4 ms·

How can someone make an informed decision with so many unknowns? Also, what would it take for the product to be pulled? Is there a clearly established rate of

How can someone make an informed decision with so many unknowns? Also, what would it take for the product to be pulled? Is there a clearly established rate of side effects? The death rate for my age group where I'm located based on government data is 1.1 deaths per 1k cases, with less than 1000 deaths total. This seems statistically insignificant to me, I would wager half or more of these cases had a different leading cause of death. Compared to 2018's flu death rate, based on CDC's wildly inflated 'assumed cases' number, the death rate of covid is 10x that of the flu, based on the reported cases of covid. Considering covid cases are likely extremely under reported as the vast majority of cases are asymptomatic, they're probably about the same. At this point, there's not enough data to convince me it's safer than getting the wild virus.

Pyramus 6y ago
Let's do a worst case calculation and assume you are a women aged 30. The infection fatality rate of Covid for this age and gender is 0.01 % or 1 in 10k (based on seroprevalence data not test data [1]). The fatality rate for the AZ vaccine in Germany is 1 in 200k, so you are 20 times more likely to die from Covid. You are correct that there is (and always will be) some uncertainty around the risks of the vaccine, but the same is true for Covid. Interestingly the vaccine is only appr. 6 months older than Covid (Nov 2019 vs Apr 2020) but more people have had Covid than vaccines. Still, uncertainties around Covid remain, e.g. we don't know the prevalence and severity of long Covid. [1] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2918-0/figures/2 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2918-0/figures/2
- linuxftw 6y ago
  Seems for the hypothetical person, covid mortality is no higher than background mortality.
  - Pyramus 6y ago
    Yes, this was one of the surprises early on that Covid risk matches background risk relatively closely [1]. Which is not a good thing, especially on a societal level, when you have this one thing killing people at the rate of all other things combined. [1] https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p087x9sf https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p087x9sf

Pyramus 6y ago

Let's do a worst case calculation and assume you are a women aged 30. The infection fatality rate of Covid for this age and gender is 0.01 % or 1 in 10k (based on seroprevalence data not test data [1]). The fatality rate for the AZ vaccine in Germany is 1 in 200k, so you are 20 times more likely to die from Covid. You are correct that there is (and always will be) some uncertainty around the risks of the vaccine, but the same is true for Covid. Interestingly the vaccine is only appr. 6 months older than Covid (Nov 2019 vs Apr 2020) but more people have had Covid than vaccines. Still, uncertainties around Covid remain, e.g. we don't know the prevalence and severity of long Covid. [1] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2918-0/figures/2 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2918-0/figures/2

linuxftw 6y ago
Seems for the hypothetical person, covid mortality is no higher than background mortality.
- Pyramus 6y ago
  Yes, this was one of the surprises early on that Covid risk matches background risk relatively closely [1]. Which is not a good thing, especially on a societal level, when you have this one thing killing people at the rate of all other things combined. [1] https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p087x9sf https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p087x9sf