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The point of TS is that once you get to 1.0001x smarter than human you get to wall really quickly. If the wall is 2x or 11x, self-improving AI will reach it in
by MatthewPhillips 15y ago
The point of TS is that once you get to 1.0001x smarter than human you get to wall really quickly. If the wall is 2x or 11x, self-improving AI will reach it in no time. And we'll still have tremendous benefits from it, no matter how close the wall is to human intelligence. AI only need be a tiny bit smarter than humans to achieve things such as interstellar travel, eternal life, etc.
- Retric 15y agoSlightly more intelligent than human is not the same as magic. Self improving AI is a nice theory but it assumes you can get better at everything at the same time without tradeoffs and that takes better hardware not just software. Science fiction is full of magic masquerading as technology, but it ignores the possibility that reality may not support that capability. Predicting the future requires more than simply extrapolating trends it also requires understanding physical limitations, early engines saw rapid increases in both HP and efficiency but that trend slowed down for a reason. EX: Literal eternal life requires a universe that is capable of lasting that long. If the fundamental laws of physics limit either the age of the universe or the amount of useful work that can be done then you at some point everything dies. So no we are down from eternal to just really long life. Also, 1.0001x a smart as a human is not really significant. 1,000 AI's 1.0001x smarter than a human is not going to be able to say beat 1 grand master at go without training or hundreds of years of preparation. I have no problem saying AI get's to quickly build better software, but building hardware at scale takes time.