really hard to figure out realistic risks around exposures without doing field trials for instance. We could of had a much earlier vaccine rollout if we’d done double blind, intentional exposure studies (give someone the vaccine or saline, unknown to anyone, then stick them in the same room as a bunch of Covid patients with no protection) with early versions - which we could have done in March. We had 250+ candidates at the time, and about 3% were proven out, when I looked in Jan/Feb. To get somewhat useful data, you’d probably need to do that for at least a couple thousand folks (10k each arm would be my guess), so you’re looking at what, 5 million total in the study, 2.5 million exposed? Based on the best data we had at the time (assumed 3.5% fatality rate I believe?), that would have been 87k fatalities out of that group. [https://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/99/1/20-265892/en/ https://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/99/1/20-265892/en/ ], Currently seems like estimates are around 1-2% which would drop it to only 25-50k [https://www.nature.com/articles/s41392-021-00527-1 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41392-021-00527-1]. For many very, very good reasons that isn’t how we roll right now though, and we do have good technology for solving this either. Star Trek style ‘simulate’ mode is a looong way away in this space. Looking forward to it hopefully getting better soon though - a lot of money going into getting this figured out.

clairity 6y ago
yah, i think my underlying point is that it's certainly worth using this opportunity to further our understanding of the body and its immune system vs. getting infatuated with the virus itself, because the former is likely much more transferable knowledge than the latter. in general, we have trouble modulating our attention and resource allocation around unique events like this, and it behooves us to zoom out and put it in the proper context.